Get your daily dose of weather news

with Scott Hetsko, Chief Meteorologist

RSS FEED SUBSCRIBE BY EMAIL

Our weather blog brings you expert perspective on the latest weather news. Our weather experts share the inside scoop with blog entries from the studio and from the field. Check out the latest weather news and storm coverage in our most recent blog entries.

Wednesday, December 21

Still Some Hope...A Little Hope!

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

After being on the warm side of two systems this week with just rain for us, we may get our shot of at least a little of the white stuff just in time for the first day of winter!

We may find ourselves close enough to a coastal low (and on the cold side) to bring us a minor accumulation of snow Thursday night and into Friday. We are not talking about a blockbuster event, or even a mentionable event at this point, but at least it's something!

Right now it looks like the Finger Lakes region may see the most snow, with a few inches of accumulation by Friday morning, and amounts diminishing as you head west toward Buffalo.

After that, another little piece of energy zooms in on Saturday, with a few more snow showers. Temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be seasonably cold, as we turn the page from Fall to Winter at 12:30 Thursday morning.

Still, it looks as though December 2011 will go down as one of the least snowiest Decembers in history here in Rochester. Don't worry though, we've still got a lot of winter to go!

19 comments:

  1. Thanks Stacey, I still think it is amazing that these storms continue to go either North and West or to far South and East. I jsut do not understand why we cannot get a storm to go a favorable track for us. It does not make sense to me. It is like we have a HIGH pressure bubble over us the deflects storms away.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Stacey I'm with you on this one and I'm hoping to still see some of that white on Christmas day...it's crunch time now. Too bad my Dec. snowfall prediction is all but shot - I thought 9in. was a decent estimate a few weeks ago.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Don't need a very big shift on the NAM to get an inch or two..60 miles maybe?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Why is it that the storm, via the Nam, is coming right at us and then veers to the right and misses us???

    ReplyDelete
  5. I don't think I see what you're seeing weatherdan...but the jet has been strong west/east and there is high pressure sitting up above us over Canada. Any thoughts News 8?

    ReplyDelete
  6. The long range GFS looks as though the stubborn southeastern ridge is going to start to break down by the 3rd or 4th of January. Now obviously this is way too far away to be certain, but at least there is a sign of old winter somewhere down the road! I think it's going to take one more big system that cuts to our west that will finally change this pattern but we will just have to wait and see.

    ReplyDelete
  7. That's my kind of talk Weatherguy! Looking over the horizon trying to see what's coming. I believe we have the very beginning stage of a stratospheric warming going on too. If it comes to fruition, and becomes a true warming event, it could possibly change things up right around the time Scott was thinking. Little more hurry up and wait.. weather action in slow motion. Lol.

    ReplyDelete
  8. This is copied from the previous blog thread:

    "weatherdan said...
    I hear ya Andrew. You cannot give your opinion on this blog without being scrutinized. That has to change."

    NO, it does not have to change, weatherdan. This is a blog setup by professional meteorologists who have a degree in the science. If incorrect or hasty information and / or predictions are thrown out there, the true scientists absolutely have the right to correct and or criticize how you came to the conclusions that you did. It's as simple as that. If this were a blog set up by amaetures to just play around with weather forecasting, then I'd understand you saying that it "has to change". But it's not. You're welcome on this blog and I appreciate your input. But you have to accept criticism by the real scientists. It's their job to backup what they say by relevant evidence. Throwing "toy forecasting" out there based on every flip flop of a computer model run just clutters the blog with misinformation.

    David

    ReplyDelete
  9. Siberia is now REALLY getting very cold and snowy. That is a good sign for a significant pattern change around here sometime between JAN 10-15. Winter will flip sometime around then I suspect.

    Scott

    ReplyDelete
  10. Boy if we can get to almost the middle of January before "real" winter arrives, that should make for a very short winter, unless of course it's still snowing in May.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Hi David,

    That is not what I meant. I mean some people throw out nasty comments because of opinions people have. That is what needs to stop.

    ReplyDelete
  12. That's great news Scott. Siberia seems to be the key for the cross polar flow!

    ReplyDelete
  13. Sal,
    Even if it takes that long to get some cold and snow, that does necessarily mean it will be a short winter! The last three Marches have a combined 16.5" of snow, 15.1" of which fell last March alone. If winter starts late, it can also end late. For example, go back ten or so ago and look at March of 2000-2001, where 41.4" of snow fell! That makes up for a lost December and then some!
    Also, if this December ends up being the least snowiest on record, that would kind of cool due to the fact that last year was the snowiest December on record! But what else can you expect, after all, we are talking about Rochester weather!

    ReplyDelete
  14. Snowfan, wasn't the snow cover in Siberia slightly above normal around the middle of November? And I was also reading an article on how 80% of the time the solar activity was below average in January, there was almost always some sort of Greenland block. Any thoughts on this anyone?

    ReplyDelete
  15. I remember the non-winter of 2001-02. The late winter and spring that followed was cold, rainy and miserable. Arctic cold air is gonna make it down here sooner...or later.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Thanks! Needed that little glimmer of hope!

    ReplyDelete
  17. So far, so good........

    ReplyDelete
  18. scott i made t home just in time to see your forecast for the winter og 11 and 12. I always brag about how accurate youare. Man was i wrong. i guess i will lister to 9 from now on.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Type much, Anonymous? Doing a little bit of "drinking while typing" were ya? You do know that it's not even January yet, right? Or maybe you don't know what month it is...And really? Channel 9? YNN? That's got to be the funniest part of your post. Have some coffee!

    ReplyDelete

Blog Archive