MEASILY SNOWFALL ARRIVES SATURDAY
Written By: Scott Hetsko
After missing out on another East Coast storm, an Alberta Clipper will dive into the area on Saturday. It looks to be a fiesty little fella so I expect a couple fresh inches of snow (2-5") along with a gusty breeze.
Rochester has recorded about 75" of snow so far this season which is 26" higher than the normal pacing of Winter around here.
Scott, I notice you use the term "measily." Are you getting a little frustrated by all the misses by major snowstorms as well?
ReplyDeletei think Rochester is in a "weather protected bubble" because all of the good snow fall south east or west or us we get nothing!!!
ReplyDeleteScott any idea of when we will warm up for more than a day? Some of us hate winter and want to get rid of this snow
ReplyDeleteA true warm up with several days above average is at least two weeks away.
ReplyDeleteScott
Scott not sure why you seem to be throwing salt on the wound in your weather forecast on the 4 show. You mentioned this is the 4th storm that has missed us east and that since it is late January and getting into February that storms are less likely to form along the coast. Then 15 mins. later you have a promo about an east coast storm and where is it going to go tune in later? It just seems like again it is about getting the ratings that is too bad.
ReplyDeleteIt's called a tease and of course we want people to continue to watch. If someone is just getting home, they'll want to know about the next storm.
ReplyDeleteScott
Every single news channel in America opens with a tease of some sort to get viewers to stay tuned. Sometimes the reporters themselves do it, but it has become increasingly more common to have the meteorologist, and sometimes even the sportscasters do a tease. It's the nature of the business. Remember, Scott isn't just a Penn State degreed and certified meteorlogist, he's also in television. The awesome thing about this blog is that we can get the "nitty-gritty" ; the "raw data", if you will, on what Scott and his team are seeing for our area. There are just things that can't be covered in the 4 or so minute slot that meteorologists have to cover the weather for the next 7 days.
ReplyDeleteKeep up the great work gentlemen!
Scott,
ReplyDeleteAny chance of this low trending a little too far south? Latest runs suggest the main energy and lift to slide across PA.
Not just TV. I did it in Radio both in TN & NY. Scott is right in what he does. It keeps the viewers/listeners attention.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, the fact that Rochester has managed to pick up 75" of snow by the end of January despite missing every single major east coast snowstorm, just goes to show how very snowy of a city Rochester is, and how Rochester really can cash in on lake effect. Buffalo and Syracuse may get the real reputation as the lake effect meca of NYS, but Rochester deserves to be on that list, too. 46" of snow in the month of December - almost every inch of it being lake Ontario snow. Not bad!
ReplyDeleteHey Scott you made a post on the last subject that many people use the models for their guidance and predictions. However, you use the recent climate of the winter for your predictions that models are just a guidance.Does this mean that we can forget about any synoptic snow storms the rest of the winter because they will all stay SE? Thus we should not even look at any long range models for possible storms? Thus this blog is really kind of useless when we talk about storm possibilities and model data?
ReplyDeleteLong range models have been utterly useless this winter when it comes to pin pointing storms and storm tracks. The GFS around hour 360 has shown a massive snowstorm blitzing Rochester on multiple occasions this winter. As you can clearly see, not a single one of them actually panned out. At a certain point, you start looking at long range models and realize its playing the same old song and dance that never ends up coming to fruition. That's when you go by climatology and trends of the winter. It can't be denied that every single major snow storm has missed us in almost exactly the same place (well south and east).
ReplyDeleteRemember too that last year, at the very end of February, one snowstorm finally slipped in. It ended up being our first and final synoptic storm of the entire winter. So things can happen between now and the end of winter. I don't think anybody is implying that there's no chance of one or two storms slipping in before the winter is over. But you gotta go by the trends. Anything else is just a guessing game that is not based on any science.
ReplyDeleteThanks DK so I guess that is the point I am making the tends and climate indicate this winter is pretty much done for any big snowstorms. No reason to even get excited about looking at models until 24-48 hours before a storm. Thus this blog is pretty much a waste of time because that is what everyone talks about and is always wishing for a big storm.
ReplyDeleteIt may be a waste of time for you, Anonymous. But it's not for me. I love this blog.
ReplyDeleteWell I like it too but it will be quiet for a bit because there is nothing to even wishcast for on the long range range models for at least 10 days. Looks like things are going to calm down storm wise in February.
ReplyDeleteI will say that wish-casting and cherry-picking of specific runs of computer models can tend to get out of control...especially when their stuff way out in the long range. But you'll find that to be the case on every weather blog out there. I try not to do it, but I am guilty of it myself occasionally. The problem with getting too invested in long range outlooks is that when the "event" you're looking out for doesn't pan out. It gets frustrating and by the end of the winter, after a bunch of let downs, it really takes its toll. That's why I try to numb myself to the excitement of anything beyond about a week. After a couple winters of allowing yourself to get far too excited over a computer model, and then being let down a bunch of times, it becomes easy to turn cynical about long range stuff. I speak from experience.
