Very Cold Start; More Seasonable End to Today
Written by John DiPasquale:
After a very cold start early this morning with wind chills in the single digits & temperatures in the teens, the thermometer will ultimately rise into the low 30s come early this evening. Also arriving later this afternoon & especially this evening will be some snow showers that could lay down a coating to an inch or two for most. This will not be a big deal, but may cause roads to get a little slick this evening. Temperatures will rise above freezing late tonight as the weakening clippers moves across the area.
On the clipper's heels will be another slightly strong storm that will produce primarily rain & milder temperatures come tomorrow afternoon into early Friday night. Late Friday night any leftover showers will likely mix with some snow for everyone, & possibly change to all snow over the high terrain where a slushy coating to an inch or two may accumulate late Friday night into Saturday morning. Most of us, though, will likely not see much of anything out of this due to temperatures being mainly above freezing right through Saturday.
Right now, New Year's Eve looks nice & quiet with temperatures initially backing off into the 20s, but then rising well into the 30s to low 40s by the time sunrise rolls around Sunday. Winds will blow hard on Sunday & push temps into the mid 40s for a midday high, but then a strong cold front will blow through & drop temps back into the 30s later in the day with maybe some flurries late.
Behind Sunday's cold front, the air will turn much colder Sunday night with significant lake snows developing east of the lakes. Winds should become more northerly later Monday & especially Monday night as a reinforcing shot of arctic air moves through. Coldest air of season will likely follow arctic front for Tuesday & Wednesday with more lake snows Tuesday & Tuesday night. Stay tuned for updates in the coming days.
Have a nice night everyone!
Northerly winds are not good for good lake snows in Rochester. That is not good news at all. We will have cold but no storms.
ReplyDeleteHoly sh$t are you tiring.
ReplyDeletewhat will the winds be for rochester...could this be favorable for our first TRUE lake effect snow around here!!
ReplyDeletei realize its still to far out..but for john or scotty...do lake effect advisory type snows seem reasonable with the artic front coming thru.. also just a curious weather fanatic..what does the wind flow have to affect rochester.. i read binghamton NWS AFD and they said it would be 270-280 wind flow and then turn more to 300-310..i didnt know if that wind would back the snow more to a northerly component..im so excited for this potential lake effect..becuz its looking more and more likely with both the GFS and Euro verifying on the artic intrusion..thoughts anyone..have a great wknd and new years!!
ReplyDeleteweatherdan the negative energy you are bringing to the blog may be hurting out storm potential. Like me you must become a new man and stay positive. The big one is coming at some point this winter plus big lake effect snows. Hang in there weatherdan good things come to those who wait.
ReplyDeleteI think LES favors the Rochester area when the winds are around 300-310, but I could be wrong!
ReplyDeleteIt's nice to at least have some hope...........for some snow. What will be will be only mother nature truly knows! :)
ReplyDeleteGuys, I am not complaining. I am giving fact. Mama Mia. A northerly wind, will not give us good lake effect. If you know weather you know that. I am not being negative. Do you want me to say that a Northerly wind will give us good lake effect? That would not be true. You guys know about fetch. Come on. We need more of a NW wind to give Rochester good squalls. Stop confusing negativity with fact. I want snow just as much as you do.
ReplyDeleteweatherdan they will be WNW and shifting at times jusy be patient and get your shovel out next Tues/Weds or plow so you can make some cheese.
ReplyDeleteNorth winds will also give LES just not as much as a WNW, NNW, or NE winds will give us
ReplyDeleteWHILE THE WIND DIRECTION IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE IN TERMS OF
ReplyDeleteFETCH...THE SHEAR INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY OUTWEIGH THIS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE INDUCED CAPE.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN ALOFT...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
MOISTURE...AND PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY FOR EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WHICH
ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. SNOW SHOULD BE VERY
FLUFFY...WITH 30:1 RATIOS A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THIS SAID...NOT ALL OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW FROM THIS PATTERN.
TYPICALLY...SE OF LAKE ONTARIO (WAYNE/OSWEGO/CAYUGA) AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL RECEIVE THE MOST SNOW IN THIS
PATTERN. HOWEVER...THIS ALSO BEARS WATCHING ALONG THE ENTIRE LAKE
ONTARIO SOUTHERN SHORES...INCLUDING NIAGARA...ORLEANS...AND MONROE
COUNTIES. BASED ON THIS...WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION IN THE HWO
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS...AND FOR BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILLS.
