WINTER SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL SO FAR
Written By: Scott Hetsko
While Western New York has not had a ton of snow this Winter, cold air has kept it around especially in February. Usually in El Nino Winters we see a fair amount of mild days but thanks to a fairly persistent Northeast trough in the upper levels we've stayed frosty. Nearly everyday this month had been below average which has kept snow on the ground everyday of the month. Temperatures overall this month will end up about 2 degrees below normal.
A broad, cold Northwest flow of Canadaian air will mean more cold and lake snow showers through Friday with the potential for another storm getting close to Rochester early next week. Early thoughts are that the storm will again miss the region off to our Southeast. Look for some milder days in the middle of March! We haven't seen the mercury rise above 40 degrees in over three weeks!
Another miss, then March comes, and milder by the middle of it. Time is RAPIDLY running out for anything substantial to hit us. Could this be the first winter ever that we didn't see a single moderate to major snowstorm?
ReplyDeleteCertainly not! For most of the first half of the 20th century, Rochester averaged between 25-50" of snow in Winter. The snowiest winters have only been recently.
ReplyDeleteScott I read this last sentence from the NWS forecast discussion. Could you explain what it means?
ReplyDelete"INTERESTING MODEL SOLUTIONS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD WITH BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF CLOSING OFF A 515 DECAMETER H5 LOW RIGHT OVER US."
Hope you are right about another miss.
ReplyDeleteWhy the low (very low) totals earlier in the last century? It would seem the lake alone would be good for 50+ inches per year. When I moved here in the 70s average snowfall was about 88"--now it's 100".
Seems colder and wetter every year--so I guess some place else is warmer and drier.
There is no doubt that next week will be cold and sometimes snowy around here. The early week storms energy will miss us for the most part but a closed low in Western Maine mid to late week would certainly be enough with the cold air coming from Eastern Canada to produce sizable snow around here late in the week.
ReplyDeleteFebruary as a whole will end up at least 1 degree below normal with maybe near normal snow if we get a bunch at the end.
A 515 decameter low is the same as a 5150m low on a constant 500 millibar chart. That's the height where the pressure is 500 millibars! So the lower that number corresponds to colder air in that column. Operationally speaking it would spell a prolonged period of snow and cold around here.
ReplyDelete