START OF THE 2010 TROPICAL SEASON?

Written by: Brian Neudorff

Here is the Satellite image from Monday morning of what could be the first tropical system of the 2010 season. Actually if it does get a name it would be more of a subtropical storm versus a pure tropical system. What is the difference? Here are some definitions:

Subtropical Cyclone: A low pressure system that develops over subtropical waters that initially has a non-tropical circulation but in which some elements of tropical cyclone cloud structure are present. Subtropical cyclones can evolve into tropical cyclones. Subtropical cyclones are generally of two types: (1) An upper level cold low with circulation extending to the surface and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the pressure center. (2) A mesoscale cyclone originating in or near a frontolyzing zone of horizontal wind shear, with radius of maximum sustained winds generally less than 30 miles. The entire circulation sometimes encompasses an area initially no more than 100 miles in diameter. These generally short-lived, marine cyclones may vary in structure from cold to warm core.

Tropical Cyclone: A warm-core, nonfrontal low pressure system of synoptic scale that develops over tropical or subtropical waters and has a definite organized surface circulation.

Subtropical Storm: A subtropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 34 kt (39 mph or 63 kph) or more.

Tropical Storm: A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) ranges from 34 kt (39 mph or 63 kph) to 63 kt (73 mph or 118 kph).

This current system is fighting a lot of shear and is not very organized. It is forecasted to move to the North-Northeast towards the Carolina coasts. This will probably produce some very rough weather along the coast of North and South Carolina. If it does take on subtropical conditions the National Hurricane Center could give this a name and if they do it would be named Alex.