TROPICS REMAIN ACTIVE: IGOR & JULIA

Written by: Brian Neudorff

Friday September 10th was the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, and the season remains active. We have two named storms, hurricane Igor and tropical storm Julia as well as an area of development in the Caribbean.

The image above is of hurricane Igor from Monday morning. Dr. Jeff Masters over at Wunderground.com made this comment about Igor and I have to agree, "There are few sights in the natural world more impressive than a hurricane near maximum intensity." As a category 4, Igor is very close to being a category 5 hurricane. Its maximum sustain winds are 150 mph, just 6 mph away from category 5 strength. Igor is the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic in three years. The last hurricane stronger than Igor was Category 5 Hurricane Felix of 2007.

Igor will experience little shear as well as stay over warm waters in the Atlantic over the next couple of days. It will most likely remain a major hurricane (category 3 or greater) for the next three or four days. The only weakening this storm might encounter is from its own design. Major and massive hurricanes like Igor go through eyewall replacement cycles, where the eyewall collapses and a new eyewall forms from an outer spiral band. This will weaken the hurricane by 10 - 20 mph when it occurs, but Igor will probably regain its lost intensity when the cycle completes.



Not much change in the current forecast track of Igor. There is still a lot of area for this storm to cover but current forecasts do not have Igor being a threat to the United States. In his blog, Jeff Masters noted that based on past tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current location, about 15% of them have gone on to hit the east coast of the United States.

It will should remain on its current westerly movement until Tuesday or Wednesday when it encounters a broad area of low pressure in the western Atlantic. This will help to turn Igor to the northwest.

As you can see from the above forecast. It appears more likely that when Igor makes its turn to the northwest Bermuda could be right in the path of this storm. I want to point out that the cone does get much wider as we head into end of the weekend and weekend. There are small but possible scenarios where the storm could make a late turn or stay on a course more west than northwest. If that would occur, then once again the east coast of the United States would need to monitor Igor.

Over the weekend Julia was also named in the Atlantic. It is now located just west of the Cape Verdes Islands and will continue to the northwest. It will experience favorable conditions to become a hurricane by possibly Wednesday but won't have enough time to become a major hurricane. Julia will curve out to see and not be a threat to the United States.



The final area that we are watching is a cluster and organized area of showers and thunderstorms south of Jamaica. Although it has some low wind shear and over very warm waters dry air to its north is keep this area from becoming better organized.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE TROUGH MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA JAMAICA CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

We will just have to watch and see but appears this may not be a threat to the Unites States either and stay south affecting the Yucatan Peninsula.