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Friday, December 30

No More Snow for Most until Next Year



Written by John DiPasquale:


Quiet & milder than average through much of New Year's, before big changes BLOW in on gusty cold west to northwest to northerly or north-northwest winds late Sunday through Tuesday night. This will yield some significant lake snows for many early next week, likely including the Greater Rochester area. Temperatures will drop into the 20s Monday, and teens Tuesday, with wind chills likely dipping to around or below zero by Tuesday along with significant blowing & drifting snows. Now of course areas where the snows are most persistent will receive the most, but the way things are looking now it looks like most will receive at least a few inches or more. Stay tuned for updates on this return to winter through the weekend!


47 comments:

  1. Im here, Im here! Been very busy... Like John said, still a couple days away. If things dont change much, and I dont think they will. The lakes are very very warm for this time of year so even though it wont be a perfect fetch for us, (which it really never is because of our location) But with that being said, Wayne, Monroe, even Orleans County should at the VERY least have lake snow advisory's. Should even be upgraded to lake snow watches or warnings considering how cold the air will be and how warm the lakes are. Another thing will be high snow ratios that the NWS mentioned, 30:1 possibly. So getting snow totals of who knows 6+inches on the conservative side north of I90 and 104 should be common. Time will tell!

    PS. Lets go GIANTS!

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  2. Have to believe that some areas will get a great deal of LES. I say this since there has not been any LES this year. Usually threre is some in late November or at least by mid December. I have to believe that the lake waters are extremely warm and primed for a great deal of moisture with the cold and right wind direction. Time will tell. PS. Beware of the Cowboys

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  3. Only a few inches for what appears to be a 2-3 day event???? That seems low. Even 6 inches seems low considering the ratio.

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  4. My guess is that watches will go up SAturday night or early sunday only to be extended to a warning after that. 8-12+ north of the thruway considering the snow ration. That is my non-expert opinion.

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  5. THE LAST POST WAS WEATHERDAN

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  6. If the multiple bands stay strong and stable when they slide south of Lake Ontario starting Monday. Lake snows will really start to pile up. Orleans, Monroe, Wayne. And I mean REALLY pile up.. With a 25:1 or 30:1 ratio, enough said.

    GMENNNNNNNNN

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  7. Wow, it is going to be in the mid 40's by next Friday. Hopefully we will get enought snow early next so we can enjoy it next weekend before it all melts.

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  8. Unfortunately, it looks like one or two very inconvenient days (RGE rejoice) followed by a warm up perhaps to last into 2nd week Jan. Hope LES is minimal, but I doubt it. Anyway most should melt before next inconvenience.
    Been a great winter so far.

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  9. Yes, it will be a short-lived wintry blast, but it'll be a brutal one. It's hard to pinpoint this far out with the switching winds, but I wouldn't be totally shocked if somebody saw upwards of a foot through Tuesday night. Aside from the lake effect potential, we'll deal with bitter wind chills and blowing snow for a solid 24-36 hours. Maybe we'll be longing for that warm-up by the end of the week? Just thinking positively here :)

    Have a great New Year, everyone!

    - Stacey

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  10. Does anyone have an update about LES potential. It seems like the NWS is leaning to most of it going to the traditional snowbelts which means the city will get little?

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  11. What does this mean for us in the southertier..Wayland, Dansville area? Do we miss out?

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  12. wayland and dansville rarely get lake effect snow. think north of thruway or at the very most north of 5 and 20. south of that, snow showers and cold. one or two inches me thinks.

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  13. On sunday night and early MOnday the winds look to be West which will favor areas just east of the lakes like the tug hill. Later Monday an arctic boundry will drop South swicth the winds to NW bring that single band South and the it will change to Multiple bands. That is when Rochester will get snow. How much? Who knows.

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  14. They just posted lake effect snow watches south of lake Erie counties. I wonder when the NWS out of buffalo will put watches up for us.

