WARM MARCH & APRIL = GLOBAL WARMING?
Written by: Brian Neudorff
After reading Scott's post about how the first 10 days of April were the warmest ever recorded here in Rochester, then seeing that March 2010 was the warmest March in the satellite record, going back to 1979. Then I remember that on April 7th (Almost a week ago) New York City surpassed 90 degrees for a new record high this got me thinking about a couple of things.
The one question I could hear over and over in my head was "Is this record setting warmth related to climate change or global warming?" Even though no one has asked me this question yet there have been a lot comments here on this blog recently about the blooming of flowering trees and the early onset of the growing season that it got me thinking. Even I had to think maybe there was something to all this.
One weather event doesn't prove or disprove climate change, and in all honesty, I don't think the warm start to spring and the abrupt end to winter is indicative of current climate change. During the past 6 winters in which I've lived along Lake Erie & now Lake Ontario I noticed, up until this winter, that winters were starting later but continuing into early to mid parts of April.
I am not denying that the climate is changing, and it is very possible we could look back on this winter and say, "Wow those events really did occur because of a changing climate." We just don't have enough data or information to say either way. We just report it and move on. I think weather events like these that stand out or set new records are important because they get us thinking. They almost force us to look and understand the weather and climate around us. When I do school visits and speak for various community groups I find a lot of people who don't truly understand the weather around them.
One of the most common stories I get from someone is when they tell me about the winters they remember as a kid back when they were 10 years old. They go on and explain that they remember roads and schools being shut down and the snow well it was up to their waist. After they tell me that story I will usually ask how tall were you at 10. Usually a light bulb goes off and they realize (some not all) that they are a lot bigger now than they were when they were a kid. I also explain that the ability to forecast snow and the removal of it has also improved.
I want you to know that I am on a mission to become more educated when it comes to the science of climate change. I feel that I owe that to all the viewers and students who ask about climate change. I'm a meteorologist not a climatologist, I recognize that, and if if you look back to the post I did on March 31 about the George Mason University survey that Bob, Scott and myself participated in you will see that there is indeed a big divide between those who present weather on TV (Meteorologist and Weathercasters) and climate scientists when it comes to the topic of climate change.
Although the record setting warmth in April may not be a result of climate change, it is part of an interesting trend as you can see in the graph below. This graph is from UCAR (University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) it shows the ratios between record highs and record lows per decade.
In the last two decades (1990s and 2000s) record high temperatures far outpace record lows across the U.S.
I have a feeling many of you will read that article and have a lot to say afterward. As I have stated here many times, I don't argue with the data. Scott and I have both agreed something is happening and our climate is getting warmer. We also agree that you can not deny that we as humans aren't having some kind of impact with all of our waste and emissions. The question I still have as I research all of this is how much of this is our fault and in the end how can we become cleaner and better protect our home.
I'm sorry if this post feels disjointed but I had a lot of information and thoughts I wanted to share. To tell you the truth, I have even more opinions and thoughts that I have yet to share. I would love hear yours. If I have time later this afternoon I will respond.
Brian,
ReplyDeleteI love how candid and genuine you guys are on this blog. You guys are the real deal, and we all appreciate that.
As for the global warming connection. I, too, find myself scratching my head and wondering if just maybe some of this warming is part of the larger trend. As we seem to agree, the earth HAS gotten warmer in the last several decades. That question of how much is natural vs anthropogenic is still nagging, however.
The thing that strikes me the most about all of this is that it seem that even when the cold air wins out for awhile, and it seems like proof that the climate is balancing itself out, the warm air always finds a way to come back bigger and stronger than the cold air ever was. Perfect example of that is this winter into spring. The warm air just won't let the cold air have its day in the sun without showing it up big time. That may be a simple way of describing it, but I think you get my point. It sure does have me wondering more.
A couple things to consider, however.
ReplyDelete1)Parts of England are experiencing their LATEST bloom date ever. And they have also experienced yet another bout of snow last week.
2)Marine animals have died of at alarming numbers in Florida due to its coldest winter in 30 years.
3) Siberia has just experienced one of its coldest winters in recorded history.
4)China has just received yet another highly unusual late season snowstorm.
5) The Arctic sea ice has just recovered to levels not seen in at least 8 years
Here's a my theory. The NAO and AO were so very negative throughout the winter, and that allowed the cold air to get pushed well to the south. In some cases, all the way to Cuba. Doesn't it make sense that it exhausted the cold air more than normal, and once the sun began to get higher in the sky, the cold air snapped back into the Arctic like a rubber band? So basically, the pattern just drained the cold air so much throughout the winter, that it had little energy left for our area come April.
ReplyDeleteTell me where i'm wrong with that theory...
To the first comment: I've always used a rubber band stretched out then pulled down in the center to explain how the atmosphere balances itself out. Through up and down oscillations can also help explain the Jet Stream and other oscillations we see in the atmosphere so very astute of you to notice the balance we can see from season to season.
