DON'T GET TOO EXCITED JUST YET
Written By: Scott HetskoArctic high pressure building South from Central Canada will feed plenty of cold air into the Northeast all of next week. At the same time along a tight temperature gradient in the Southern part of the U.S., low pressure will begin to take shape over Colorado Tuesday.
Given the placement of broad high pressure draped over the Great Lakes, there is little doubt that the storm will ride into Kentucky and begin to track further East Northeast Wednesday afternoon. Snow will overspread the area during the day Wednesday. Snow would likely continue into Thursday morning. My gut says we will get a decent, plow-able snowfall on the order of 3-6" or 4-8" from this guy. Unless the energy transfer to the coast results in a bombing storm near NYC, this system will be a quick mover.
Thanks for the update Scott. I was just wondering how high forecast confidence is for this one so far? Are the different computer models agreeming more than usual already or is there a lot of disparencies?
ReplyDeleteThe thing to keep in mind is that it's still 120 to 144 hours out. Track will be best known Monday or Tuesday, right now it's just a possibility even with broad agreement.
ReplyDeleteScott
Hopefully everything continues to look good for our area. In any case, I probably got a little carried away with my totals on the previous post. But that's what the real experts are here for to keep things straight. In the meantime, I'll be watching the forecasts and models with a caution. Like Scott said, don't wanna get too excited yet.
ReplyDeleteWell Guy's, let's hope this one lands on us!! We have been waiting, complaining, whining, and bitching about wanting one :) DK, Henry or whoever wants to chime in, where would we want that LOW to be parked for us to have the best shot at A LOT OF snow? I pray that it does not get robbed by one on the east coast!!
ReplyDeleteLooks like it will be a fairly quick mover (18-24 hour)event but track looks pretty good for us right now. If the track is too far North (NY/PA) border, mixed precipitation could become an issue.
ReplyDeleteScott
Scott,
ReplyDeleteYou might have already come across this, but here's the latest thinking by the CPC for next week's storm. Like you said, it's lookin' good:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/p_threats.gif
Let's hope for another "miss". This is wearing thin. Chiropractors, RGE are the only ones making out on this garbage.
ReplyDeleteThe pattern next week is perfect for an inland track from the storm! And if those models hold true until next week, that low is in an optimal position to put pretty close to the sweet spot. Definitely keeping my fingers crossed!
ReplyDeleteHey guys, im down in DC, and now in Charlottsville VA, You can see the evidence of the heavy snow they got a few days ago. Maybe its our turn next week!
ReplyDeleteLet's hope David! Have a safe trip back.
ReplyDeleteThe Oz GFS runs shortly it will be interesting to see what that shows. It has had favorable runs for us the last few. The Oz and 12Z are usually the more reliable from the GFS. The latest run for the NAM still looks good for us. Lets keep being positive.
ReplyDeleteBELIEVE! HOPEFULLY IT WILL COME! this weather maker probably will be followed by one or two more out of the Rockies. At least it has been the trend this season, just look at the east coast storms.
ReplyDeleteThe gfs and nam have this one real close! Western NY has 0.175-0.25 on scale and Rochester, eastward and southward has more!
ReplyDeleteThe Oz GFS shows a STRONG storm but looks like we are not in the sweet spot seems to be seeping again SE at hour 120. But looks pretty good at hour 96. I do not know for sure wonder what DK thinks?
ReplyDeleteWhere are all the bloggers with updates on the potential storm? I hope the old no news is good news applies with the storm coming?
ReplyDeleteNaw, we're still in a good position for the storm. Although the center of low pressure passes by well to our south, this is a case where the significant moisture will be well ahead of the low, putting WNY safely in the shield of significant snow. I wouldn't want to be any closer to the storm than what is being projected right now or else we risk getting caught in a brief changeover to sleet which will keep the totals down. But in any case, the GFS has been showing significant snow for WNY for the 7th straight run. Talk about consistency. This is significant in terms of forecast confidence.
ReplyDeletelooks like starting from the south west and then overspreading the region at least from the gfs.
