WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM
Written by: Brian Neudorff
UPDATE 10AM:
Here is a link for the snow amounts across western New York including Rochester - Local Snow Reports
Most reports are consistent with what I have heard from all of you. The center of the storm is passing west of Buffalo over Lake Erie. Scattered showers of sleet, snow and maybe freezing rain this morning. Temperatures will get into the upper 20s before falling back into the low 20s in the afternoon.
Some snow will be likely later this afternoon into the evening. Right now I think a coating to maybe two inches. It could still make for a slick evening commute for some.
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Now that most of the snow has ended and the sleet and some freezing rain has taken over I could use your help. How much snow did you get and what is it doing where you are. All of you who participate or maybe new to our blog we love to get your observations. It really is a benefit to us here in the weather office.
Just leave a comment tell us where you are, what time you took your measurement and what you are seeing. It's that simple. If you want me to mention you please give me at least a first name. Thanks... More to come through the morning, and happy Groundhog Day.
Biggest BUST in years and all the schools are closed and many did last night. Pretty funny how the media can create hype and hysteria and people react. Hey but it is ok we move on and wait for the next miss but you guys do a great job at news 8 and Scott should be proud of his call as early as 9:30 last night just can not understand how other veteran local guys can miss it so badly. No bag over head for Scott sleep easy. I missed it and the staying positive thing is not working so just move on. Also nice job Andrew.
ReplyDeleteWhat defines hype? That is always the question I have. I definitely call it a bust with 10-15 and we get 2 to 4 inches. Did we hype it tell people to run to the store and say this will be historic? No.
ReplyDeleteOn Monday, yes I mentioned that some models were printing out 20+ inches but I never said it on air or even said I was forecasting that. I was using this forum to let you know what I was seeing and thinking. I love snow I was and still do enjoy the conversations and participation here.
I take my job and work very personally. I HATE busting and forecast, but it will happen from time to time. I know when I have been beaten and mother nature did a good job at that. MMMMMMM humble pie... Thank you all and bring on the next one. -Brian
Of all the news teams, yours have been pretty much right and close to accuate as possible over the years. I used to listen to Kevin Williams all the time until about 6 or 7 years ago when you guys got it right and everyone else was way off. Thanks for being the team I can trust!
ReplyDeleteOnce again, Andrew cannot take credit for this one! And I had about 4 maybe 5 inches in my driveway, but idk it was tough to measure because of the blowing and drifting. In my backyard, i have an ice rink, and there was about 4-4.5 on that around 5 or so, with some nasty sleet coming down. I live on the western edge of chili.
ReplyDeleteLyons....4 or 5 inches. No big deal.
ReplyDeleteForecast bust of epic proportions on a local and national level. Enjoy your humble pie and move on. Although I expect the sinicism to be on the increase in this blog because of this event. Hopefully those that are just dying to say "i told you so" say it and move on and don't jump on all the next blogs and say "gonna be a bust just like the last one". That will take the fun out of the blog.
ReplyDeleteI think the hype and hysteria comes from the public not the media. Wegmans was packed yesterday because of the potential of 10 to 15 inches of snow? Ridiculous!! People hear Storm and they go nuts. As far as the forcast being a bust, I find it interesting that Mother Nature can still outsmart our powerful computers.
ReplyDelete4 inches in penfield. Yesterday's commute into work (normally takes 10 minutes) took 1hr. I can't believe all these schools closed, the roads seem WAY better than they were yesterday. Regardless, everyone drive safe this morning.
ReplyDelete***BREAKING WEATHER NEWS*** Punxsutawney Phil does NOT see his shadow. An early spring. At this rate I am ready to trust his forecast.
ReplyDeleteYou guys are fun. I am now laughing, all you can do. -Brian
Here in Wayland there is 1/2"...not even enough to shovel. As a snow enthusiast, I'm a bit disappointed after seeing the forcast for days say 5-10" for us. It's not the first time and I don't blame the meteorologists, technology can only go so far I guess, we will just have to wait for the next one. Everyone was so sure school would be closed for us, and my kids were a bit disappointed to find out it was still in session today. I'm still holding out hope that we will get our turn for snow..we have missed out on any big snows here in the southerntier, all that lake snow has only given us a couple inches here and there. Wondering if we will even get a turn this year for any bigger snow than 2-3" at a time, but it's only the beginning of Feb. so still hoping.