I think this is going to be one of the events where everyone gets some accumulation. However, there are definitely going to be some big totals, just depends where the bands decide to set up. All as I know is last year when we had all of the lake effect in December, they always counted the west side of the county out and we always ended up receiving hefty totals. I think everyone has a shot at seeing dome heavy snow!
ReplyDeleteSome Heavy Snow*
ReplyDeleteIt is disappointing that there is rarely a post from the news 8 team lately. I know Scott is on vacation but step other people.
ReplyDeleteYou guys are all correct. Winds are going to be shifting between the WNW/NW/NNW at times, which does not favor a blockbuster event for the city. We just can't get the same moisture with the short fetch over the lake, plus the strength of the wind will limit the amount of residence time over the lake. But as we know, those winds favor more "fingers" of lake effect, which will impact more of the viewing area. So, what we will get is less intense, but more widespread. I see a good, shovelable snow Sunday night/early Monday morning through Tuesday. Orleans Co may luck out (more snow) with an upstream connection from Georgian Bay. We're still 4 days away, but definitely get ready for REAL winter!
ReplyDelete-Stacey
I am confused. I thought the wind directions mentioned above give Rochester significant lake snows especially with a conncetion from Georgian bay.
ReplyDeleteThey do weatherdan... I think that anon is saying that we wont get Oswego type snowfalls but we can only get those on a NE flow but winds out of the WNW to NW usually give Rochester decent snowfall. If we can get into a snow band and sit in it we could see some significant snow totals.
ReplyDeleteI think the NWS will put up watches by Sunday. Do you guys agree?
ReplyDeleteThere is only one guy who really understands the ingrediants needed for good LES and that is Scott. And I am being serious not only with understanding storms he is great with the LES and how strong it will be and where it usually sets up. Thus, I believe he is on a well deserved vacation but I will wait until he looks at all the data and lets us know what he thinks hopefully on Sunday.
ReplyDeleteI believe based on my research it is a real good set-up for LES. The winds will NW, the 850's look good, shear looks minimal, and low level moisture should be good. All things needed for heavy LES. We will have to wait and see. I am not an expert just an opinion based on some factors.
ReplyDeleteWith the location of the city in relation to location of the lake, it's difficult to get a really good, intense single band funneling into Rochester. That's more Wayne/Oswego/Syracuse area off of a Northwest wind. We get the more less intense multi-bands setting up off of a NW/NNW wind into Rochester. Whatever the Weather Service decides to issue (winter storm watch, lake effect snow watch, etc., I suspect they should be posted by Sunday afternoon or evening, if needed. We all know lake effect is finicky, so stay tuned. But I think things look good for a good ol' snow!
ReplyDelete- Stacey
The NWS has already put out a hazardous weather outlook for the period Sunday night through Tuesday. It looks to get very interesting around here. High winds and heavy snow. We will see, but finally something to talk about.
ReplyDeleteThey have put in blowing snow/white out conditions into the grids this morning.
ReplyDeleteGiddy up!
ReplyDeleteI'm wondering if this cold blast next week is just a tease? i saw a temperaure of 39 late next week. is the cold going to be here to stay or are we in for another roller coaster ride of cold then warm? wish mother nature could make up her mind. the constant temperature changes have given me numerous colds already this season!
ReplyDeleteYeah, I saw that as well. It looks like we will warm up by late next week.
ReplyDeleteWondering where David has been and what does he think about LES potential?
ReplyDeleteHi All! Lake snows will become an issue early next week. At first, they will be off the east ends of lakes with more of a west wind Sunday night. However, during the day Monday the first of two reinforcing shots of cold air will move through, which will shift the winds into more of a northwest direction sending the lake snows into the Greater Rochester area come Monday afternoon & night. Late Monday night/early Tuesday the last reinforcing shot of arctic air will swing through shifting winds into more of a northerly direction. Yes, the fetch will not be great, but the extreme instability with the very cold air rushing over the unusually warm lake (low 40s) and we should have a nice spray of flurries & squalls. As Stacey mentioned, this will not be a monster event like they get in Buffalo on a Southwest wind, or Oswego on a west or just very slightly north of west wind, it should produce several inches in many spots due to the more northerly component, very cold air & good amount of low level moisture. As Stacey, & some others have said, I would be shocked if at least lake snow advisories were not posted for much of the area by day's end Sunday for the Monday through Tuesday/Tuesday night time frame. Now with that all said, this "event" is still 2.5 to 3 days out, so it could still change. Stay tuned tonight & into the weekend, as Stacey, Scott & I will have the latest. Looks like fun though!:-) Have a great day, weekend & New Year's everyone!
ReplyDeleteBest,
John