ReplyDeleteTHE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING TO A CLOSER SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO THE
ReplyDeleteLOW THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTH FROM THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF TRACKS THE MAIN CENTER OF THE LOW A LITTLE FASTER THAN
GFS...BUT THE END RESULT IS THE SAME WITH A BROAD COVERAGE OF SNOW
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF BOTH EC AND GFS ARE RIGHT...THIS
WILL BE QUITE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HIKE THE POPS TO MID
LIKELY RANGE FOR WESTERN NY...TRENDING DOWN TO LOWER LIKELY TO UPPER
CHANCE FOR JEFF/LEWIS COUNTIES AND THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...
DK are you thinking what Scott was thinking in regards to totals 3-6 or 4-8? Because unless I am mistaken doesn't the GFS show more in the their precipitation amounts for western NY?
ReplyDeleteIf it is only 4-8 that is nothing. Minor snow event for Rochester. The GFS shows us in the sweet spot. I think 4-8 is low. Just my opinion.
ReplyDeleteAll NWS in New york are talking about a Major Winter storm for all of NY With QPF from .75-1.00 or more. This translates to more than 4-8 if it all works out. We will see. Winter Storm watches should go up on Monday sometime unless things change drastically which could happen.
ReplyDeleteI was watching the weather channel and it showed gfs,nam,model runs and one is more north and the other is a little bit south. But either way on thier map was in purple for western ny, so a foot seems more likely to me. Or at least 6-10, 6-12 plus, any ways. Probably will be the biggest event this season for most. Especially if it is a heavy wet snow with wind could make things interesting arround here!
ReplyDeleteThe following is an exerpt from the National Weather Service. Looks like our first MAJOR snowstorm is on the way:
ReplyDeleteTHE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING TO A CLOSER SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO THE
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTH FROM THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF TRACKS THE MAIN CENTER OF THE LOW A LITTLE FASTER THAN
GFS…BUT THE END RESULT IS THE SAME WITH A BROAD COVERAGE OF SNOW
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF BOTH EC AND GFS ARE RIGHT…THIS
WILL BE QUITE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HIKE THE POPS TO MID
LIKELY RANGE FOR WESTERN NY…TRENDING DOWN TO LOWER LIKELY TO UPPER
CHANCE FOR JEFF/LEWIS COUNTIES AND THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY…AND WE CAN EXPECT THESE POPS TO BE HIGHER IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.
I love how they say a significant event, but then say only several inches will fall. They consistently contradict themselves in their wording. Several inches could mean 3 or 4. A signifiant event is an 8-12 event.
ReplyDeleteThe latest GFS is spitting over a foot of liquid equivelent snow for us
ReplyDeleteIt will also be cold with temps in the low 20's. This will not be a heavy wet snow.
ReplyDeleteI think they're just not certain enough to put actual numbers out for the entire snow event, so they're playing it conservative and terming it "several inches". But if they are calling this "quite a significant event" then they most certainly have double digit snow totals in mind, i'm sure. The NWS in Buffalo isn't one to use phrases like that without meaning it.
ReplyDeleteI am down!! Sounds great to me. The more snow, the better for me at least. I understand there are folks who hate it and I can respect that, but for us snow lovers, our time is due and hopefully just a few short days away!! Keep the positive vibe going!!
ReplyDeleteScott
ReplyDeleteI know it's your day off, but do you see some serious potential out of this?
Courtesy of my Blackberry, I'm always reading! I do see the high potential for a 8-12" snowfall. Stay tuned I can't wait! Scott H
ReplyDeleteIf this track holds we could also get lake enhancement as well.
ReplyDeleteWhen Scott says we are going to get it, I get excited. He is the most accurate in Rochester. He always tells us the way it is.
ReplyDeleteI just read the talk out of Buffalo and they say only a half inch of water equivelent.
ReplyDeletewhat is the percent of the storm hitting us pretty hard and what is the percent of it missing us? as of right now?
ReplyDeleteCan't wait either Scott!
ReplyDeletethe snowmobile trails in genesee county could use a event like this because there is a few bare spots, some cornfields that are rough and this will put the icing on the cake. It's going to be great for the groomers to get out and groom them. I have over 150 miles this season all in western NY. Last year only 80 or so. So this has not been a bad winter by any means!
It is scary because some of the models give us no precip at all and take this storm too far South of us.
ReplyDeleteI am a little worried now. Several of the models are taking this storm just West or right on top of us which would mean a mix to maybe even rain.
ReplyDeleteNot sure what models you are looking at could name them the most recent NAM has us for a good hit.
