Get your daily dose of weather news

with Scott Hetsko, Chief Meteorologist

RSS FEED SUBSCRIBE BY EMAIL

Our weather blog brings you expert perspective on the latest weather news. Our weather experts share the inside scoop with blog entries from the studio and from the field. Check out the latest weather news and storm coverage in our most recent blog entries.

Tuesday, December 6

Colder, but Mainly Quiet



Written by John DiPasquale:


Hello everyone! Well, as you can see on the temperature map from mid morning this morning, the mid winter chill has a good hold on the Plains & Upper Great Lakes region. The really cold stuff will not get in here, but we will receive a modified, glancing blow from this arctic air mass Friday night into Saturday. Precipitation wise, there will be a few light spotty showers & drizzle around today & tonight, which I believe will change to a few flurries/snow shower late tonight into the start of our Wednesday. There may even be a bit of freezing drizzle/mist across the high terrain South of the Thruway late tonight & to begin tomorrow. Be mindful of this possibility if you have any travel plans in the hills South later tonight & tomorrow morning.


Most of our Wednesday will be quiet & chilly with intervals of sun developing. Meanwhile, a nor'easter will be developing near the coast, but will likely travel too far East to have really any significant impact on our area. What the storm will do, though, is increase the winds & the chill which could very well spell a little lake snow late Wednesday night into Thursday morning on a west-northwest flow. This will likely not be a big deal, but something we will be keeping an eye on.


A strong cold front will blow through later Friday/Friday night with some snow showers & maybe a bit of lake snow to follow Friday night into Saturday morning. Highs Friday will only be in the mid 30s, while we will have a tough time getting out of the 20s Saturday, despite some sun! Brrr!!!


Sunday should turn a bit breezy & milder, more seasonable with some sun.


32 comments:

  1. We should still keep an eye on it as John has said. It has been moving more west every model run. You never know but I do think January is going to be a snow filled month hang in there plowers.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I agree Andrew, it is trending more toward the west and you never know, stranger things have happened. But next week looks interesting with the jet setting up in a favorable position to bring storms to the east and even more inland. Only problem is the models are waffling as to where the cold air sets up. Then again, it still is a week out!

    ReplyDelete
  3. First big snow to hit Buffalo on Friday! Below is from the National Weather Service:

    FOR THE BUFFALO METRO AREA…MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE APPEARING RATHER
    FAVORABLE…WITH LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS UP OVER 10K FEET BY LATE IN
    THE DAY FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOME FAVORABLY ALIGNED FOR SEVERAL
    HOURS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IF THIS PANS
    OUT…WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY LAKE SNOWS
    MOVE INTO THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. WHETHER THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
    EVENT IS STILL IN QUESTION…BUT IT DOES APPEAR IT WILL BE THE FIRST
    DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF THE WINTER SEASON.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Scott,
    What does your gut tell you about when a pattern change will come to give us extended cold and snowy conditions? And I'm not talking about these little 2-3 day flings with cold and then a return to 40's. Do you have any thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Sorry to say this, but I really do not care that Buffalo will get snow. On a West-NW wind that will only favor Wayne county and not Rochester. A snowless December!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  6. Back into the 40's next week. I dream of last years December.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Those old Christmas classics that I love are back:

    Brown Christmas
    Let It Rain
    Frosty The (Melted) Snowman
    I Don't Have To Shovel (I just made that one up)

    Whatever is going on I hope it continues. NWS says above ave temps until 18th or so. Great news.

    ReplyDelete
  8. I still say keep an eye on January for our area. I think it is going to be cold and we will get a storm or two. It does really hurt the plowers and those outside winter fun activities. Thus, for them let it snow,let it snow,let it snow.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Why is the NWS saying "Heavy Snow" for friday night?? Do they know something we don't? Should I put my plows on?

    ReplyDelete
  10. Not sure where you have seen that. I just checked and saw furries for Friday night.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Sorry I mean flurries.

    ReplyDelete
  12. It does indeed say Heavy Snow

    ReplyDelete
  13. What site says that?