ReplyDeleteGinger
Watched all the channels last night and only channel 8 was even close to accurate! Good work. It is probably better not to have all the buses on the roads until they clear the ice. If only it were good sledding weather...
ReplyDeleteDefinitely a bust of a storm only a inch or two down in pavilion. Not much at all. All the hype closed schools and colleges for what? inch or so hahahahaha! Pathetic!!!!!! It's beautiful out this morning.
ReplyDeleteGot about 2" in the hills of Sparta (north of Dansville). I'm fine with that. The more snow we get the longer it takes for my yard to dry out in the spring. Bring on baseball season.
ReplyDeletemost reports are from 1 to 4 inches. Then the sleet and some freezing rain. Dry Slot got us and mid level warm air advection. -Brian
ReplyDeleteI am laughing my head off. The rochester media is acting like this was the storm of the century. Businesses and schools closed yesterday. Channel 10 is on "STORM ELERT". Guys, 1-4 inches is a big deal in Atlanta, Ga, but it is nothing for Rochester. Give me a freaking break. It is almost embarassing to see how this city is reacting to a few inches of snow. A few weeks ago we woke up to 15 inches of lake effect and nothing shut down. Channel 10 meteorologists are acting like their forecats was right on. What a joke. I give channel 8 a lot fo credit for saying you were wrong on this one.
ReplyDeleteKudos to the news 8 weather team for having the guts to pull the plug on this storm well ahead of the competition. I really enjoy reading your insight and getting educated on weather.
ReplyDeleteAs for those saying schools made a bad call, I'm not sure I agree. Many schools made the call at 4am or 5am this morning after getting reports from the ground crews and road reports. Seems to me those that waited made the call based on actual conditions. The commute is lousy today and I will be working from my home office.
Ho hum, we will have to wait for the next storm (hopefully this year). In my 40 plus years on this planet, all of it in ROC area, we've had a lot of busts. This one was certainly not the biggest bust. I think the biggest bust of all time was the blizzard of '78. I remember schools closing midday, before a flake flew, because a monster blizzard was quickly approaching from the west. Buf got hammered and the storm turned at the last minute and ROC got nothing.
Again, thanks to the news 8 weather team for hosting this blog, and nice job for making the call well ahead of the competition and NWS.
AL
This may have been a disappointment, but at least we at least got in on a little of the action this time around. And people, its only the 2nd day in february, a historically active month. And judging by the models for the next week or so, it looks to be fairly active. Brush this one off, the next one isn't too far down the pipeline. And the News 8 weather team is clearly the best out there, good job guys!
ReplyDeleteCan someone put the stupid "powerful" computers away. All they are is another option that has no more of a chance of being right than I do. Somehow, someway I'm pretty sure forecasts got done before there were computer models. Go with your gut, instinct, what was learned in school. I'd rather be off because I interpreted something wrong, than be off because I was relying on a computer and the computer was wrong, then have to eat crow for the computer:-). What good is all the money spent on fancy computers and websites with fancy (distracting/annoying) graphics, when there is no more of a chance of getting it right than if you guess? Your gut said less Brian, and it's nice that we actually knew that because of this blog. I fear we're going to a place where kids can't do math without a calculator and meteorologists won't report what their gut says, but what the "models" say. If I want a model, I'll go build a little plastic car. Technology...pffft. Props to you guys for being closest and props to you for taking your medicine like a man. BTW...Fairport, nothing to brag about, just had to brush a little off the windshield. No scraping. Roads were awesome too! At least at 6:30. Cowards for closing the schools.
ReplyDeleteI have to give a lot of credit to Scott. I know he pulled me back on my thinking (which he usually does) Being here only 3 years I have seen only a fraction of what can happen here in Western NY. So when he says something I listen.
ReplyDeleteA bust is not easy to take. We were ALL wrong. Don't let anyone kid you but if your wrong admit it. Which we are doing thanks to all of you for coming here and participating. This blog is nothing but talking to yourself if no one comments.
