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Monday, January 2

LAKE SNOW GETS GOING LATER EVENING

Written By: Scott Hetsko

No real change in our expectation of lake effect snow tonight and Tuesday morning. 850 temps will fall below -20 overnight which should really get the lake excited. 14" will be the exception, not the rule!

129 comments:

  1. This is no big deal like everyone including Scott was making it out to be last night. Most will see 4 inches by tomorrow night and that is a joke. Even noaa has lowered the totals and the hype as usual will lead to nothing oh well it will be a long winter if you are relying on LES as an "event"

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  2. scott what time do you see the good lake snows falling this evening?!!?

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  3. here we go again - lake effect snow isn't real snow - - "this is no big deal"
    - weatherdan's panties are already in a bunch. Bitter Kodak guy is happy that the snow lovers are mad. Holy crap - the majority of the JA's on this blog think they know more than the meteorologists.... I think Channel 8 needs to have a psychologist monitoring this blog.

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  4. hey Scott how much to do expect the Brighton area to get? and any school closings? and i have heard that there could be whiteout conditions Tuesday morning can you confirm that?

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  5. Some very light lake snows are beginning to develop just offshore north of Monroe county...we need to watch this for the next half hour to 45 minutes to see if it keeps developing

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  6. I think my panties are feeling just fine thank you. Although this is NOT going to be a a big deal I am very happy it is going to finally snow. I am very thankful for that. Still looking forward to that first synoptic snowstorm whenever that will happen. Enjoy the snow.

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  7. Ok... everyone look now at radar... the band is developing right in the middle of the lake

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  8. Yup, its good to have some common sense like Charles around here...

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  9. Scott how come the 8-14 inches covers a bigger range on the icon above and when you showed this on tv Orleans was barley in the range and none of Ontario was in this range.

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  10. Why is the lake snow going to shut off so quickly tomorrow?

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  11. the lake band that was off of georges bay has now reached lake ontario

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  12. Scott,
    I was trying to find some data on the top 10 biggest snow storms for ROC, but it's tough to find. Wondering if you have that data or could point me in the right direction?

    Also, how often do we have major snow events with more than say 10+"? It just doesn't seem we get those often, maybe every 2 or 3 years?

    Thanks for all you do on this blog.
    Andy

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  13. There is a chance of thundersnow over in wayne county tonight

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

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  14. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  15. If there is anyone on from sodus I would like to know if it is snowing there yet radar out of watertown shows snow developing along the south shore of lake ontario

    http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=tyx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

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  16. hey charles, i live in ontario too man (lincoln rd) i see that georgian bay connecting on radar getting more aligned as we speak..personally how much you think we will get man being our location is similar??

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  17. I do know one major thing about Ontario and that is that once it starts snowing it usually does not stop in ontario and many times we get more then anywhere else in the area. I am thinking at least 12 inches there but then again I could be wrong... right now I am located in webster since my house burned down so I am going to miss all of the "bonus snow" that I call it

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  18. Charles - I live on Lake Road in the Point - currently NOT snowing. It came down hard for about 20 mins around 5:30.

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  19. looking at the radar it really looks like the lake band is getting going over far NE wayne county... I think we should see it fill in along all of the lake shore over the next hour

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  20. webster still looks reall good snow wise though man..ohh see you were up more towards the lake..im 2 miles south of Rt. 104 in the hamlin of lincoln..closer to walworth.. charles what is your take on the snow ratio? 30:1 perhaps..and also... i notice during lake effect..the radar tends to overshoot lake effect clouds so it doesnt show the moisture on the radar..you think that will be the case this go around??

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  21. lake snow is always that way with the overshooting radar tops... if you see any strong returns (yellow or stronger) you know its really snowing in that area... I lived south of rt 104 too on slocum.

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  22. yes that Georgein Bay connection is really filling in over lake ontario now!!

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  23. eastern monroe and western/central wayne county look to be the sweet spot..from georgian bay

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  24. yeah I think Webster to Williamson will have over 12 inches

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  25. yea good point w the overshooting..i just suspect that this go around will be a little differnt in that we just might be able to track the radar if that georgian bay gets connected..kinda like the stronger returns as to which you were referring to!! the calm before the storm man.. i cant wait

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  26. we have a cell developing straight north of webster that is already at 28.5 dbz

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  27. I wish that the radar was not in buffalo but in KROC because it would still reach buffalo area AND it would reach over here

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  28. I agree on the connection it looks to be forming up into something solid. Just waiting for some action in the metro area now, shouldn't be too long I hope.

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  29. Charles if you got a minute my man...go to the lake effect archives thru the nws..and click on the year 1999-2000...then click on lake storm "chesnut"..the snowmap on that storm shows striking similarities to the position of where the heavy snow will set to this upcoming event in a few hours i feel like...your thoughts man??

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  30. The snowmap is almost identical to Scott's forecast but I wouldn't get too excited for a repeat of that type of storm. Still, this will be fun to watch.