    ReplyDelete
  14. NOAA says snow may be heavy at times Friday night.

    ReplyDelete
  15. The latest short term models do have this storm making a big jump west but still think we are on the outer fringes but you never know.

    ReplyDelete
  16. The "Heavy Snow" noted on the NWS point-n-click forecast is probably a bit carried away. Don't expect any Advisories or Watches to come out of it. We may get a burst of snow Friday PM as the short wave crosses the area, but the truly heavy snow will be WELL to our southwest from Batavia over to Buffalo. An ongoing lake effect snow event will be taking place over there with SW'erly winds funneling up lake Erie....NOT Ontario. You're better off reading the forecast discussion than relying on the point-n-click forecast for Rochester.

    And by the way, the snow friday night has NOTHING to do with that storm some of you are seeing chugging up the east coast. That storm will be long gone by then...

    ReplyDelete
  17. Brandon in FarmingtonDecember 7, 2011 at 12:46 PM

    Alright, so I have given up on the coastal storm backing up far enough to drop a few inches on us here in the Rochester area, but what happened to all the talk about next week trending colder with the jet setting up in a favorable position for storms to influence us. Now all I see is the NWS predicting above normal again for the next two weeks. What gives? All the hype dwindled literally in like 36 hours. Somebody please give me a glimmer of hope for some snow!!!

    ReplyDelete
  18. DECEMBER LOOKS DISMAL FOR SNOW. I THINK WE WILL BE LUCK TI TO SEE 10 INCHES THE WAY THINGS ARE GOING. WE MISS THE STORMS AND LAKE EFFECT EVENTS ALL THE TIME. SAME OLD STORY. SOME HOW WE GET NICKLED AND DIMED ENOUGH TO MAKE 100 INCHES NEAR THE LAKE EACH YEAR. NEXT WEK LOOKS WARM AND IN THE 40'S.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Blame it on the MJO (Madden–Julian oscillation). The MJO is effecting our teleconnections (NAO/AO/PNA) this year. The National Weather Service had a nice write up on this a week or two back. The MJO has to "orbit" around to a more favorable phase before any truly lasting cold and snow can setup across the northeast. Some have tried to blame the unexpected mild winter so far on a weaker than expected ENSO - but that's bull. A weaker ENSO would favor MORE cold than a stronger ENSO, as this has been shown over the years. Also, Siberian Snow Cover was average this year, rather than any positive anomalies. So, unlike that last few years, we can't look to Siberia for any glimmer of hope to setup blocking.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Weatherdan, complaining about the weather is not going to change it! And its only going to be in the low 40's beginning next week, with a couple storms that bear watching. On top of that, its only going to be the second week of December! There is still plenty of time to get some snow so relax!

    ReplyDelete
  21. About 2 weeks before the end of May it appeared that the rain would never stop and we'd had no chance above 65 degrees. Then like the flip of a switch it got warm and dry in a hurry. The opposite can easily happen this month.

    Andy

    ReplyDelete
  22. I love it. We are surrounded by Watches and warnings and then there is Rochester. Nothing!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  23. Hi Weatherguy, I am just frustrated with this snowless weather. It is going to be in the mid 40's through next Wednesday which is December 14th and almost half way through the month with not even an inch of snow. We are missing all tghe lake effect and the storm to our South. it is the same story every year. I thought Scott said the storm track would be further West this year. Not happening. We miss 2 storms already South and East.

    ReplyDelete
  24. It is starting to get a little frustrating. The pattern for the future does not look good. It looks like a green Christmas and who knows about the rest of the winter.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Why is everyone complaining? It's not even winter yet and the average high temp is 39. It'll snow when the temps start to hang around the freezing mark. Geez.

    ReplyDelete
  26. "It's not even winter yet." I hear that all the time, but it doesn't make sense. Climate doesn't follow the calender year. By the time calender winter arrives, Rochester should already have had over a foot of snow. Some Decembers have had over 40" of snow...most of it falling BEFORE calender winter!! So, your argument about the calender doesn't fit meteorologically. If that were the case, we'd all be freaking out on March 21st (the first day of Spring), because snow was still in the forecast. People, get over this whole "winter doesn't even start yet" crap.

