YES! FINALLY WARMER AIR WILL RETURN!
Written By: Scott Hetsko
While medium range computer guidance has been back and forth on whether the air will warm this weekend, we have not. I still am confident in low to mid 80s both Saturday and Sunday. We will be on the "dirty" edge of a 500 mb ridge which will mean the threat of scattered afternoon storms both days.
To have the best chance of remaining dry, we would need to be under the center of the ridge and unfortunately that will be enjoyed by folks in the Mid Atlantic states.
Dew points will increase as well which will add to the instability available in the atmosphere. Both days will have several hours of dry weather but just have an eye on the sky and an ear for thunder. Enjoy the warmer temperatures!
How high will the dewpoints get this weekend? Does that mean the nights this weekend will be balmy warm?
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteIs flooding a possibility this weekend if we receive a couple rounds of MCS?
Scott,
ReplyDeleteWhat happened to your Summer forecast? I thought you said the first half of the summer was going to be hot and dry, and the second half cooler and wet.
It looks like it might be the other way around or maybe will be seeing a repeat of last summer.
What are your thoughts?
It was VERY parched early on. I think we're we're in a vicous cycle now, however. Once the soil moisture starts getting up there, it makes it more difficult to get too warm, at least not many 90 degree days. It also helps perpetuate instability showers and t-storms to keep the soil moist. All in all, it's a heck of a lot better than last year's crummy cold summer.
ReplyDeleteBTW, that last past wasn't speaking for Scott or anything. I was just throwing in my two cents, for what it's worth.
ReplyDelete***past = post
ReplyDeleteLong range forecasting is like throwing a medicine ball in a waste basket on home plate at Yankee Stadium from the center field wall. When forecasting long term, I'm thinking in general and I still expect us to get a decent amount of warm if not hot days. You'll recall that May began cool and wet but the second half of the month was very warm and dry compares to climate.
ReplyDeleteWe're only 10 days into June, lots of time left fortunately! This weekend has proved very difficult due to the chance for little spokes of energy throwing storms around. Any sun and we'll easily rocket into the mid 80s but more clouds and showers mean at least 10 degrees cooler!!!
Rochester weather is nothing if not a challenge!
Scott,
ReplyDeleteWhat have you found to be the most exciting weather event to forecast, observe since you've been in Rochester?
Any one thing about our weather that really gets your blood adrenaline flowing?
Hmmm, great question. As far as "exciting" I would have to say last summer's tornadoes and our live coverage was probably the most exciting and busy time I've had on the air.
ReplyDeleteApril 2003's ice storm was my most challenging forecast because there was a very fine line as to who was going to get the worst of the ice on that weekend.
The record snowy and cold month of January 2004 comes to mind as well. It's always fun around here!
Something tells me you wouldn't be very happy forecasting for San Diego lol. I know i'd be bored out of my mind out there.
ReplyDeleteI was living in the city of Buffalo during the epic lake effect storm of December 2001. That was when 80" of snow fell in literally just one week. Crippled the entire city. That had to be the most exciting weather event i've ever lived through. Now I live here in Rochester. Could anything like that ever happen in Rochester, Scott?
ReplyDeleteNo I would HATE forecasting in the Southwest. Only once in a while doesn't it get fun there. As for the chances of Rochester getting a 80" lake snow, never say never but it would be a once in a 1,000 year thing.
ReplyDeleteMost of our lake snow occurs on a much shorter "fetch" or distance the cold air crosses the lake. As a result, we usually get multiband lake snows which would never be able to be that productive.
In March 1999, we recorded nearly 40" from the 3rd through the 5th. That is the most I know of falling in that short a period of time. Rochester's record monthly snow is just over 60" since 1884 so 80" would be quite a feat.
That's okay because, believe it or not, Rochester actually averages more snow than Buffalo. Not by much, but a few inches nontheless. And we have beat Buffalo in total season snowfall for 21 out of the last 30 years. We usually gain and exceed Buffalo the second half of the winter.
ReplyDeleteScott, that March 1999 event you spoke of actually made national news. Here's an old article from the New York Times about the big storm in Rochester:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/07/nyregion/after-the-blizzard-rochester-is-walloped-by-a-second-snowstorm.html?pagewanted=1