Get your daily dose of weather news

with Scott Hetsko, Chief Meteorologist

RSS FEED SUBSCRIBE BY EMAIL

Our weather blog brings you expert perspective on the latest weather news. Our weather experts share the inside scoop with blog entries from the studio and from the field. Check out the latest weather news and storm coverage in our most recent blog entries.

Wednesday, December 14

Mild Today; Near Record Warmth Tomorrow!



Written by John DiPasquale:


The incredible lackluster December continues here in WNY! Clouds will be rolling in this afternoon & eventually produce some showers late today & especially tonight into Thursday. I do not expect much rain out of this system over the next 24 to 36 hours. Somewhere between a tenth to a third of an inch with a few spots picking up a half an inch by days end Thursday. The warm front shown in the satellite/radar image on the left will pass through tonight with some showers & the winds will begin to howl between 15 & 30, with gusts ranging 40 to 50, especially in the hills which may lead to a few power outages & minor tree damage. Temperatures tonight will go from around 40 early into the low 50s for most by dawn tomorrow!


On Thursday, it will be very windy still & very mild with near record warmth, as highs warm well into the 50s to maybe even near 60 during the midday! If we hit 60, we will tie a record that has been standing since 1975! A strong cold front will blow through & push out the very mild air tomorrow night with a few showers turning to flurries late Thursday night. Temperatures come Friday will be back into the mid to upper 30s, which is where readings should be this time of year. There may be a few snow showers/flurries Friday morning, otherwise some sun will shine with a blustery wind.


The weekend will feature quite a few clouds & possibly a bit of snow Saturday night into Sunday morning ahead & with a warm front. At this point it does not look like much, but there may be some minor accumulations. The weather should quiet down Sunday into Monday for the most part & then we will have to watch a storm for the middle of next week. It still a ways away, but there is a chance we could see some significant snow &/or rain out of this one. Of course, it all depends on the track. The Euro has it hooking to the West, while the GFS is bringing it just to the South & East, which would be better for all you snow lovers out there. Time will tell.


Have a great night everyone & by the way, if you would like to submit a weather picture to weather@rochesterhomepage.net your shot will likely end up on the air around 645am some weekday morning during our morning show! It's as easy as taking a pic & sending it to us via the website above! Thank you to all who participate! Don't be shy!


18 comments:

  1. I will not get my hopes up until I actually see snow falling and accumulating. I am not trying to be negative snow lovers, but the storms have been going West or too far South and East. We will see.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I am saying keep an eye on the Christmas eve time frame. I believe we will have a good chance for a snow event. Just stating my opinion based on the pattern change that will take place in the middle of next week. They say good things come to those who wait. Just staying positive!

    ReplyDelete
  3. I think there will be two opportunities for snow. One will be mid next week and the other on Christmas eve or day.

    Scott

    ReplyDelete
  4. Yeah, next week looks a bit better than the past month and a half around here. Models are coming into better agreement on the low for next Tuesday, which are hinting at a track up through the Tennessee and Ohio valley, but where it goes from there is still in the works. And for Christmas eve, it looks as though another low is going to ride along a front up the eastern seaboard. Only time will tell!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Scott, I just wanted to commend your team for calling like it is. You guys have been spot on with your forecasts so far this young winter season and I can't wait to hear your thoughts on next week as we get closer!
    Also, do you think our White Christmas forecast is going to change from doubtful to probable!? I don't want to jinx it, but I am starting to get apprehensive!

    ReplyDelete
  6. Scott,
    Many on here speculate about what the operational models are showing. But I was wondering if you could give us a quick update on what you're seeing in the ensembles, such as the NCEP 500mb Height Mean Anomaly, and the MREF. Those tend to give a better picture of the overall pattern long range as opposed to the flip floppin' GFS.

    ReplyDelete
  7. All long range ensembles seems to indicated a circumpolar vortex closing off in Northeast Hudson Bay late next week and over Christmas weekend. My favorite winter time ensemble model is the Canadian one. It indicates a change toward and eastern trough around that time which would favor cold and snow.

    Scott

    ReplyDelete
  8. Amen Amen. A white Christmas after all?????

    ReplyDelete
  9. Maybe, weatherdan. Or, it might kick in JUST beyond Christmas. In any case, it looks like at least a subtle pattern change is on the way toward the end of December...

    ReplyDelete
  10. Thanks, Scott. I check this blog at least once a day, and I find it very insightful. Keep up the great work Scott and team!

    ReplyDelete
  11. I would love to see a white Christmas. But if not, please at least bring us enough cold air to make lots and lots of snow at the ski resorts!

    I'd like to finally put my golf clubs away.

    Andy

    ReplyDelete
  12. Michele in PenfieldDecember 14, 2011 at 9:42 PM

    What do you all think about the forecast discussion from Buffalo's National Weather Service for Sat and Sat. night.............Will Rochester be "lucky" and get some Lake Effect???

    LOOK FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK ON
    SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPS
    ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS THE
    POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT HYBRID SYNOPTIC-LAKE EFFECT EVENT AS
    WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -12C COULD
    ENHANCE THE ABUNDANT SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND
    THE FORECAST AREA/S LOCATION UNDERNEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
    JET STREAK DIVING OUT OF CANADA. AT THIS TIME MODEL AGREEMENT IS
    SURPRISINGLY GOOD REGARDING THIS SCENARIO AND AS A RESULT WILL BUMP
    POPS UP TO HIGH CHANCE...BUT I DO NOT WANT TO GO TOO CRAZY AT THIS
    POINT GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT MINOR DETAILS
    COULD HAVE A BIG EFFECT ON ALL IMPORTANT DETAILS. EITHER WAY...IT
    APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
    HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S TO 20S ACROSS THE TUG HILL SATURDAY WITH
    LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S SATURDAY NIGHT.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Hi Michele

    I think we may get a 1-3" snow from this but I don't see much lake effect for Rochester. The airmass is cold but highly sheared in the boundary layer which is not good for lake effect snow.

    Scott

    ReplyDelete
  14. Scott, in your mind, what is the single most important factor for lake effect snow to really get going?

    ReplyDelete
  15. Hmmm...00Z NAM looks much more promising about the prospect of lake snow sticking around into early Sunday. Could be locally significant North of the thruway. Good wind direction and moisture looks sufficient for the area. Good news for fans of snow, perhaps.

    Scott

    ReplyDelete
  16. It does look a bit promising...

    ReplyDelete
  17. Did something change this AM? John did not mention much of anything for Sunday.

    ReplyDelete
  18. I can't believe it is RAINING again. It does nothing but rain in Rochester every day. It has been raining for months.

    ReplyDelete

Blog Archive