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Monday, December 26

Quiet & Mild into Tuesday, but...



Written by John DiPasquale:


High & dry for the rest of today with breaks of sun expected to develop thanks to high pressure building in from the West. Tonight through tomorrow morning will be uneventful too with moderating temperatures later tonight into our Tuesday morning. Temperatures will peak out around 40 today, & then briefly drop back into the 30 to 35 degree range early tonight before rising to around 40 late tonight compliments of a southerly flow.


Tomorrow will be breezy & mild with a midday high in the mid 40s, before dropping off to around 40 by days end, as some showers will begin developing tomorrow afternoon. A strong cold front will get pulled through tomorrow night by the developing storm moving nearby. Once the storm yanks the cold front through tomorrow night, the rain will mix with & should quickly change to snow at first over the high terrain & then for everyone. Roads will likely slicken up & late Tuesday night into Wednesday, as the storm snow transitions to a brief period of lake snows on Wednesday. Temperatures will plummet through the 30s & into the 20s Wednesday morning with a gusty northwest wind. At this point, depending on exactly when the changeover occurs, it appears a good 1 to 4 or 2 to 5" accumulation for all seems to be in store for much of the area, with maybe even 6 or 7 inches in the hills South of Thruway, & in the most persistent lake snows by the time it all comes to an end later Wednesday afternoon. Stay tuned for updates from the News 8 Weather Center throughout the 24 to 36 hours. Yes, at the very least, this will probably prevent us from breaking the least amount of snow ever to fall in December in Rochester. Right now we have had 2.2", & the all-time record low is 2.6". This will likely be mother nature's little gift to all you snow lovers out there. It's likely not going to be big, but at least it will be something.



Happy Holidays to all!


34 comments:

  1. John, Do you think we can see those 6-7inch totals north of 104 with some lake enhancement?

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  2. Hey Bitter Kodak Retiree - how do you like that forecast??

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  3. John, can you explain the ranges. You have 1-4 or 2-5 which are not much different from each other. Who gets the 1 and who gets the 5? Would you not just say 2-4? Thanks

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  4. HWO from NWS

    THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE AT
    LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

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  5. What does several mean 2? Or could that mean 4 or 6 or who knows. Help me out please.

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  6. I think we have a shot to be in the jackpot zone for snow accumulations. I think this low is going to go right over CNY and our change over to snow will be quick. I am just stating my opinion. I go with a 4-8 accumulation range. Interested in what Scott thinks. Thanks

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  7. I agree with Andrew on this one... I think Scott had too much eggnog and is sleeping one off. haha

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  8. 12z GFS has the storm making love to us.

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  9. Our local mets have 1 to 2 inches so Andrew and David you guys are way off base with your amount. Do not just make up fly by night totals please.

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  10. Just giving an opinion based on my limited knowledge of looking at the models and data. Sorry weatherwatcher we can not have an opinion?

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  11. FROM THE NWS:

    A WINTER STORM WATCH WAS CONSIDERED...BUT ULTIMATELY CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE HEADLINE. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT THE HEADLINE...AND WITH THE SEVERAL CLOSE CALLS WITH THIS SYSTEM...FROM THE MARGINALLY COLD AIR MASS AT THE ONSET...TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SNOW SHOWERS...TO THE POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AT THE END. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AND CONTINUE A MENTION IN THE HWO. FOR THOSE INTERESTED IN SNOW AMOUNTS...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND E-SE OF LAKE ONTARIO...ROUGHLY INCLUDING WAYNE/N CAYUGA/OSWEGO/JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WHERE 4 INCHES OR GREATER OF SNOW ARE LIKELY. DEPENDING ON HOW SEVERAL FACTORS WORK OUT...COULD SEE AMOUNTS TO 8 INCHES IN SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS...HOWEVER AMOUNTS THIS HIGH ARE ONLY A POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME.

    THYE TALK ABOUT LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN WAYNE COUNTY EAST, BUT NOT MONROE COUNTY. i WOULD THINK MONROE COUNTY WOULD RCIVE LAKE ENHANCMENT AS WELL.

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  12. Here we go again. People cannot have an opinion without being scrutinized. People have a right to their opinion Weatherwatcher. Come on. Lets stop with this constant nastiness.

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  13. The National Weather Service makes a habit of simply broad brushing lake effect snow and lake enhanced snow to Wayne county eastward, while neglecting to properly forecast the potential for lake effect farther west including Orleans and Monroe county. Scott has mentioned this in years past, as well. If you read that whole forecast discussion, you'll figure out that the National Weather Service doesn't really know what is going to happen. The NWS mets live in Buffalo, they know every little detail about lake effect off Erie, but like to just broad brush lake Ontario snow. I'd take what they say with a grain of salt.