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  15. for the less experienced, what is a snow ratio?

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  16. Again I am thinking this is going to be a strong LES set-up maybe I am crazy. The 850's look good, great low level moisture will be available with snow ratios 20:1 possibly. I think there will be WNW winds with the second low and extreme cold air over extremely warm waters. I do not know I am not an expert but think this is going to be high snow totals for some areas not sure about the city though.

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  17. Andrew, I would think a WNW wind would not be favorable for Rochester. That wind direction would favor eastern Monroe into Wayne countes.

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  18. High wind watch. Ugh. Bring on the snow!

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  19. Our local mets and NWS are saying the LES will be SW area of Rochester. Not sure anyone knows what will happen with LES. It is the hardest thing to predict but again we will have to wait for Scott because he is always good when predicting where the heaviest bands will set up.

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  20. I am surprised that they did not issue a LES watch for monroe and wayne counties

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  21. No matter what happens the temnps will be in the mid 40's by friday through next weekend. The snow we get will be gone quickly.

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  22. The lake effect will be coming from lake erie first, before the winds change direction with the artic front early next week. Thats why the lake snow watches are in effect for counties west currently. Im sure they will issue watches for monroe and wayne by tomorrow when we are closer to the time lake ontario snows will begin.

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  23. Thanks weatherdan why can't you just enjoy that we may get at least plowable snow. You have to focus on next weekend and yes again be negative. However you will not see it as being negative just stating reality. Who knows maybe the following weekend will be a storm do you need snow on the ground everyday? Stop it Mr. Negative!

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  24. Anonymous you are right our area should keep an eye on late Monday afternoon to Tuesday. That is when the NW winds kick in and bands will set up. Again potential for many areas to I believe get at least 6 inches of snow.

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  25. so since we are in a high wind watch....does that mean a lot of snow or low temps? does anyone know?

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  26. This is going to be one of those events where the forecasters are going to play it safe with lake effect snow advisories with 3-6" of snow. Either this low over achieves and produces way more or its a bust! It should be interesting!

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  27. Yes the only thing we do know is that there will be weather Moanday and Tuesday. Also, what ever that weather is there will be complaining by weatherdan. Happy New Year!

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  28. A BUST BUST BUST BUST no doubt.

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  29. ok thankssssss and knowing Rochester it will be a BIG BUSTTTTTTTT for sure:( where is all of the snow!!!!!!!!

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  30. You guys are too funny. I am excited about Tuesday- wednesday. Yes, I would like to see snow on the ground the whole winter like last year. Yes, I am frustrated that next weekend we will by near 50 once again, but I think that is the way this winter will go. Up and down. Yes, I am stating what the forecast will be, but you call it complaining. So when the METS tell you that next weekend will be in the 40's do you call that complaining or telling you reality. Holy cow!!!! Happy New year to all.

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  31. I guess this is really not going to be a big dealer for Rochester according to the Mets. Channel 13 states 2-5 inches by Wednesday. Channle 10 states a trace to 2 inches and channel 8 states only a few inches. I thought this would be bigger than that. Oh well.

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  32. Hi all,

    Mild & increasingly windy Sunday with potential for damaging wind gusts, as NWS states especially late Sunday through Monday morning. Lake snows will be starting off east ends of lakes Sunday night into Monday morning, but as reinforcing shot of cold air moves through later Monday PM lake snows will shift south off Ontario into Rochester area & W. Finger Lakes later in the day into Monday night. Later Monday night into Tuesday winds will become north-northwest which will favor a spray of lake snow, but with ample low level moisture & huge delta T's most will receive 2 to 6", with some getting more in the most persistent snows. Temps will be brutal. Stay tuned & Happy New Year's everyone!

    John

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  33. I guess it will not be a bigger deal for Rochester thought it would be but who knows. Stay tuned!

