THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT (SORT OF)
Written by: Bob Metcalfe
With little weather of interest in our near future, I've been looking for the next sign of change in our region. I have to admit though, this sun is absolutely fantastic. I think I saw 20 people walking their dogs this afternoon on my street. I have spring fever, and the only prescription is more temperature!
Anyways, images at left are (top) the Euro for Thu AM and (bottom) corresponding time from the GFS. A little discrepency there eh? (sorry, I'm partly of Canadian origin, however I am very bitter about their win over us in the Olympics)
It's times like these where mid-range forecasting can be pleasantly challenging. I remember a professor of mine in college calling on us to give a forecast like this and say what we thought. Often, we leaned on the models with all of our weight and said "big changes loom late this week". But he would always say "what's bringing the change?" He equated it to momentum. An object will continue at the same rate until a force acts upon it. So for instance, in order for me to say it'll get noticeably colder by next weekend, I've really got to see a well developed low bring the cold air in. Well the GFS tells that story, but the Euro... not so much. And as many of you know, we aren't fans of calling storms before they cross the Rockies. How many times have we seen paths look completely different on 24 or 48 hour forecasts?!
Don't get me wrong, the sun is going to hide behind the clouds MUCH more after Wednesday. As for this cold air returning, Mother Nature has some proving to do to me!
Bob,
ReplyDeleteThis weather is absolutely beautiful. It's putting even the most avid snow lovers in the mood for blossoming trees and the smell of freshly mowed grass. But it's almost a little eerie that it's so nice for so many days in a row in the first week of March. Especially after such an uneventful (as far as major synoptic storms are concerned) winter overall. You would think that this would be the perfect candidate year to have March balance things out and kick our butts. But still nothing. I can't help but wonder when the other shoe drops, and it will! I just hope we don't see another cold and rainy summer this year!
problem is, even if this storm come right at us on a perfect track for snow, there just isn't any cold air in place, nor is there any real cold air close enough to get drawn in for us to get any type of snowstorm. Just a rain event, with maybe some elevation snow mixing in from time to time.
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