    And secondly, your remark that "it will start to snow when temps start to hang around the freezing mark." Well, yes, duh. But that's the problem. See, 39 is an AVERAGE....meaning, we're have days where the high should be below 39 and above 39. Weather is not that stable that we'll be right at average every day. The problem is, we haven't had any days where temps have stayed at or below freezing. We should have by now (since we should have 10" on average by now). And the forecast continues to show only very brief shots of cold followed by temps warming back into the 40's. So for you to think that the climate will just smoothly settle with the average and snow will come "right on schedule" is silly - and quite frankly, it come across as ignorant to just how complicated forecasting weather can be.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Good point Robbie. The concept that it's "not even winter yet", when you think about it, is false because it's ALL RELATIVE. A couple hundered miles to our north, in Ontario Canada, snow is supposed to be on the ground by November...a full month before the calender says its winter. And snow typically doesn't fully melt until mid April...a full month AFTER the calender says its Spring. Also, look at a place like Atlanta, GA, calender; seasons on the calender mean nothing. Some years, flowers start blooming, and trees begin budding in Atlanta in mid March, before the calender even says its spring. And then look at us here in Western New York. The first day of fall is around September 22nd, yet our trees are still fully green, and days are still mostly in the 70's at that time. It's not until Halloween, over a full month past the first day of autumn, that we really start to look like autumn around these parts.

    Such simple minded people...

    ReplyDelete
  28. So what has it been ....1 week without insults?

    It is just opinion...doesn't seem like insulting people on a blog is needed.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Brandon in FarmingtonDecember 8, 2011 at 11:34 AM

    I moved to Rochester from Northern Michigan three years ago and love the snow. Needless to say, we had plenty of snow there every winter. I was happy to see that this area averages nearly 100" of snow so I was naive to believe I would be witnessing some real doozies durring the winter months. After three winters I give up. I have yet to see anything that should really be called a snowstorm. Seems like we get generally some light snowfalls through the season and splash in a fair amount of light lake effect and by March I'm always wondering how on earth we made it too or past 100" because its always been the nickle and dime effect. I am no meteorologist but I love weather and do alot of research into climatology so I do feel pretty strongly that I think our real problem here is that Western, NY just does not lie geographically in your favorable historic storm track vicinity. I often hear that low pressure areas tend to not ride up the spine of the Appalachians which would be a favorable track for us more often. Instead they ride up the coast in typical Noreaster fashion or cut to our west over Ohio or lower MIchigan. I would really like it if the News 8 Stormteam could give some more insight into this. Just seems to me like the only hope we have here for all out blizzards is your once every 20 years Noreaster that is massive enough to sling back snow this far west.

    ReplyDelete
  30. I agree with you Brandon. Unless you are in a Lake effect area North of the Thruway or North of 104 your do not see a lot of snow during the winter because we ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS miss out on the BIG storms. Like you said they either cut West of us or miss us South and East like the last 2 snowstorms. We seem to have our own HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM right over us to divert storms either West or South and EAST. Over the past several years you rarely see s storm ride up the Appalachians. They always ride up the coast and miss us.It is frustrating.

    ReplyDelete
  31. so move to where it is going to snow. no sense in complaining about something we have control of. Only thing you have control of is to go live where the storms are going. Until then, be patient and enjoy the snow we do (will) get. There is a difference in being frustrated and upset we are missing snow (which i am), and complaining and acting like someone is purposly steering the snow around us. Just my two sense, no offense intended.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Yeah, the insults have driven me away. I used to read it regularly but now, I just watch Scott's forecast. Andrew turned out to be a great contributor to the blog and a few more turned negative. As for Robbie calling someone ignorant for giving an opinion, well, that's not worth the time to type it. Grow up folks. This is like reading an episode of ICarly! Enjoy winter folks.

    ReplyDelete

Blog Archive