It does sound like a active period ahead and some more snow possible for Saturday and Monday-Tuesday?
ReplyDeleteAh, the "wall of snow" that was coming at us in '78. The ultimate bust. LOL. But don't you think that sometimes the anticipation is better than the actual storm? Even if the storm actually happens?
ReplyDeleteGood changes to the forecast last night, those were accurate. At least we were aware and alert about the hazards of what could happen and the storm's potential. Maybe the next one won't be a bust u never know.
ReplyDeleteI wonder what the biggest busts of all time were? I mentioned blizzard of '78 being the biggest, but I know there were many more, I just don't recall the specific events.
ReplyDeleteAL
Thanks to Scott and Brian for keeping us all up to date on this blog. It is so nice to be able to pop on the blog and get the latest thoughts instead of waiting for a news cast or an update on a website or the NWS. While the storm may have been a "bust", I am thinking most of us would rather have been prepared than not. If forecasters said, ahhhhh, not going to be a big storm and then we get hammered, not only would we be upset, but the safety of everyone could be comprised. It is better to be prepared than nothing at all. Regardless, Scott and crew did see the change and gave us up to date info. last night!!
ReplyDeleteScott and Brian - how many inches (if any) do you think we will get from the wraparound snow that is currently around Chicago?
I knew it! I said the dry slot would get us on this blog three days ago.
ReplyDeleteScott, you were right on the money. You deserve the title of the "Most Accurate Forecast in Rochester!"
I watched you on Fox at 10 last night, and I knew you were going to be right.
Channel 8 has the best weather forecasting of all!
Great job Channel 8!!!
ReplyDelete'78 had to be the biggest bust. The City of Rochester literally closed down and everyone was sent home mid-day. The grocery stores had lines from the front to the back of the store. That was before we had computers and could just check the radar so we just stood at the windows waiting for the storm to start. Then nothing. Literally. I can't remember the NWS met that was the face of that bust but he was famous for it around here for quite a while
ReplyDeleteI did not measure but it looks like about 3" here in Gates--probably ice on top, very pleasant.
ReplyDeleteI will say you guys were closest in the forecast and were willing to change at the last minute--all others were still calling for 15" even after midnight. Nonetheless for all the high tech stuff it really isn't great.
Also when you guys start mentioning ICE a little more specificity would be nice--this has very, very bad connotations for a lot of us who survived 91. Do you think trees will be a problem, power lines--you know little stuff like that.
Strange storm it looks like areas very close to us got killed while here just the usual misery.
Anyway you guys did the best job of any of them, my kudos for having the stones to make that last minute change. I realize it was a tough situation.
Did Charles get kicked off this blog?? Haven't heard from him in a very long time. I wonder if he's ok.
ReplyDeletewe got 4 inches of wet snow very hard sleet in the am in Ontario now just cloudy and cold I still love all of you your are a great team of weather men
ReplyDeleteGood job. Good information. No hype. Schools listened to the wrong channel!
ReplyDeleteThanks guys!
Snow coming down pretty good in Greece right now (Latta/Mt.Read). Not sure how long it will last though.
ReplyDeleteHi Brian!
ReplyDeleteCongrats to Scott's better forecast yesterday!
He sure came out smelling like a Rose--
Kevin Williams must be hiding his head in a bag this AM! :-)
As for snow depth here: Only 3 inches
There is a crust on the top-- likely from the very moist precip later during the night-- frozen when it was below freezing--
The temp is up to 34 degrees F outside, now-- at 9:44 AM-- Wednesday- 2-2-2011
We are at the very bottom of Livingston County-
Within a few hundred yards of the point where the 3 counties of Ontario, Steuben and Livingston meet on your map-- Pretty easy to see exactly where we live!
You can use my name and location if that helps-- Mack Baxter-- Pardee Hollow Road-- Town of Springwater-- Post Office is Wayland, and Phone is Atlanta, NY
Sincerely, Mack Baxter
Here is the list of snow reports from NWS in Buffalo. http://ow.ly/3ORwG
ReplyDeletePassing areas of snow showers, sleet & freezing rain will move through this morning. The center of the storm will pass just west of Buffalo. Winds will pick up gust near 30 and then get colder again with some snow showers with a WNW wind. Coating to maybe 2 inches...
sorry but what a joke of a storm touted...hardly got anything. 2 inches. Hype and spin, although scotts report last night reflected a better accurate assessment. I will not believe the national accu-hype anymore. Bring on spring summer Tstorms!
