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Tuesday, November 29

WARM NOVEMBER COULD BE BAD FOR SNOWLOVERS

Written By: Scott Hetsko

Only two more days are left in November and we currently rank 5th warmest all time in average temperature for November. Reliable records go back about 140 years for Rochester. The bad news for those who crave another Winter like last year is that NO ENSUING WINTER HAD OVER 86" OF SNOW.

Does this guarantee that we won't get 100" this year? Of course not but we cannot ignore statistical history. As for more immediate weather, I do see the pattern turning colder with the calendar. As a matter of fact, next week will be much colder and could stay that way for a little while. I won't get involved in silly debates about forecasts of 90 days. In a general way, we should see an up and down Winter with more thaws than last Winter. I still think 100" or better is very possible with one month of over 40". No one knows, I'm humble enough to know that!

30 comments:

  1. This is not good news, but it has been so unusually warm I have a feeling that this could be a mild and snowless winter. I guessed around 25 inches for December for the contest, but I could be way too high.

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  2. What's the sample size? Every warm November? Or the top 10 warmest Novembers?
    I'd argue last winter wasn't all that special outside of the favored snow belts anyway. It was cold.. but the snow was nothing special down here. At least this year I'm expecting a little more in the way of storm systems. Many of them may well be rain or mixed events..but at least there is a chance for a good old fashioned thumping.

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  3. Ok..just looked at the graph.. lol. Ignore my sample size question.

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  4. It is pretty sad when thge South gets snow before us.

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  5. Well I guess to make this positive, we should expect the worst and hope for the best, that way this winter won't sting as much. I'm just hoping for a white Christmas!

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  6. It's only 5 Novembers but the correlation is impressive. Also I should mention that each ensuing Winter was also warmer than average. That's how this Winter will probably be, a few snowstorms and mild breaks. I don't expect we'll see the consistent cold of last Winter.

    Scott

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  7. Hope you are right Scott. Last winter was unbearable. And then no spring on top of that.

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  8. Wow.. almost the entire decade of the 40's was short on snowfall. Winters of 48 and 01 both had total snowfall in the 50 inch range..1975 had a respectable 86 inches. Now I'm going to have to dig around a little to see what was different in 1975 so I can attempt to put a positive spin on this.

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  9. Yeah Caledonia you have to remember that each Winter is unique. We almost never had 100" snow seasons from the 1900s to the mid 1950s. They are much more common these days with about 20 100" seasons since 1990.

    Scott

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  10. Yeah, I just put everything in an excel spreadsheet, and yes, it did take a while... Anyway, not to go against Scott, but statistically, there is no correlation between the average November temperature and the annual snowfall. In fact, as far as numbers go, you can't find any correlation between annual temperature and annual snowfall!
    However, Scott hit the nail on the head, our annual snowfall has been on the increase over the years since the 40's. Just some numbers for thought!

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  11. Remember that the correlation I drew was ONLY the 5 warmest November's on record. Throw that on your spreadsheet and see what you come up with...

    Scott

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  12. Scott,
    I wonder if our winters have more snow because we are in a different phase of the PDO?

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  13. Scott,
    I actually did that first and you are correct, there is some correlation, you caught me trying to be positive! But yes, you are correct in saying there is some correlation with the top 5 warmest Novembers. However, in stats, the larger the sample size, the more reliable the study, and if you look from 1940-present, there is no correlation.
    I even found a stretch where we received 110.6" in 91', 131.5" in 92', 126.2" in 1993, and then out of nowhere, 56.2" in 94'! Followed by 130.3" in 95'. If that doesn't tell the story about how the numbers really don't matter around here, I don't know what does!
    One last thing I want to show you guys is the average annual snowfall per decade!
    40'-50' = 67.24"(0/10 years that were 100"+)
    50'-60' = 97.37" (4/10 years were 100"+)
    60'-70' = 84.78" (2/10 years were 100"+)
    70'-80' = 106.1" (4/10 years were 100"+)
    80'-90' = 88.78" (3/10 years were 100"+)
    90'-00' = 104.98" (7/10 years were 100"+)
    00'-10' = 104.55" (7/10 years were 100"+)
    And last winter was 127", but check it out for yourself people, there's some pretty interesting stuff.
    http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/climate/roc_snow00s.php

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  14. Thanks for all the info Scott/Weatherguy. I'd be interested to know if the correlation between warmest Novembers and snowfall totals is a result of less overall precipitation, or if there was just more rain mixed in with all that snow. I'm sure I could check it out myself but if Scott's busy it looks like Weatherguy has some time on his hands haha

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  15. Actually, I don't get it. I would think that warm Novembers would lead to snowier winters. My reasoning? Warmer autumns would leave the lake temperature a bit warmer. Thus, when cold fronts pass (as they inevitably will, even in a moderate winter), there would be a greater contrast between the lake temps and the atmospheric temperature, leading to more lake effect snowfall. What am I missing? (My first winter in Buffalo, we had a very mild autumn. First major snowfall was Christmas week... about 84 inches!... due to the warmer Lake Erie).

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  16. I am still thinking that we should keep an eye for next Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. I may be off but there is potential for a storm and particularly heavy LES. Just throwing it out there. Not sure what evreryone else thinks.

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  17. Haha Jo-Sef, I had that spreadsheet done a while ago as it was a project for a weather class I took at MCC, I just modified it a bit.
    Snowfan, you could be on to something with the PDO, isn't that similar to a long range el nino that fluctuates every 20-30 years?
    And Andrew, the models are trying to get something on the coast next week, and it does look as though lake effect may become a serious concern, especially with the temperature profiles being projected.

