PATH OF EARL INCHING CLOSER TO EAST COAST
Written by: Brian Neudorff
Earl became a category 4 hurricane Monday evening and has maintained it's strength with maximum sustained of 135 mph over night. It appears that Earl is going through an eyewall replacement cycle. We could see a decrease in intensity when an update is issued at a 11am by the National Hurricane Center but just because it may weaken doesn't it mean it will stay that way. Once it finishes the replacement cycle, Earl could be strong and possibly reach category 5 strength later tonight or tomorrow with winds over 150 mph. It will remain over favorable conditions to allow for possible intensification. The last category 5 to form in the Atlantic basin was Felix in September of 2007.
The track of Earl continues to show some concern for those along the east coast from the Carolinas up to Maine. In the last few updates the forecast path from the National Weather Surface has moved more to the west closer to the eastern coast. I don't think Earl will make landfall in the U.S. but it will I think it will be close enough for a grazing blow. Hurricane force winds currently extend out 70 miles from Earl's center where tropical storm force winds are out 200 miles.
Some good news is most of the models keep Earl farther to the east but, considerable uncertainty continues. Most of Earl's path depends on how long this ridge of high pressure sticks around the eastern half of the United States and timing of a trough that is expected along the east coast by Friday. If this can swing through sooner then it should help in keeping Earl more to the east.
Hurricane Earl Resources – [NHC Earl Tracker] [NOAA Earl Satellite Images] [NHC Earl Public Advisory] [NHC Earl Forecast Discussion] [Earl Forecast Model Plots] [NOAA Buoy Observations] [NOAA tidal gauges] [StormPulse.com] [Wunderground.com Earl Resources] [Skeetobite Weather Earl Forecast Intensity and Path] [AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center] [AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center]
TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORMS:
Although not a major player at this point, tropical storm Fiona formed behind Earl last night. Currently the National hurricane center has Fiona remaining a tropical storm and staying farther east than Earl, but only time will tell.
This question is to whoever wants to answer it...hopefully it makes sense and isn't too tough to answer in a blog. But here it goes:
ReplyDeleteWhat causes the cold air to "build up" in the Arctic around this time of year? Where does it come from? I mean, we hear about cold air arriving to the lower lattitudes, but that's because they originated somewhere else (the Arctic) and then dropped south. But what about the actual place of origin (the pole)...where does THAT cold air come from? does it literally build, or stack up, then chunks of it break off and drop south? If so, what allowed it to build up in the first place? How can cold air just form out of nowhere?
Thanks in advance.