ReplyDelete2-5. Wow. Get out the snowblowers. I am sorry, but 75 inches of lake fluff is like 25" inches of real snow. I am not impressed by 75 inches of lake effect. Not at all. Our winters are always nickle and dime lake effect and never a real snowstorm like the east coast seems to get year after year. They get true blizzards and snowstorms. Now that is impressive.
ReplyDeleteWhat is pathetic is that this little clipper started out to be pretty intense on the models but going to our North and West. Now it is showing weaker and moving to our South with every run and taking the mositure into PA instead of us. By the time Saturday comes it will be well to our South and east like every other stomr and we get nothing.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't give up on a good snowstorm for us before Winter ends. Patterns shift as seasons do often so I would expect a mid Feb to mid March storm for us, you'll see!
ReplyDeleteScott
No doubt, places like NYC and especially Boston, get more major synoptic snowstorms and blizzards than Rochester. I still would take Rochester over those cities because: 1) those cities USUALLY have extended gaps of mild, melting weather between storms. 2) those cities also get a lot of rain storms during the winter 3) It almost always turns to 40 or so within a couple days of each big snowstorm, so the snow cover turns to ugly brown lawn very quickly 4) overall days of just having a gentle snow falling from the sky to get into the winter spirit is far less in the big cities because it's synoptic snowstorm or nothing for those cities. and 5) it's a gamble with the big cities as to whether there will be big storms in a winter or not. In rochester you can count on lake effect even if the synoptic storms miss us. But some winters the big cities of NYC and Boston get mostly rain storms or rain/snow slop storms that only add up to 15" or so for the entire winter. You can't count on big blizzards like this year. It's an anomaly, quite frankly.
ReplyDeleteThe last 2 years they have receivd blizzard after blizzard while we get nickle and dimed to death. Let's face it, we all want the BIG one that they have ben getting. I would take their blizzards over our nickle and dime crap anyday.
ReplyDeleteI am ready for spring and baseball.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of the potential to get a good synoptic storm to slip in by the end of the winter, I noticed that the latest la nina advisory indicates a bit of weakening of la nina. That may help us out storm track wise if la nina shifts to more of a weak/moderate ENSO rather than a moderate/strong ENSO as it is now. Moderate to Strong el nino's OR la ninas tend to hurt us when it comes to storm track.
ReplyDeleteAnd just you wait for the winter of 2011-12. A solid weak to neutral ENSO may prove to make up for years of lost synoptic snow storms. Nature likes to even things out, one way or another.
Scott, do your see favorable conditions for some lake effect to set up once the clipper passes?
ReplyDeleteAnyway, just trying to stay positive. I am every bit as frustrated as you guys. I'm like that guy who gets in a bad mood through Monday because his football team lost on Sunday. Only my bad mood is because we missed a storm. I feel the pain. Growing up in Batavia, I used to get hit by lake Erie snowstorms that hit Buffalo and ran straight into Batavia. Then I'd get hit by Georgian Bay connection snow the next day...and then a big synoptic snowstorm the day after that. Now I live in Rochester, and I miss those days, but I gotta believe we'll get hit eventually. In the meantime, I try to think about the huge blizzard that Rochester back in March of 1999. 42" in 4 days...with strong winds and true whiteout conditions. It put the city of Rochester in a state of Emergency. Now don't get me wrong...I don't want anybody to face hardship, but I like the excitement of a big storm like most of us on here do. Remember though...it has happened before, and we're due!
ReplyDeleteDefinitely right on there DK! This has been a very active winter and there's no doubt in my mind we will see at least one major storm and well over 100" for the winter, and who knows, maybe a superstorm is just down the road...
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said...
ReplyDeleteScott any idea of when we will warm up for more than a day? Some of us hate winter and want to get rid of this snow
Wow, a voice in the wilderness---I'm with this guy. Melt this garbage.
Any time you want to come over and shovel the "measly" 5 inches let me know. I'll have the shovel waiting for you in the driveway.
ReplyDeleteI too am fascinated by weather, but I must confess I cannot see the attraction to big storms. Not criticizing here, just want to understand: if you have any intention of leaving your house, why would you want to encounter conditions that put you in serious danger every time you get into your car? I'm thankful that we miss the big storms. Storms are interesting on computer screens, but in real life they hurt people. Loved ones are injured and killed on bad roads. Shop owners lose business. I will follow this blog with interest like you, but I'm fine if we never see another big storm.