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  18. Yeah the PDO is a 20-30 year cycle discovered back in 1996 that impacts weather in North America. The PDO, AO, NAO, El Nino/La Nina ALL have relationships. Our recent snowy Winters in Rochester have been 50-70% lake effect or enhanced snowfall. I don't know of a study that has identified why this has occurred. I would bet it's a collections of reasons.

    Scott

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  19. Weatherguy, I have done similar spreadsheets too and know all about the recent snowier decades. I was purposely ONLY checking the top 5 warmest to show the correlation between the warmest Novembers only and ensuing Winters. You've gotta admit, it's an amazing coincidence.

    Scott

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  20. Also the PDO has been largely positive the past 30 years but that was also the case in the 1930s and 40s but we didn't have nearly the amount of snow we have recently.

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  21. There is a wave of low pressure to watch Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Looks like snow showers with some LES at the least. Worth watching!

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  22. Yeah, I do agree, I was actually a little upset about it because it doesn't make me feel too confident about this winter but, as you said, only time will tell!

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  23. Also, looking at all the snow amounts, temperatures, etc... I feel as though weather is still a fairly new science, with a lot of questions left unanswered and many more discoveries to made! Do you agree, or do think the experts have a fairly good grasp on the weather?

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  24. Thanks for your input regarding the PDO, Scott. Regarding next week's lake effect potential, are there any hints of whether the flow could reach the south shore of lake Ontario? Or could this be more of a WSW wind flow that would have a larger impact on the Buffalo to Batavia corridor?

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  25. I think we're much better at day to day forecasting than we were 30-40 years ago. Forecasts are reliable up to 4-7 days now whereas it was maybe a 1-2 day deal in the 60s and 70s. Climate study is the new frontier these days, finding the correlation between all these connections.

    Scott

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  26. About LES next week, winds will probably be WNW which would favor multiple band lake effect.

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  27. Scott and others, interesting observations. This past weekend I did my own simple analysis, but instead of temperature, I used snowfall.

    I looked at average monthly snowfall from 1960-last winter. Avg snow fall for the last 49 winters in November is around 7" and average annual snowfall is just over 98". I then looked at Novembers where we had less than 1" since 1960, and there were 6, and the average annual snowfall for those winters was 96.6".

    So I'm not seeing a strong correlation between lack of November snow and total snow for the winter. So there is hope.

    As for last winter, while we had a load of snow in lake effect areas, making it one of the snowiest on record, most came a couple inches at a time and we had no decent storms.

    So my point is, November doesn't seem to set the tone for the winter and total snow fall doesn't necessarily mean an exciting winter. I'm sure like most on this blog, I'd gladly put up with a bit less snow and a tad warmer temps provided we can get a couple of good snow storms to make things interesting.

    Andy

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  28. I LOOKED AT THE MODELS AND I SEE A WEEK STORM FOR NEXT WEEK THAT GOES TO OUR WEST. AM I MISSING SOMETHING?

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  29. Hi All,

    Great, interesting #'s Scott, WeatherGuy & Andy! We are due for a lackluster winter or very snowy winter. We have not had an extreme winter in awhile. Last winter was impressive with the snowfall total thanks to the prolonged cold, lake snow areas & just nickeled & dimed to death, but no big storms. The last time we had a lot of storms impact the area I believe was the winter of 2002-03 when ended up with over 135" with quite a few storms impacting the region. At the same time, the last very weak winter with 30 to 40" below average snowfall was way back in 2001-02 (58"), though 2005-06 was pretty weak too with just about 74". Time will tell, but we are due for one of the two.

    Early to mid next week does look interesting with the wave of low pressure developing along the strong cold front. Significant lake snows for someone could definitely follow the storm no matter what type & amount of precipitation we see from the storm. As Scott mentioned, it's way to early to get too excited about the snow potential, but it's definitely worth watching! Come on mother nature make us snow lovers happy!

    John

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  30. As an avid snowmobiler, winters tend to stick in my memory pretty well.

    I remember the winter of 2001-02, which was the first year I had a sled. Out here in northern Wayne County, there literally was no snow accumulation the entire winter! I rode 50 miles locally that year, I believe, and that came during a 10" snowfall in early March 2002. Compare that to the 1,300+ I rode in 2004-05. It snowed, but it would melt afterwards and leave nothing but bare ground until it snowed again. It resembled a winter in Maryland or southern PA. I see the total for that year was 58". The only snow to be found that was rideable was on the Tug Hill Plateau (I also remember the 100+" that fell 12/26-27, 2001 on the Hill and south of Buffalo on a SW wind).

    Another low snow year was 2005-06. I remember getting a few decent snowfalls in mid-December that year, then it warmed up the week of Xmas, and never snowed again until early February (other than 1" here and there). I had a brand new snowmobile that year and put 77 miles on it the day after I bought it (December 20) and it sat for 6 weeks after that without ever being used!

    Good winters for riding locally were 2002-03 (best one in last ten years with consistent statewide snow), 2006-07 (good snow all winter, though not as consistent as 02-03), 2004-05 which was a year with many Alberta clippers and there actually was more snow south of the lakes than up here.

    2003-04 featured TONS of snow out here in Wayne County, mostly LES. I think we had over 200" in Sodus Pt that year. 2008-09 and 2010-11 were also good years, with last year being the second best in the past decade, that I can recall.

    With a camp in NE Oswego County now, I am less concerned with local snowfall than in years past. Where my cabin is, the average snow totals are around 200". According to the locals, even in a mild winter, they still get decent snow up there on the SW corner of Tug Hill.

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