EARL INTENSIFIES - EAST COAST ON NOTICE

Written by: Brian Neudorff

Over the last 24 hours hurricane Earl continue to rapidly intensify over the northern Leeward Islands. As of the 8am EDT update on Monday Earl was a category 2 hurricane with 110 mph sustained winds. That is just 1 mph shy of being a category 3 hurricane. I expect by the 11am EDT update that Earl will be a major hurricane, category 3 or greater.

The forecast path of Earl continues to be in doubt. The National Hurricane Center keeps pushing it's track more to the west. It is still about 200 miles off the coast of Cape Hatteras, NC. The latest computer models that have come out this morning also move the path of Earl closer to the United States. Some that I have seen have it with in 100 miles.

None of them actually have Earl making landfall in the U.S.(where the center of the storm cross over land), but it's definitely too close for comfort especially for those who live along the coast from the Carolinas up to Cape Cod.

The average forecast track error 4 to 5 days out is 200 to 300 miles. That really makes it very difficult to know how or even if Earl will have an impact on the United States. In my professional opinion, as Earl gets closer and continues to intensify I think Earl definitely gets with in 100 miles of both Hatteras and possible Cape Cod.

While in a chat with other broadcast meteorologists this morning, many of whom work along the east coast, one shared an interesting map with me from 1985.


This doesn't mean Earl will be the next Gloria to come up and the east coast, it has a similar path and unlike Gloria who passed about 150 miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, Earl moved right over them. Because Earl is farther south it makes me more cautious that it will end up with a path that is farther west than what is currently forecasted.

The ridge currently over the east and the trough that will move through the Great Lakes later in the week will help in determining where Earl eventually goes. A lot will play out between now and then but you know it will be fun to watch how this storm develops and progresses closer to the United States.