ReplyDeleteSun glare is very dangerous on the highways in the morning and evening hours. Accidents spike during those times. Do you wish to avoid the sunshine too?
ReplyDeleteSerious injury accidents are much higher in the spring time when the weather is nice and people start driving like idiots and forget all about defensive driving skills. Yes people put themselves into ditches and get into fender benders in the snow, but overall, the injuries sustained are not nearly as horrific as during nice weather when people take curves at 70 MPH.
And what about people who chase tornados? Although they do it for research, you can tell they love the excitement of it too. Are they all wierdos too in your mind?
Sorry, anonymous, but your logic is incorrect. It's natural to be excited by the thrill of weather at its most intense. To see nature, something that is so much bigger than us, at work right before our very eyes is awe inspiring!
And by the way....you simply can't be THAT fascinated by weather if you don't understand the interest in big storms. It's like saying you're fascinated by music, but aren't really interested in watching the musician perform.
ReplyDeleteYou're not a true weather enthusiast, my friend. No way.
Definitely agree with SnowFan on this one. San Diego is the place for you, anonymous. You can continue to claim that you're "fascinated" by the weather and never have to experience any of it. Not really my idea of truly living, though. I've experienced some incredible weather events that I believe have only proven to build character and appreciation for nature and the bigger picture. But, to each is own, I guess.
ReplyDeleteWe're currently missing a decent snowstorm on the east coast. Also, the last two runs of the Euro have rain across Rochester as a strong storm cuts to our west on Tuesday of next week. And the Saturday system also looks less impressive, with a risk of the best lift missing us just to the west and south across Northern Ohio and Pennsylvania. Rochester's talent for dodging storm after storm.....after storm....just might continue.
ReplyDeleteNothing will change keep wishing all of you! Back to hibernation.
ReplyDeleteI don't have to shovel sun glare, nor slide into a ditch on it. I'll gladly put on sun glasses any time. Not much need around this gloomy burgh.
ReplyDelete6 storms have hit the NEe. How many have hit Rochester? ZIPPO. Winter in Rochester sucks. Bring on the EUro and rain.
ReplyDeleteDK, i really doubt that storm is going to miss us to the west mid next week. The other models don't even have a storm developing and recently, the euro hasn't been overly reliable. I wouldn't look at the models for that area of low pressure til sunday... And the weekend clipper is looking a little bit less impressive, but i still think scott's forecast is right on
ReplyDeleteI'm starting to wonder whether the favorite hobby around here is weather or whining.
ReplyDeleteI agree with J. stop complaining all of you whiny people. does it make you feel better to come on this blog and vent? go talk to someone else who hates winter just like you. I would love a big storm, and am sorry we have missed so many, but i'm not going to come on here and be a little baby about it. Lets talk weather and predict what we think will happen, keep the whining out of here please, it is annoying. move south if you want it warmer, and move east if you want these storms. or you could just be patient and be happy where you are. i love having four distinct seasons. It keeps it interesting all year.
ReplyDeleteThe Euro forecast model, which had been trending toward a warmer, rainier solution for around Tuesday of next week, has gotten rid of that solution, and looks more like the much colder GFS model for early next week.
ReplyDeleteAlso, i'm with Scott about the potential for a true synoptic snowstorm sometime between February and March. Our biggest snowstorms often come in March. All it takes is one to really blitz Rochester.
Hi Weather team,
ReplyDeleteWill you be posting an update about the snow on Saturday?
Our weather must be really boring we have not had a new post from the news 8 team in days!
ReplyDeleteThe GFS and Euro both have a storm next week lined up for SURPRISE, NY, DC, NJ and Philly. Can you say miss east again.
ReplyDeleteThe news 8 team is probably discouraged by the fact that their blog has turned into a bitch fest. I think we need to shift away from writing down our emotions and feelings on here, and focus more on talking OBJECTIVELY about weather and forecasts. It will make for a much more pleasant read, in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteDK commented a bit ago about the La nina being a force in allowing these big storms to miss us due to the moderate/strong ENSO. I think this is pretty significant. I was watching a videoclip from another local weather station on Time Warner cable (in early december) the the Meterologist there was presenting a long-term forecast of what Rochester winter would shape up as.................and just as DK indicated about La nina and the ENSO being moderate or strong............this setup would bring us some lake snow, but would probably prevent us from getting "whallopped" with big storms and we would have an average snow fall for the winter season. Seems to be shaping up this way, BUT we still have a ways to go. This is what is fun (or frustrating for some) about forecasting the weather........the best laid plans can be wrong at times.........and sometimes something can arise that you weren't expecting!! Keep up the blogging!!
ReplyDeleteScott Hetsko also noted the very same thing in his winter outlook program in late November. He said that winter storms would be hard to come by around here this winter.
ReplyDelete