DON'T WORRY ABOUT THE COLD - SUMMER RETURNS
Written by: Brian Neudorff
"Ahhhhhhhh" That's the sound of all of our air conditioners getting a break. For some the recent cool down may be too cold, but for it's just right. Temperatures are ranging about 5 degrees below average and will get cooler as the next storm system arrives on Wednesday. Highs for Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s with rain Wednesday midday until Thursday midday.
"Ahhhhhhhh" That's the sound of all of our air conditioners getting a break. For some the recent cool down may be too cold, but for it's just right. Temperatures are ranging about 5 degrees below average and will get cooler as the next storm system arrives on Wednesday. Highs for Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s with rain Wednesday midday until Thursday midday.
Once that system passes we will begin to see a pattern change across the country. A trough will begin to develop in the west causing a ridge to build hear in the east. This will allow us to get very warm, back into the mid 80s by the weekend and also we will feel more moisture in the air. The combination of high heat and humidity will allow for times of scattered t'storms. There will also be a weak disturbace moving through the region that will also act as a spark for some of those storms.
Brian,
ReplyDeleteHow much additional rain does it look like we'll get with the Wednesday / Thursday system?
i've been hearing about how the placement and amplitude of the upcoming ridge will make a difference in how warm we get this weekend and early next week. The NWS has shaved off several degrees from the mid/upper 80's to now only around 80 this weekend. Meanwhile, it seems every other network and website has us between 85-89 this weekend. Now I see the latest 12z GFS has a front cross our area early Monday.
ReplyDeleteMy question is, does it still look like mid/upper 80's this weekend, or are you leaning toward trending slightly cooler?
Seems to me that we still got a shot at low to mid 80s Saturday and Sunday. The front will arrive Sunday evening with storms ahead of it possible. Saturday now looks to be the nicer of the two days, 84 is our forecast. Cooler air under a huge Canadian ridge next week.
ReplyDeleteAs for the NWS, in my opinion they live on MOS too much and seems to change their forecast at the whim of MOS data. Not a good way to forecast in my view.
They also have a hell of a time correctly forecasting LES on a WNW wind for Monroe county, as well. I've lost track of the numerous 5" - 7" snowfalls that hit Monroe county that the NWS didn't seem to think needed an Advisory.
ReplyDeleteI also like how when they issue headlines, and when the expected storm that prompted the headlines doesn't materialize, they just keep the headlines up through the whole duration as if it ended up happening. I think we call that ignoring the reality of the situation.
But I digress...
Thanks for passing along the great lakes water levels link, Scott. I've been searching high and low for a good site that plots the levels like that. The recent rains should keep that upward trend going for the lake levels.
ReplyDeleteBTW, Lake Erie is at a whopping 7 degrees above average for this date. It's already up to 65. Lake Ontario, before an episode of upwelling, was at 67 a couple days ago! I can't wait to see how things pan out come autumn when those toasty lakes meet the cold air of the Arctic. I got a feeling about next winter, man. It's gonna be one to remember!
I agree about the NWS discussion. All I can say is thank goodness for the local meteorologists who know what's going on and understand the local phenomenons. If all of our forecasts came exclusively from Buffalo, we'd be much LESS informed.
ReplyDeleteI have a question about, what seemed to me to be, one of the more unique storms i've ever seen - The late February 2010 storm.
ReplyDeleteHow rare is it to have a storm back in like it did, with the pressure crashing as intensely as it did near NYC, and then to have the rain/snow line actually back in from the Northeast. It rained across northern NY, yet snowed here. And then that bizarre event on the night that it arrived when the temps dropped unexpectedly from near 30 to the teens in some locations. It just seemed to me to be one of the most bizarre storms i've ever witnessed.
How rare was an event like that, or is it more common than one might think?