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Tuesday, November 22

Rains Knocking on the Door



Written by John DiPasquale:


Mainly dry, chilly & brisk this afternoon. However, one to two inches of rain will fall tonight through tomorrow morning. Northern New York into the Northern half of New England will experience snow & ice later tonight into Wednesday. So if you have travel plans up North plan accordingly. The weather should improve during the afternoon & evening up that way too, though. We will slowly dry out later tomorrow afternoon & especially tomorrow night into Turkey Day.


Sunshine & milder temperatures will be with us for gobble-gobble day thanks to a strong area of high pressure. Temperatures will climb into the low & perhaps mid 50s Thursday, & into the 60s for Black Friday & much of the remainder of the holiday weekend!! There will be a lot of sun Friday, but it appears some clouds will try to push in with a backdoor cold front Friday night into the Saturday morning before they retreat back to the North, as the front retreats in the form of a warm front. Some more sun will greet us on Sunday, before a few showers attempt to work in with slightly cooler air for Monday. Much colder air should arrive later next week with maybe some snow with it as we head toward the start of December, but it's still over a week away, so we'll see. Stay tuned.


Have a great day & be careful if you will be doing any driving tonight, because that rain will be very heavy at times, reducing visibility & possibly causing some minor flooding in spots into the start of tomorrow.


11 comments:

  1. With the ground temperature still very cold, I wouldn't be surprised to see a icy or mix when the rain starts to move in. Why isn't this mentioned?

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  2. Too warm upstairs anon, otherwise I would agree with you.

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  3. They are forecasting close to 2 inches of rain tonight, do you believe this is over done?

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  4. I wouldn't be shocked to see an initial, BRIEF snow/sleet in a few spots. Wet bulb temperature at Rochester is 34 degrees so it may occur. Wet bulb is about where the temperature may initially drop when precip starts to fall. Either way, rain is the dominant weather tonight. A cold rain at that!

    Scott Hetsko

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  5. Looks like pockets of freezing rain will fall in the valleys South of 5 and 20 for a little while this evening. A few slick spots are possible.

    Scott

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  6. Scott, I know you hate to talk about models even days before an event, but I was curious as to whether you've ever seen a storm stall out in the Mississippi valley like its projected to early next week? Its just something you don't see everyday! Also, could this storm be our ticket to change the pattern a bit around here?

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  7. That type of stuck upper air low happens a few times each year. It's placement is unusual but the fact that it's occurring is a sign that a blocking pattern could be evolving as we reach December.

    Scott

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  8. When you say blocking pattern what does that mean for us?

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  9. Scott - I also have a question similiar to WeatherDan, does the "Blocking Pattern" that you speak of have anything to do with the NAO. As you said in your Winter Special, the NAO may be more positive this year (less blocking in the North Atlantic). Also, was wondering why 2 week patterns with NAO, is that how they typically flucuate (in 2 week patterns)?

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  10. John...it's thundering in Kendall!! Make it go away!

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  11. I was going to ask a Q about the blocking pattern too...what is it exactly? Is the giant dome of high pressure over Greenland? How does it get established and why does it stay put for so long when others keep moving?

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