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Sunday, December 18

Will We Be Dreaming of a White Christmas?



Written by: Stacey Pensgen


With Christmas day just a week away now, it is starting to become more clear whether it'll be a white one, or a green one.


We are still watching a few weak storms set to move through this week. While we all know we can't completely trust the models, they have been trending more northerly and westerly, keeping us on the warmer side, which means rain. With temperatures on Monday in the mid 40s, we'll see just a few scattered showers out ahead of a cold front. Once the front moves through, there won't be much moisture left, therefore no accumulating snow.


Another storm moves in on Wednesday, with the track of this one essentially right over us, or just to our north and west. Again, we will be in the mid 40s, with rain in the forecast. After that, we turn colder into the end of the week and the weekend, but we'll quiet things down in regards to storms.


We stand at 2.1" of snow on the season, which is now 16.8" below average. With two weeks left in the month, one of which we likely will see little (if any) snow, December 2011 could wind up being a major bust in the snow department!

22 comments:

  1. Even the new Andrew is getting frustrated. There are no storms and no cold air in sight for us. Maybe the old Andrew needs to come back at least we got some snow last winter.

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  2. I hear ya Andrew. I wonder what Our least snowiest winter ever was. We might beat that. I think it is like 35 inches or something. Not sure. According to the NWS January might be the same as Decemeber and November.

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  3. Great video!

    http://www.nynjpaweather.com/2011/12/18/long-range-video-discussion-for-december-18-2011/

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  4. I definitely am still thinking we have a decent chance for snow on Christmas. Staying positive but also looking at the data and it's still up in the air but a more easterly track is looking possible. I'd be happy with even a dusting at this point. There is hope!

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  5. I see that Jo-sef on the GFS. It has a weak system re-developing on the coast leaving us on the cold side for Christmas Eve and day.

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  6. So it is trending colder? I see most of the forecasts (TV and NOAA) all have snow for us Fri and Sat. I think just the mention of the old Andrew helped.

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  7. There is what looks like a stocking over Mexico on the 00z GFS 850 mb temps ensembles map for the 24th.. I think that means it's going to snow. Or it means I should stick to my day job.

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  8. IT DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE AT ALL, BUT I WILL TAKE ANYTHING.

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  9. Weatherdan it may be more impressive than you think. Just have to keep an eye on it the next few model runs.Maybe the negative Andrew needs to come back? Just kidding!

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  10. Maybe we will get a Christmas miracle Andrew. You did say the last few weeks to watch Christmas Eve and day.

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  11. To be honest weatherdan it is going to have to be a Christmas miracle for it to come together. Need that cold air from Canada to come down. We have to wait until Wednesdays models to see what happens. But the new Andrew has been tracking this for a bit and is going to stay positive.

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  12. THE NWS HAS CAUGHT ON TO THE IDEA:

    AS FOR CHRISTMAS WEEKEND...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
    MODEL DISAGREEMENT. THE GGEM IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SOME PREVIOUS
    MODEL RUNS IN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH
    WOULD KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD. HOWEVER...THE
    00Z EURO AND GFS FORECAST A DEEPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO
    VALLEY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
    MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROF EXTENDING BACK TO
    WESTERN NEW YORK. IF THIS WAS TO PLAY OUT...IT WOULD INDEED BRING A
    CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. AT THIS
    FAR OUT...EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN THE MODELS...BUT DO CARRY A
    CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO THE 00Z GFS/EUROPEAN
    SOLUTIONS.

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  13. Does the GGEM ever verify.... Answer. Nope

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  14. I agree with David that is why the models to keep an eye on are the EURO and GFS the next couple runs. If they come to agreement we could get a moderate snowfall I believe but I am no expert.

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  15. I HOPE IT DOES NOT GO TO FAR EAST, BUT EVEN THE ALBANY NWS IS TALKING ABOUT A MODERATE SNOW EVENT FOR THEM WITH THE HEAVIEST SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

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  16. The next couple days are going to be interesting model wise and I hope we finally have something go our way! I also think models are over doing the temperatures by the end of the week too. I have a feeling its going to turn out to be colder than what its forecasting, but that's just my two cents!

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  17. Do not want to turn back into negative Andrew but the EURO has backed off a strong storm and more east as usual we will get very little i am afraid.

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  18. Not surprising Andrew. We are all used to it now. Storms going to far South and East or North and West.

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  19. Models will go back and forth. too early to tell

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  20. In my opinion, we have 2 more runs of the Euro before this gets into its "wheelhouse" of accuracy. My snowmobile won't be coming out of storage yet either way.

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  21. It is definitely too early to say "we will"...

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  22. Yes I agree just had a flashback moment. I think things will not be decided until Wednesday. I have been saying to watch this time frame since last week. There are two lows that I hope form as one and the track is favorable for us. We will have to wait and see.

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