WHEN LAKE ERIE FREEZES OVER!
Written by: Bob MetcalfeThis is sort of like "When Hell freezes over"... but not quite. We're getting to that point in the winter season when one of our lovely border lakes begins to quiet down for the remainder of the winter months.
As you may or may not know, Lake Erie is the shallowest, smallest lake of all the Great Lakes. Therefore, it is also the one that is most likely to freeze nearly or completely over during any given winter. As of the most recent update, Lake Erie is about 90% frozen. But Bob, why do I care?
Lake effect, that's why. Ice over the lake doesn't allow for any moisture to transfer to the lower levels of the atmosphere, which is the lifeblood of lake effect snow. Right now, if lake effect forms, its unimpressive. Freeze the lake completely over, and you have no effect whatsoever from Lake Erie. It's lake-effectless!
On the contrary, Lake Ontario isn't likely to suffer the same fate. It is much deeper than its nearest counterpart, therefore allowing it to hold on to much more heat. While near-shore ice is commonplace, it would take cold of unusual circumstances to freeze Lake Ontario over. But, the higher the percentage of lake surface covered by ice, the lower the potential for lake snow.
It reminds me of a sign outside of one of the local farmers shops on Norton: "Closed for the season, reason: freezin'!"
Good point about Lake Erie, Bob. In fact, Rochester has now bumped Buffalo down to 3rd place in the Golden Snowball Derby. I have a feeling we're going to be leaving them in the dust for the rest of the winter as we continue to have LES opportunities. In terms of no big synoptic storms...what's up with the low that is expected to cross our area next week? I see the Euro wants to weaken it before it reaches us and transfer its energy to a low off the atlantic. The GFS really packs those isobars tightly over us mid week, and the NAM has some odd slug of moisture retrograding down from the North Atlantic around hour 84. It almost looks like back a month or so ago when all of our precip was backing in from the east for a couple days due to the historic greenland high. It just seems to me that something "different" from what we've been used to is going to happen next week. What is your take?
ReplyDeleteI should also add that the GFS has been VERY consistent in broad brushing a good deal of moisture across the entire great lakes region, with plenty of upstream moisture as well, on a NW, and gusty wind later next week...regardless of what the questionable low does earlier in the week. Another indication that next week...at the very least, will be more active and interesting than this week.
ReplyDeleteI agree with you, I expect similar snowfall to what we saw in early January for a few days at least beginning Wednesday. Lots of moisture, good cyclonic curvature and plenty of cold air should provide decent snows off of Lake Ontario.
ReplyDeleteCan we get anything but Lake effect around here.
ReplyDeletehello.........FYI....lake Ontario has frozen completely over 2 times in history... maybe 3.....One in the 50"s and once in the 70's...check the history.........Scott you're the best
ReplyDeleteLet me know what you found out about the ontario freeze over on air..thanks mike
ReplyDeletewhatever it doesn't matter. Lake Ontario is NOT going to freeze over this year, so move on.
ReplyDeleteWhat type of winds are we looking at for next week. Northeast like we saw in early Jan? What im trying to say is, will it be more of a snow towards oswego, or the south shore of Ontario?
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteI remember when Channel 8 did a package on the Blizzard of '66 that struck in January, and which is said to be one of the greatest blizzards in Rochester's history. Well here's a exerpt from Joe Bastardi about what he thinks will happen next week. You may find it interesting:
"Both the JMA and EURO are all over the January 1966 upper low crashing into the Ohio Valley and through the East idea that I have been touting for next week. Fantastic upper presentations, and the Euro is now back to where it was, and where the JMA has been."
"The upper pattern next week is wild with that, a sub-516 upper low cruising through the Ohio Valley as the system coming into the West Coast on the weekend comes underneath and allows the northern branch to dive in. The GFS is losing this a bit but its too be expected."
There are two documented cases of Lake Ontario freezing over. 1875 and 1934, both incredibly cold winters!
ReplyDeleteEven on the EURO that Joe refers to, the 500mb low never closes off which leads me to believe that the storm won't bomb out until it's too far off the coast. I still think that significant snow is possible with cyclonic flow around that storm. Way too early for sure!
as of right now does it look like that low is going to jump over us as it weakens and transfers its energy off the coast next week?
ReplyDeleteWhen is all this suppose to start, if it all happens.
ReplyDeleteProbably not till around Tuesday of next week.
ReplyDeleteLet us be observers to yet another EPIC and HISTORIC snowstorm. If DC gets the 20-28 inches of snow that is forecasted they will be beating us this year in total snowfall. They will be beating all the major cities in New York. Amazing. I also do not see, in the models, what everyone is talking about for next week. The GFS shows a wimpy system with only light snow for us. ALL we will get is FAKE LAKE FLUFF.
ReplyDeleteTo the last commenter, I feel your frustration. This is Brian and my family lives in the bulls-eye of the 12 to 24 inches expected around Washington D.C. all I can do is live through their reports and pictures as I give them updates on a storm that I really wish we were going to get.
ReplyDeleteConcerning the GFS, we're not looking at the surface storm as much as we are the upper levels and the cold air coming in to get a nice lake response for middle of the week. We will keep monitoring this and even with the current storm it seems that the EURO was more the model of choice than the GFS.
I am starting to believe that all the bloggers who are frustrated about the lack of huge winter storms are young whipper snappers that have not really experienced a huge storm or blizzard.
ReplyDeletePersonally, I am happy the storms keep going south. I guess the older you get the more you dislike winter.
When I was younger, I always looked forward to that huge blizzard that would close school for a week, and produced drifts halfway up the telephone poles. I will never forget the blizzard of 77. The only way to get in and out of the town of Hamlin was by snow mobile. Drifts were as high as roof tops. Roads were closed for weeks, and some had to be dynamited to open up.
Now, think for a moment all you people who want the big one. Could you survive a week with roads being closed? Would you like climbing out of your second story window and climbing down your roof to get outside?
And what about when all that snow melts. You want to deal with the flooding?
Sure, I know some depend on big storms for their lively hood, but lets all be careful on what we wish for.
What about people who make 50% of there income on snow removal...
ReplyDeleteWell, the way the winters have been going lately, I quess the ones that depend on snow for their income, better start thinking about a career move. Or maybe locating more to the south. :)
ReplyDelete