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Thursday, December 15

Near Record Warmth Today; Back to Reality Tomorrow



Written by John DiPasquale:


Near record warmth today, but reality returns late tonight into the weekend. Temperatures will range from 55 to near 60 through about 2 or 3, before the air begins to cool & then turns much colder later this evening & overnight in the wake of a 6 to 9pm this evening frontal passage. A few showers will likely accompany the front this evening & there may even be a couple of late night snow showers or flurries as temps plummet into the mid 30s.

It will be very windy tonight through early Friday afternoon before winds settle later tomorrow afternoon. Winds will gust in excess of 40 mph at times, especially in the hills later tonight into Friday. So if you have light x-mas decorations outside you may want to tie them down or bring them inside or into the garage.


Friday will be blustery with highs ranging from 35 to 40 with a few scattered snow showers possible through the early afternoon, as a reinforcing shot of colder air comes through.


Some flurries &/or a bit of light snow will most likely develop later Saturday & especially Saturday night. Snow MAY become briefly moderate late Saturday night into early Sunday as a warm front pushes into the area with a healthy disturbance. This COULD produce a light accumulation region wide by Sunday morning. It would look nice & festive. Wouldn't it? Stay tuned.


Again next Tuesday night into Wednesday we are still watching a storm that COULD produce some measurable snow, but it will depend on the track. The models have been jumping the track of this system from just North & West to just South & East the last few days.


Have a great day everyone!


21 comments:

  1. Keep an eye on it because I think this one is going to be a favorable track for us and we will get moderate snow storm next Tuesday/Wednesday.

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  2. Andrew, you like a changed man.

    I just had to get my 1 year old snowblower fixed. 180 dollars!!! I better get to use it now! haha

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  3. THE NWS HAS US IN THE MID 40'S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT WILL NOT SNOW IF IT IS THAT WARM.

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  4. I JUST LOOKED AT THE GFS AND IF THAT MODEL WINS OUT IT WILL BE ALL RAIN NEXT WEEK.

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  5. Weatherdan, models have been flopping every run. I wont look at models till Sunday afternoon.

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  6. ALL THE CHANNELS HAVE RAIN AND TEMPS IN THE 40'S
    NEST WEEK.

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  7. No they haven't weatherdan. David has it right, models cannot properly resolve on cut off lows until they are on the move again. You'll see tonight that either the 18Z or 00Z GFS run take that storm South again. This is again why 7 day forecasts generally stink! There, I said it!

    Scott

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  8. Your are right Scott. I have to stop doing that.

    Thanks

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  9. Rain will taper off but it will get much colder overnight. I'd expect rain to end in 2-3 hours.

    Scott

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  10. Good news!!! NWS just put out 1 month outlook for Jan----above ave temps likely to continue. Don't like the looks of above ave precip but you can't have everything.

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  11. I'm convinced that people who live in a typically cold and snowy place like Rochester, yet want to see bare, muddy grass all winter long rather than a fresh snow cover, are boring people with boring personalities and interests. Just sayin'...

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  12. It definately looks like rain next week and a chance for a White Christmas is looking real bad. Next weeks storm will pass to our West. I wonder who will win the December snowfall contest? The person that said less than 4 inches looks to win.
    This is unreal.

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  13. Weatherdan you have to stop the negativity you sound like the old Andrew ha ha. I know you are trying to use the old reverse psychology and want snow badly. Be positive and it will come. Remember wait until Sunday to get a handle on track of the storm Tuesday. You can not say yet it is for sure going to our west. Anyways the one to watch is Christmas weekend that maybe the snow storm we are waiting for. Hang in there and keep dreaming of a white Christmas.

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  14. Thanks Andrew. I love snow and I am so disgusted
    with this December. I hope you are right about Christmas weekend.

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  15. Okay, as silly as it sounds we need to be positive and use the power of persuasion. Think COLD!

    Andy

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  16. WHY WOULD ANYONE WANT SNOW?! SNOW IS TERRIBLE, YOU HAVE TO SCRAPE YOUR CARS, SHOVEL YOUR DRIVEWAYS AND WALKS, BE ANNOYED BY THE COLD. YOU PEOPLE ARE CRAZY, ESPECIALLY YOU WEATHERDAN. BRING ON THE SUN, HEAT, AND GOLF!

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  17. One of the advantages of living in Western New York is the change in the seasons. Obviously warm sunshine is awesome, but so is a blinding snow storm! No one likes driving on dangerous roads or shoveling a foot of snow but at least it's a change from mowing, weeding, pruning and raking. Every season has it's pros and cons. This non-season of dead grass and leafless trees but no snow to cover everything up is depressing. I do think it's a little strange for someone who doesn't appreciate weather to keep posting on a weather blog....

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  18. Jman, While no one enjoys sun, warmth and golf more than I do, now is not the time. It's time to enjoy winter snow and its beauty. It's sad that you don't know how to live where you live.

    Snowluver, well said!

    Andy

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  19. The fact of the matter is if you live in New York, you are not going to get sun, heat, and golf all year round, so I would much rather see a beautiful coating (or several inches) of snow than mud, rain, and dreariness. It's going to be cold either way! 45 and rainy is too cold and muddy for golf. Make it 25 and snowy and we can go sledding, skiiing, ice skating, make snowmen, go for walks, etc...instead of being stuck inside watching more rain!

    Yes, snow can be inconvenient, but I feel bad for those people who moan and groan about the weather here, and don't embrace it. That means you spend at least half of your life here unhappy! Seems sad to me.

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  20. Ditto!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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