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Monday, December 12

DUDE, WHERE'S MY SNOW?

Written By: Scott Hetsko

We've been here before. Fooled by a slow start only to get slammed by cold and snow in the new year. Time will tell of course but as of today, we have had only 1.8" of snow the first 12 days of December. There won't be any recorded snow for at least the next 7-10 days, maybe longer.

Accuweather still has us in the "Probable" category for a White Christmas. I would put us in the "Doubtful" but possible category. The important climate indices point to colder and snowy weather in January. We'll see, until then enjoy the break.

18 comments:

  1. No matter how bad it gets after the first of the year, it still makes for a short winter....especially compared to last year.

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  2. Scott,
    Does it look like the MJO will finally orbit into a favorable phase in January? I've read that that's one of the big factors that's been messing up our indices this year...

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  3. True, Sal. But, over the last couple winters, where we've gotten over 100", is there any one "event" that you can think of where you're like, "wow, that was quite a storm." For me, there was not. But I'm in Rochester. You may have had more out there in Wayne county. In any case, my point is that while yes we've had a couple above average snowfall winters lately, we've been absolutely nicked and dimed through the entirety. IF the pattern can turn around, I'd be happy with a shorter winter if we could get one or two huge, blockbuster snowstorms that we can sit back and say "wow, I know exactly what I was doing when that storm hit!". That's just my thoughts on it.

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  4. I agree Snowfan. I really want a storm that has a WOW factor. Not the nickle and dime crap we always receive.

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  5. I remember a WOW storm! How about the Valentine's Day storm in 2007? 18-24" of snow in Monroe County. Rochester got 21" I think your memory is short, SnowFan.

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  6. Very true, Scott. And what's interesting about that year is we had only 4.3 inches in December that year! Then, just an average January - nothing to write home about. And then, BAM, we get that huge storm in February. That was sort of my point, that even if much of the winter is uneventful, even if we can get one or two big ones - like The Valentines Day storm, I'd still be happy. And you pointed out that we could have a 40" month in January or February. I think that you will end up being right on that one. The flood gates of the Arctic cold will get hear eventually.

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  7. For once I want to break one of your records---Least snow in December. LET'S GO FOR IT!!
    Sure hoping this continues into jan.

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  8. I vividly remember that storm. It buried my ice rink and literally snowed all day. And if I recall correctly, we broke 100" that year too. Chances are we will be under 100" this year, but that doesn't mean winter will be a bust. The past couple Marches and Aprils have been straight up uneventful, so maybe March will make up for December this year.

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  9. How about that March 1993 storm? Talk about a wow factor! I know what you mean. You never forget some storms. And while I personally enjoy this mild stretch of winter so far, I also am a firm believer that the pendulum always swings the other way and we have lots of time for it to do some swinging.

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  10. I remember waiting for the pattern to change in 2001-02, but it never did. Above average temps and minimal snow all winter.

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  11. What is dissappointing is that in Scott's winter forecast he gauranteed us a white Christmas and now it looks as if we have no chance. That is why you should never do a winter forecast. I give him creidt for trying but things change weekly with patterns. I think we might break the least snowiest December ever. We might as well break some record.

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  12. weatherdan -Before weather comes ratings. TV is first and foremost about entertainment. This is why news stations give us 'Winter Updates" and predictions. They also serve to keep us tuning in.

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  13. Blame the MJO. Until that MJO becomes less active, our weather pattern will not be favorable. It has messed up the weather pattern for the entire hemisphere thus far.

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  14. It would be interesting to see if we can break the all-time least snowiest December ever. We may not like it, but lets break a record. It looks like all the storms coming down the pike will cut West, cool us off very briefly and then warm us back up before the next storm cuts to our West.

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  15. Well, it looks like we are having yet ANOTHER cloudy, dreary day in Rochester. It is always cloudy in Rochester, it rains all the time, the sun never shines in Rochester.

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  16. We've had 3 days in a row of sunshine in Lyons. That's not too common in Dec. in Upstate NY.

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  17. This December is not too common. The sun is beautiful though.

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