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  14. I think Scott is on vacation and he should enjoy his time this is a minor deal. Enjoy time with your family Scott you will be back next week when we get the big blizzard.

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  15. Anyone know what the latest 18GFS showed?

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  16. 18gfs same, changes. Weatherwatcher, go watch tv then and get outa here.

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  17. Channel 10 states it will be mostly rain changing to a very brief period of snow with very liitle accumulation.

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  18. The name of the game is how fast the Low strengthens and brings that cold air down. Time will tell....

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  19. I believe the highest totals will be in the higher elevations through the Finger Lakes as the changeover to snow will happen sooner. That being said, I see all of us seeing a few inches. Some lake enhancement happens early Wednesday off of a northerly wind, which may bring another few fluffy inches. But, I think this will be more of a "blustery and cold" event than a snow event as we fall from the low and mid 20s into the teens on Wednesday, along with a stiff breeze.

    - Stacey

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  20. David any updates from the models?

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  21. Oh well it had to end some time. So close to the record too.
    But wait---the 14 day is predicting well above normal temps---so the white nuisance should be gone pretty quick--let's hope. Still looking forward to golf in Jan.

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  22. I do not agree that the 14 day is predicting well above normal temperatures. I think this storm is going to help change the pattern a bit. As for this storm I still think we will be the bullseye for the most snow and will get 4-8 inches when all is said and done including LES.

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  23. It is interesting that the the NWS has no snow accumulation for us if you look at their forecast for Rochester, but there is a Lake effect snow watch for areas South of Lake Erie. I would think we would have the same fate as them in regards to snow. I agree with Andrew. I think we will see more than 1-3 inches. The same dynamics will be over lake Ontario as will be Lake Erie. The Buffalo NWS needs to wake up I think.

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  24. I just read the BUffalo NWS and they are now saying that the storm is moving more Westward which will delay the changeover and decrease snow amounts drastically. If this happens we will be luck to see an inch. They still do not know.

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  25. West indeed.... mostly rain looks like. maybe few inches on backside. sucks

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  26. YEP, NOT LOOKING GOOD AT ALL. HOW COME THE MODELS NEVER TREND WESTWARD WHEN IT IS A HUGE EAST COAST STORM. WE CANNOT EVEN GET THESE LITTLE ONES TO GO IN A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR US. I THINK WE WILL WAKE UP TO GREEN TOMORROW.

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  27. I dunno I'm with News 8 I think we get an inch to a few inches in the overnight hours into Wed morning. The changeover will take a little bit but it looks to happen.

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  28. NBD- WHOOO HOO AND INCH OR 2

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  29. Love the comments from some of you (Andrew). Posts (if that is what you call the constant complaining of some) from Negative Nancys are flat out annoying.

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  30. I GUESS I DO NOT UNDERTSAND WHY SAYING WHAT IS REALITY IS BEING NEGATIVE. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE 1-2 INCHES AND THAT IS NOT A BIG DEAL. I AM NOT BEING NEGATIVE JUST BEING REALISTIC.

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  31. Calm down everyone. This is only December 27th. If we want to be realistic keep in mind that most of our worst winter weather typically doesn’t happen until late January and February. Besides in most winters past that have started with such meager amounts of snow we still received over 60 inches in total. To put that in perspective we should see about 30 inches for each of the up coming months. I would say we still have some snowy times ahead!!

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  32. agreed.... I am still hanging onto this storm. 25-65inches tonight! haha

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  33. Hi everyone,

    I don't think, as Stacey mentioned above, we will pick more than 1 to 4" for most out of this late tonight thru tomorrow due to changeover not occuring until late. Hi terrain will see a bit more thanks to an earlier change to snow this evening. We will have some limited lake snows tomorrow, which will slowly diminish later in the afternoon & early evening as drier air shuts it down. I just don't see any big snows out of this storm with the new data that I've looked at. Not turning cold fast enough to support it. More small snows on the way over the next several days, though. Defnitely a more wintry, colder pattern evolving over the next several days, especially heading into 2012! Stay tuned.

    John

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  34. I don't see why many have to be so negative. I don't recall anyone saying this "storm" and I use the term "storm" loosely was ever going to be much of anything, regardless of track variation.

    On the bright side, we barely got any rain today. It's already changing to snow in BUF. ROC still hasn't hit 40 degree's, and it was supposed to be in low 40's today, and temps are starting to fall.

    For snow lovers it should be great news that everyone should have some white on the ground. It's going to look a lot more like winter than it has so far. We are headed in the right direction. It will be cold enough for ski resorts to make snow! I will take what I can, and enjoy what we get.

    Andy

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