COULD BE AN ACTIVE HURRICANE SEASON

Written by: Brian Neudorff

Yesterday morning NOAA released their seasonal outlook on the Atlantic Hurricane season. They expect an “active to extremely active” hurricane season. NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of the following ranges:

• 14 to 23 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
• 8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
• 3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

The outlook ranges exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Expected factors supporting this outlook are:

• Upper atmospheric winds conducive for storms. Wind shear, which can tear apart storms, will be weaker since El Niño in the eastern Pacific has dissipated. Strong wind shear helped suppress storm development during the 2009 hurricane season.
• Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures – up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average – are now present in this region.
• High activity era continues. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in sync, leading to more active hurricane seasons. Eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top ten for the most named storms with 2005 in first place with 28 named storms.

Many of you might be thinking, "Yeah we've seen these forecast before, just look at the last 2 seasons. Above average and then they turned out below average." I am not a big fan of long range forecasting. Probably one of my weakest areas. I can say that I have seen and heard a lot of forecasters thinking the same thing about this upcoming season. Even saw a blog post by AccuWeather's Senior Forecaster comparing this season to 2005. Bastardi is predicting a total of 16-18 storms this season. To put that in perspective, only eight years in the 160 years of records have had 16 or more storms in a season.

Another common question I've received is the likelihood that the Northeast or even Long Island, NY gets a hurricane this year. Many would agree that the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast are well overdue for a tropical storm or hurricane. The last hurricane to hit the Northeast was Bob back in 1991. I remember that storm cause I was in it when I was visiting family in Connecticut. There's no way to say, "Definitely, this is the year one makes it up the coast" but with every hurricane season anyone along the coast should always be prepared.