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Friday, December 16

Colder with a Bit of Snow this Weekend



Written by John DiPasquale:


Mainly quiet, brisk & colder this afternoon, but tonight into Saturday there will be some limited lake snows developing as the colder air deepens. Winds will shift into the northwest & produce a coating to an inch or two for most, but as much as 1 to 4", if not a bit more, could very well fall in localized areas just North & East of Rochester & down in some of the hills South of the Thruway. Any lake snows will slowly diminish Saturday afternoon as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Temperatures tomorrow will struggle to get into the low 30s with a bit of a brisk breeze.


A few more snow showers will try to come through late Saturday night into Sunday with a warm front & disturbance & possibly leave a very light accumulation, but overall Sunday should turn out to be fairly uneventful the way it looks now. Highs on Sunday will make the mid 30s.


It will be milder to start next week on Monday back into the 40s, but it should turn a bit colder for Tuesday which may set us up for some snow &/or a mix developing later Tuesday/Tuesday night. The storm for the middle of next week may also be mainly rain, depending on the track of the storm. Stay tuned & we'll keep you posted on the latest.


Have a great day & weekend everyone!


22 comments:

  1. I am not trying to be negative, but next weeks storm looks to go West and the one around Christmas looks to go South and East. I know thinsg will change, but it does not look good for a White Christmas.

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  2. Love the new andrew...growing tired of weatherdanDecember 16, 2011 at 5:40 PM

    Didn't I read the same thing last night and the night before that? Then one of the mets says you can't just look at models? Got to be demoralizing for Scott and the others to think that many on here have the idea thar forecasting is nothing more than looking at a model for 10 seconds.

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  3. Dan.. I'm pretty confident that Christmas storm isn't going to verify as modeled right now. If there IS a storm it's likely to trend North West on the modeling as it gets closer.

    Besides.. that's my Christmas miracle storm so it has to give us at least a few inches.

    ( Tongue firmly in cheek on that last one )

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  4. Weatherdan hang in there we still do not know about those two storms yet. Do not be negative like the former me. Wait until Sunday and there will be more accurate solutions about the Tuesday/Wednesday event. The one thing that scares me is that accuweather has its new map out and we are in the moderate to heavy snowfall swath but they are always wrong! I do believe a strong eye should be kept on Tuesday and Saturday. We have not had a Christmas day storm in many years beware.

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  5. Wow, I guess you cannot state what you think on this blog without being scorned. This is not towards you Andrew. I am not an expert by any means guys, I am just stating an opinion to stir on some conversation on what others think. Let'grow up a bit and not scorn people for their opinions or statements. I will never scorn you for your opinion. Mama Mia.

    Thanks Andrew

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  6. There is a nice band of lake snows developing over lake Ontario.... as the wind shifts the snow will come close or over the shore so Webster, Ontario, Williamson, and Greece should all expect snow overnight maybe a few inches when its all said and done.

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  7. Charles that isn't lake effect snow. Those are snow showers due to lift out ahead of another cold front which crosses in about 1-3 hours. Lake snow showers will develop overnight and Saturday morning.

    Scott

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  8. Just curious didnt the NWS call that a lake band?

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  9. Scott we know it is to early to tell but what is your gut feeling about about midweek? The new and improved Andrew ha ha

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  10. I don't know...laziness I guess but I can guarantee you that is prefrontal.

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  11. I like this new Andrew guy a lot. My gut tells me rain over to snow showers for that one. I think we still have got a shot for next Friday and Christmas weekend itself for some snow. There certainly isn't a blockbuster anywhere soon.

    Scott

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  12. Snowing pretty hard in Hilton.

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  13. Oh my God. Is that snow falling from the sky? I almost forgot what it looked like. LOL. Only a dusting in Eastern Wayne County,but I will take anything

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  14. There is nothing there for next week. It will be the worst December ever for snow and January does not look much better. As Scott said there are no major storms in sight. Unfortunately it is going to be a long winter with very little snow and more rain.

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  15. pretty heavy snow in Webster right now.... about 1/2 mile visibility.

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  16. This forum is dead! An uneventful winter will do that and it will be like this the rest of the winter sorry.

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  17. Hee, Heee--a foot of snow expected across south west, AZ, NM, OK, TX---nada here. I'm lovin' it!!!!

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  18. Yep, looks like a very quiet week ahead with no chances for snow. Oh well. Green Christmas looks like a lock this year. It looks like we may break the least snowiest December record as well.
    I feel sorry for the ski resorts and people that make their living during the winter. The person that states they are loving this snowless winter should think about that. A lot of people are hurt financially when it does not snow.

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  19. HI Weather Dan - what are you basing your forecast on? Just curious....

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  20. Snow lover here and I am just as upset as everyone else but may I remind people that their is about 3 full months left for snow....... a lot can happen

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  21. Hi Sandra, the NWS forecast. They just put out the weekly forecast discussion and it will be rain Tueday and Wednesday and then quiet for the rest of week through Christmas weekend. They even went as for as talking about the first few weeks of January. They say we will remain well above normal in temps and little chances for snow. See below:

    LOOKING FURTHER OUT...THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN PREDICTING THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BASICALLY REMAIN THE SAME THROUGH THE WEEK
    BETWEEN CHRISTMAS AND NEW YEARS. 925 MB TEMPS AND 700 MB HEIGHTS HAVE AVERAGED ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES/BRITISH COLUMBIA AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...CENTRAL SIBERIA
    DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS...WHILE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND TEMPS HAVE BEEN FOUND OVER GREENLAND. THIS ALL BOILS DOWN TO A LACK OF
    BLOCKING...WHICH IN TURN PREVENTS COLD AIR FROM BUILDING UP...WHICH IN TURN KEEPS SNOW COVER AT A MINIMUM THEREBY REINFORCING THE ABOVE
    NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A GREENLAND BLOCK IS ONE SUCH BLOCK...BUT A PERSISTENT ICELANDIC LOW HAS BEEN IN PLACE INSTEAD. THIS PROMOTES A
    LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW `UNDERNEATH` /TO THE SOUTH/ OF IT.

    THE ECMWF AND GEFS SUGGEST THAT WHILE THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL GET SHORT VISITS FROM SEASONABLY COLD /850 MB TEMPS OF APPROXIMATELY
    -10 TO -14C/ AIR MASSES...A LOW AMPLITUDE PACIFIC BASED FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE U.S-CANADIAN BORDER.

    This means a lack of snow and cold for us.

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