ReplyDeleteTo the second comment: I go back to what I say in the post, you can't use a weather event or events to prove or disprove climate change or warming. All that you listed are extreme events. One would argue (trust me I've seen them on other sites) that those events and those we saw this winter and spring along the east coast I.E. blizzards, torrential rains & record setting warmth are "consistent with" what scientist have been warning with climate change.
You make very good points and we don't know if all, some or none of these events are related to the current changes in climate but it still makes you think and maybe shows us that we need do what we can to take care of this planet our home. I don't think anyone can disagree with that. The disagreement comes from how we do it and the politics.
I personally think that it comes down to pure logic. CO2 helps to heat the boundary layer. Is that agreed upon? And CO2 has steadily increased to levels never seen in modern history. Therefore, CO2 is contributing, probably largely, to the earth's warming. Within that warming there are hiccups, of course, but the overall trend is onward and upward.
ReplyDeleteLike you said, Brian, what we do with this knowledge is an entirely different debate. Unfortunately, human beings aren't always the best intentioned species. And the push to capitalize, manipulate and control is unfortunate at best, and catastrophic, at worst.
Hi Brian, I got a question about global warming. If global warming is really happening what would be the visible effects where we live? I hear all about the arctic and mountain glaciers and rising oceans and stuff, but never hear about local effects. cant it actually be a good thing? I dont see anyone complaining about this early growing season
ReplyDeletei don't really have an opinion about global warming, but it does seem like something wierd is happening lately, on all levels. the sun is being wierd, the surface of the earth is doing wierd things and the plates under us are getting wacky. i just feel like something is up, and its not good. maybe a signal of a coming catastrophe?
ReplyDeleteHere is part of a comment I made on March 24th 2010 regarding the same question about climate change locally:
ReplyDeleteThat's an interesting question regarding what kind of impact Climate Change would have on our region. In a paper published in 2002 in the Journal of Great Lakes Research, basically said with warming temperatures, the Lakes would freeze over or get as cold so less heavy lake effect events and even less snow and a lot more lake effect rain events. Check it out here
Also from the website: Union of Concerned Scientists - There concern was more with lake levels both of the Great Lakes and Finger Lakes and all the implications that would have. Like ecosystems, available water for drinking and using for agriculture. Also using water for hydro power.
I used to live out toward Buffalo, and I've experienced a couple heavy lake effect rain events in late September and October. They can get pretty intense, actually, with embedded t-storms and very heavy rainfall rates. Buffalo has been known to experience poor drainage flooding as a result of heavy lake effect rain in the early fall.
ReplyDeleteAs for the lake levels, I understand the theory that less freezing = increased evaporation. But its possible our climate could become even wetter as it gets warmer, helping to cancel out the potential for any significant level falls.
I would argue that, at least locally, we would benefit greatly. An increased growing season and warmer temps might be troublesome for some crops, but the benefits of increased food yield would surpass the downfalls.
I went on NOAA's climate data for Rochester and noticed during the famed horrible winters of the past, as far as snow goes really did not exist!! In FACT according to these records, the winters of the 40s 50s, 60s and most of the 70s really lacked snowfall relative to the 80s 90s and the past ten years. In FACT Rochester's snowiest winters on average have come since the mid 1980s. Actually I am soon to be 48 years old and the winters I remember as a young boy were more variable and much less snowy!! The FACTS prove it!!
ReplyDeleteYou're right. Some decades had pathetic winters when it comes to total snowfall. I really don't know what our ancesters were talking about. I guess like Brian said, the machinery and technology wasn't as good, so it was harder on them to get by when weather was harsh. I guess that's where its coming from. But still....I can't imagine a year with 50 or 60 inches of snow like happened so often back then. Just pathetic.
ReplyDeleteI don't know why it's so hard to believe that CO2 is the cause of global warming. Given all of the evidence available, i'd really like an explanation as to why highly educated meteorologists are still "unsure."
ReplyDeleteDid I ever say CO2 wasn't causing climate change. I will say I have read some interesting arguments from other scientist that say CO2 is a response to the warming not the cause.
ReplyDeleteYou want to know why "highly educated meteorologist are still 'unsure'" Unsure of what? I've said the climate is changing and you can't escape that, as you pointed out the date is there for everyone to see. I also agree that we play a role in the current changes in the climate but I stop short of placing all the blame on us, why? Because I want to know more, I see some compelling theories I also feel that there is more natural occurrences going on that could also be playing a role. I just ask the question what's the responsibility break down when it comes to man vs. natures role in our current warming.
I am for protecting this planet. I believe we need to find alternative forms of energy that are cleaner and really more efficient. I personally don't believe taxes on carbon, on industry will fix this problem. I think it will only make most of us poorer and more dependent on government and other aide. -Brian
I am with you Brian. We need to be responsible when placing blame, and I don't think cap and trade is the answer. Our climate is probably changing, but if it didn't would it be called climate?? I am all for protecting this planet, but I am also for reaping the rewards this planet has to offer. The past 100 years is a blip when it comes to climate and weather. We need to be careful about who, what or it is to blame if at all. Then again that wouldn't raise revenue for the government, would it??
ReplyDelete