ReplyDeleteHey Scott I know you said you have the blackberry out so a question it looks like with some of the data I looked at that there could be again brutally cold air coming in after the LP on Wednesday? Air that could bring us to lows like the past few Mondays for next Thursday? Just wondering what you thought and for the record if things do not change with path I think we could get between 10-14 inches (that maybe a low estimate) with front end snow before ( Tuesday) the LP and heavy during (Wednesday). Thanks
ReplyDeleteseveral models? Which ones?
ReplyDeleteBob hardly talked about the storm in his forecast tonight. What's up with that?
ReplyDeleteNWS seems to be in the 6 to 8, 8 to 10 inch range as an early forecast for Wed. storm. Living in Lyons and remembering the 3 feet of snow we had in early Dec. (all lake effect), this current forecast seems like a cake walk. I guess in the world of weather, everything is relative.
ReplyDeleteThey probably want to get a better understanding of the storm before they put it in the forcast. That would be my guess. I like Scotts post from earlier!!!
ReplyDeleteWhere is DK he is conspicuously quiet?
ReplyDeleteI am worried about this storm tracking to our west like the ones last year and we get guess what rain that would stink.
ReplyDeleteIt will do what it does. We just have to wait and see.
ReplyDeleteThis blog is really weak for a place that may have a possible storm. I know people do not believe it will come and they may be right but you havre to at least discuss it that is what the blog is for. Kind of amazing that you get nothing from Bob M. the whole day he contributes nothing to the forum but then again he does not like snow ha ha
ReplyDeleteSo Bob just said that the storm will be skimming us and hitting the east coast hard?? Hmmm. I want to hear Scott's forecast on Monday as I think it will do mode than just "skim" us. Although, he did say measurable snow with several inches... DK, Henry, Dave, would ya'll like to chime in??
ReplyDeleteAll the plowers and wish casters are out again hoping. I have come out of hibernation just to take a second to laugh and say no big storm again. Back to hibernation until at least Monday when all of you find out another storm misses and the complaining starts again.
ReplyDeleteVery frustrating and I know people get mad if you mention other weather stations but Bob has like no big deal and the east coast getting hammered while the other stations have substantial snow possible. Not sure what is going on Scott thought it could be bigger deal earlier but maybe things have changed.
ReplyDeleteLatest 0z GFS just coming in still looks good. It prints out over 1" of liquid equivalent for our region. If that were to be all snow, at least 10" of snow would fall. And considering we'd be somewhat better than a 10 to 1 ratio of liquid to snow equivalent, over 1 Foot is more likely. There is a chance of a little sleet or even freezing rain slipping in around the NY/PA border, but Rochester and the northern finger lakes continue to look safely within the ALL SNOW line. I wasn't able to catch Bob's forecast, but it looks like NYC will get more rain out of this. The biggest impact will be WNY for a change. Get your shovels ready. This event is now within 90 hours away, and still looks good for major snow.
ReplyDeleteWell then why did Bob just make a point to say nothing big on several inches not the big storm like all the bloggers hope for that is what he just said. NYC will get it again. I agree a majority of the models still have with all snow and at least 10 inches. At least Bob can you explain yourself?
ReplyDeleteNaw, read my post above. NYC won't get the full brunt this time. We will get hit the hardest right here in WNY. LIke I said, more rain than snow for NYC this time. I can't speak for Bob, but I think he's just trying to be reserved right now and play it conservative. It's still about 3 days away. Being that Bob is not yet a veteran meteorologist like Scott, he is probably just playing it low key until Scott returns on Monday.
ReplyDeleteKind of interesting how Scott posted something from his blackberry this afternoon but has not said anything lately. Remember his headline for this post. Just would be nice if Bob would make a post once every two weeks at least.
ReplyDelete0z GGEM and NOGAPS has the storm much further SE thus Bob could be right with what he is saying. It very well could be another miss!
ReplyDeleteI hear ya, Anonymous. And Scott did say 8-12 inches. Which, when you consider this would be a widespread, synoptic snowfall, that is quite significant. I'd go by Scott's early prediction for right now until we hear from somebody. 8-12 certainly looks more likely than just a "few inches".
ReplyDeleteThe last run of the NOGAPS I saw was the 12z earlier today. That run showed us getting a good hit by a snowstorm. Do you have the link to the latest 0z of the NOGAPS? I'd like to check it out.