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  34. 2-6 inches. Who hoo. What will we do with it all.
    I'm sorry this is just getting ridiculous. That is not even advisory snowfall. I know I am complaining again. Sorry. I want to go cross country skiing and with temps in the 40's by weeks end that will go quickly.

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  35. I do not understand why counties bordering south of Lake Erie have wanrings up with 1-2 feet in the forecast on NW winds , but we will only get 2-6 on NW winds.

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  36. I also do not understand the high wind warning and lake snow warning for areas down there shouldnt that be a blizzard warning like up in MI. There will be sustained winds of over 35 mph or frequent gusts to there along with heavy snow. It will be blizzard conditions there.

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  37. Any updates for Rochester metro with the LES? Where is David?

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  38. NWS mentioned something about a quick burst of snow for everyone as one of these front drops across our area...any thoughts on that for potential accumulation? sems like all talk is on LES but they seemed to make mention of some snow due to a front. sounds like we may have got our hopes up a little too soon, seems as though the favored LES areas will prosper this time, as we are not in a favorable area, unless u live in north east wayne county or closer to batavia. Wish we were in line to get hammered with lots of ssnow for once!

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  39. I believe the winds could really be a concern and even more of a concern if it is snowing because visibility will be horrible. There could be winds up to 55-60 mph according to NWS?

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  40. This is a common occurrence for the mets to not mention much in the way of snow for our area! No single person or model can predict the connections upstream and therefore almost never get snow totals correct for the towns south of lake ontario! There are just way too many variables. And not getting my hopes up but the 0z has a bomb of a storm the beginning of next week.

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  41. Anyone else see on AccuNever (Joe Lundberg, I believe) that the Euro weeklies throughout January look identical to 2001-02 - a year with basically no winter?

    NAO and AO remain positive...strongly positive.

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  42. I was wondering if Scott still sees the signs for a pattern shift Jan 8-15...?

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  43. It is what it is guys. Might a sucky winter with a few storms mixed in... Who knows. Im done looking at models ect. When things start to happen ill chime in. Nothing we can do about it. For people who love winter, it sucks, simple as that.

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  44. Brandon in FarmingtonJanuary 1, 2012 at 1:25 PM

    Nobody is feeling worse about our lack of snow here than me. I am three years deep into these uneventful Rochester winters having moved from Traverse City, Michigan where they will receive 10 -20 inches of new snow form this along with 60mph winds. Real monster storms happen there often. Here, not so much.

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  45. Brandon, Farmington is not in a good lake effect snow area. I am 40 miles to the north of you and we get 2.5x as much snow. Not many large storms come through this area of NY in a typical winter, as I am sure you noticed (and read about here).

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  46. As a life long resident of this area (nearly 50) I think our winters are generally pretty tame. I just think we are conditioned to "think" our winters are harsh due the hype around annual snowfall totals, the media stories and the complainers that love to whine about all the snow. Think about the fact that only about 58% of our Christmases are white, when we are conditioned to think white Christmases are the norm.

    The unfortunate reality is that we only seem to get a decent sized snow storm (maybe 10" or more) every 2 or 3 years on average. I don't have the data, but that's what it seems. Even when we don't get any big storms we seem to easily get to 85" plus inches due to LES that often comes 1"-2" at a time, making our winters appear harsh and snowy even when they are not. The media loves to hype the snow (not Scott and team) and the complainers love to whine.

    I think the media hype and complaining about lots of snow has given us a bad national image that makes outsiders think this area is a tough place to live, when it clearly is not. The reality is that this region is highly desirable and liveable, especially for those that enjoy the seasonal changes. Even when we don't get a lot of snow in the metro, normally there is lots of snow close by, giving snow lovers lots of opportunity for fun. On the flip side our summers are normally very pleasant giving us lot of outside time in the summer.

    With that said, seriously it's frustrating weather right now. We are way over due for a good storm. It seems like we have had nothing the last couple of years.

    Snow baby, snow!
    Andy

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  47. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MONROE COUNTY!

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