ReplyDeletewow this was a sad storm and everything shut down!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteI have been reading and posting as anon for a while but I moved to Tennessee so I don't pay as much attention
ReplyDeleteCharles did you find a job or going to school in TN?
ReplyDeleteI moved to tennessee for a job. I am still doing meteorology online and am really hoping that eventually I can get a job in meteorology. I built my own green screen and stream weather online so I am getting lots or practice with that
ReplyDeleteI will vouch for News 8 .... this storm was extremely hard to forecast nationwide.... I was doing it for most of the country (national type forecasting not specific) and that was hard enough I cant imagine trying to get specific with the storm. I also still forecast for the Rochester area and I too had snow for the entire storm only to wake up this morning and see that my forecast failed miserably. So good job News 8 for getting it closer then any other news agency out there
ReplyDeleteYou do gotta give it up to Andrew...if he had just posted some data or elaborated on theories to back up his claim, instead of just declaring what was definitely going to happen - maybe be would have paid more heed
ReplyDeleteGot 2 inches Tuesday and 5 inches last night in Fairport.
ReplyDelete"30 Days In The Hole"! Does anyone know who sings that? Look it up, you will have a good laugh! About 3 inches of sleet in Sparta is about it. That may be a bit high. I didnt measure before I headed out this morning. Charles, where in TN are you? We are moving back to Nashville soon. I LOVE Tennessee and can not wait to get back!! Feel free to email me at bigklien@yahoo.com We can probably answer alot of your questions about that state! Enjoy it!! Now that this sleet is gone, Lets keep our eyes skyward for whatever else may be coming at us or dodging us :)
ReplyDeleteCharles, Glad to hear from you and that all's ok. Good luck in Tennessee!!
ReplyDeletelooks like nice wall of light snow coming our way.
ReplyDeleteI am embarrassed about our current media. One channel just had footage of "ROCHESTER DIGS OUT". Enough enough enough. Really turning into a joke. I get a couple inches of lake effect almost everyday and there is nothing on the news nor should there be. I've heard less whining out of the east coast cities with 2' than the media here with 2". Move on, you are embarrasing yourselves and us all. If i was from out of town and travelling here and saw the news I'd be laughing my arse off!
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone realize there is no city with a larger population that gets as much snow as Rochester? Stop acting like we've never seen snow before, and stop covering the 2-4" that fell last night!
I know it is a joke. Rochester digs out. Are you kidding me. What a laugh and embarassment. They must not have anything else to talk about.
ReplyDeleteSince everyone is depressed about the snow-dud, I thought you would like to read details of storms that didn't bust: here is a fascinating post about the Blizzard of '78 and the White Hurricane of 1913 from a station in Michigan. Thought I would share. http://www.wilx.com/blogs/weatherblog/13964952.html
ReplyDeleteLooks like some heavier snow coming this way from West to East.
ReplyDeleteBrian do you think the light snow on the way will also set off lake effect snow?
ReplyDeleteScott great call last night. Stlouis missed the big snow as did several other places! Gust goes to show tha mother nature is still smarter than all the computers models combined..Keep up the great work. George
ReplyDeleteTrying to get beyond the disappointment of the 1-2" we got in the southertier, when is the next opportunity for any sizeable snow? We LOVE snow here....Rochester has been getting their fair share of lake effect but we have been cut short here in the southerntier.
ReplyDeleteGinger
Ginger, looks like we could get a little bit this weekend, and then the middle of next week looks a little more interesting.
ReplyDeleteGinger, Lets wait and see how it pans out for the next week. At least we have a good snow pack down right now to enjoy. Like you, I want the big one too but after this "Bust" we just had, don't get too excited until we can look out our windows and see it stack up :) But as the previous poster said, next week COULD be interesting....
ReplyDeletewell the possibility is something to look forward to again..at least the possiblility is there...hanging on tight to see what will happen!
ReplyDeleteGinger