ReplyDeleteOK, nevermind, I see what you're talking about with the NOGAPS. For what it's worth, the much more powerful and reliable GFS model shows us getting slammed by hour 90. I would go by that, at the moment. There's a reason the NWS doesn't usually reference the Navy NOGAPS. It's not reliable. And the Canadian GEM has done a terrible job forecasting storms so far this winter. So, my money is on the GFS
ReplyDeleteSadly, I had to get up early this morning but the first thing i checked was this blog!!! The second site was the NWS, and man their discussion is very exiciting!! I'll let everyone read it for themselves, but this event is starting to feel real!
ReplyDeleteGood morning all: still on track for all snow with potential for significant amounts from main low. Two areas of concern which would hold down totals. Low will be fast moving and track of low will affect amounts. I'm out of town but watching. Be back on air 10 and 11 monday!
ReplyDeleteGood morning Scott! Does it look like we will get 3-5 inches from the front end of a LP on Tuesday then the bigger LP will be Wednesday that could give us maybe 8-10 inches? Also what do you think about brutal cold air coming in after the low? Thanks
ReplyDeleteGFS has had us in a great spot for several days now and still does. Models will wobble around a little bit now but like DK said, were less than 90hours away, with the big models coming into very good agreement on this a few days ago. Looks like were going to get a nice storm here, woo hoo.
ReplyDeleteI think I saw the NOGAPS in the museum last week? Who even looks at that model anymore.
The following is an exerpt from the National Weather Service issued today:
ReplyDeletePRECIPITATION TYPE AT THIS POINT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE IN QUESTION AND SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. CURRENT TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW WOULD BRING THE AXIS OF THE MODERATE/HEAVY
PRECIPITATION SHIELD RIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
ALONG THE STREGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE BULLSEYE MAY EVEN BE
IN THE BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS STILL
3 DAYS OUT…CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS
RATHER HIGH DUE TO STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS. STILL A BIT FAR OUT FOR
A WATCH…THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN A HEAVILY WORDED HWO
What is with Bob last night saying that this would not be a BIG event for us and it would be more so in NYC. He could not be any more wrong with the latest models. I really think he purposely does that toupset us snow lovers. Just my opinion.
ReplyDeleteThe NWS out of Binghampton said they will put watches up this afternoon. Watch, Buffalo will wait until Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteI don't know. It seems more like he doesn't look through any of the computer models or read any of the analysis before he goes on air. That's what i'm thinking.
ReplyDeleteI didn't watch Bobs forecast last night, but did he really say it would be skimming us!? If thats the case, he should do his homework a little more or have DK fill in for him! Bottom line, if the models hold true til tuesday/wednesday, Bob should put a post up on the blog and eat his piece of humble pie.
ReplyDeleteBut lets not make this about Bob, I'm just glad for once, we don't have to hope for shifts and changes in the models. We just get to sit back, relax(somewhat anyway), and know the odds are in our favor now!
ReplyDeleteBob is awesome. Don't criticize him just because he doesn't say what you want him to say. He is mentored by Scott, who tells it like it is. That's why it's the most accurate forecast in town. If you want doomsday predictions of monster snowfall hype, watch another channel.
ReplyDeleteDave, are you back in the ROC? I am ready to see how this plays out! Henry, it looks like it may be worth the wait! And, Yes, I was watching the forcast last night when Bob said it was going to skim us. Before the last poster jumps all over me, I like Bob but I agree with others that he is going to lay back on it for now. He knows what he is doing or he would not be there. We have to remember that he may also be under instruction as to what he can see while the cat is away.
ReplyDeleteBullseye from Buffalo to Rochester! Substantial snow is coming!
ReplyDelete12-24 inches here? certainly possible. Wednesday will probably be rough, tuesday morning could get a little dicey too. With the wind it could make things very harsh. We'll see!
ReplyDeleteI think we are going to get hit with at least a foot of snow based on what I am seeing. It seems the consensus on the models is good and been consistent for a few days. This is going to be a big storm that impacts millions. There will be major ice concerns for areas hope we stay all snow. I also think we will have bitter cold temps. on Thursday morning after the storm. Not sure what Bob and Scott think. Thanks
ReplyDelete