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  31. This is the storm that I am reminded of for this storm....

    http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/buf/lakeffect/lake9900/e/storme.html

    I am looking at lake ontario totals only not the lake erie ones

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  32. *lake Storm ESkimo..thats ironice cuz the storm i meant to say..idk why i said chesnut..cuz i was prolli looking at that storm too...but anyways yea it does show similarities..except upon reading up on that storm..it said it had pre-synoptic snow..that converted to lake effect..where as this one is just lake effect

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  33. that king city radar charles is the bomb..it really shows the lake effect..is that your go to radar that you look at..or are there even better ones out there!! i got my popcorn ready..and my front porch lights on just awaiting the first flakes from a true lake enhanced snow

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  34. There is not any better one that I have found let me check though

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  35. :) cool man!! anything yet charles in webster?

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  36. not 10 minutes ago when I walked outside

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  37. according to radar it shows a good cell developing over ontario

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  38. What Radar you using Charles?

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  39. i see that as well charles..but ontario covers a large area..like i said im just south of 104..that snow band..looks like it is hugging the lake..so prolli snowing now up near ginna nuclear power plant i would imagine..you think that band will shift south..the winds are more wnw or nw now?

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  40. I think more important then the band shifting south it will fill in to be a solid green band soon

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  41. you think man?? i think you might be right...we are right on the cusp of the radar lighting up:)

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  42. hopefully the wind is kept to a minimum..so i can be out there all night tonight..getting accurate snow total readings

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  43. how awesome would that be if the band settled just a litle more south to cover webster and ontario...and areas a couple miles south of route 104..and just stayed there for a couple hours:)

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  44. Nothing happening here in North Hilton

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  45. has it..awesome man...should just be a matter of a few minutes to hit here..im prolli like 5 miles southeast of ya..soo is it coming down at a good clip?

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  46. not too heavy yet... still quite light

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  47. Snowing light to moderately right now in SP. Radar shows fairly intense band over us, but the grass is still not covered.

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  48. I am seeing the band really develop on the west side of the city

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  49. yea i see that too..im a little concerned that the west side might be getting a little more..with the wind flow

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  50. Georgein Bay connection is going to setup over west and central orleans county diviving into southwestern monroe.Lake Ontario band setsup over east and cental wayne county.North central monroe including, hamlin, hilton, greece, WE MISS AGAIN. Disapointed hamlin snow plow driver.

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  51. Just wait I think that the entire band will be stronger... it will affect north hamlin .... maybe not 12 inches but you will still get snow

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  52. haha officially SNOWING NOW ON LINCOLN ROAD. (ONTARIO,NY)

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  53. Light snow North Hilton, Radar is filling in minute by minute.

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  54. I live 2 miles from lake ontario in easern hamlin. LES will miss us more often than not.We will be lucky to get 2 inchs. Strong NW flow not favorable. We need more WNW and much weeker winds to keep band on lake shore. Current setup drops LES band to fast to the south. Hamlin Snow Plow Driver

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  55. National Weather Service (posted by Charles Wachal)January 2, 2012 at 7:54 PM

    ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS EVENING...

    A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED LAKE BAND HAS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
    HAS BECOME ORIENTED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM
    HAMLIN BEACH INTO NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND
    OSWEGO COUNTY...SNOWFALL RATES ARE RAPIDLY APPROACHING AN INCH
    PER HOUR WITHIN THIS BAND...EXPECT THIS BAND TO CONTINUE ACROSS
    THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
    HOUR THROUGH 9 PM.

    THE COMBINATION OF PERIODIC WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND SNOW COVERED
    ROADS ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MAKE FOR EXTREMELY
    TREACHEROUS CONDITIONS. ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR
    DESTINATION.

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  56. Snow has covered the driveway now here in webster

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  57. Hamlin Plow DriverJanuary 2, 2012 at 8:00 PM

    It will shift south of hamlin into clarkson and brokport by 9:30 need to be on Rt 31 for this event. 2 inchs is all we will se in north hamlin.

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  58. Hamlin Plow DriverJanuary 2, 2012 at 8:10 PM

    Scott,yesterday your map had most of orleans county involved in heavy snowfall. Why the change of heart. I feel they are always a good bet, towns like Albion, and Holley, to get big totals, with strong nw flow. Geogrein bay connection ussualy sets up west of Roc without prolonged WNW flow over ontario.

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  59. Snow has come completely to a stop in SP. Less than 1" on ground.

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  60. Looks like the band is really blowing up on westside....

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  61. Anyone else see the Georgian Bay connection starting form over the Lake? Wonder where that will end up.

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  62. Hamlin Slow Plow DriverJanuary 2, 2012 at 8:27 PM

    Scott,it always seems I live to close to the lake(under 2 miles) to get the big snow totals. I've noticed most LES events take place within a few miles each way of Rt104. I would say the biggest totals come in between 5 and 15 miles from the lake and not on the lake shore. Is this so and why.

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  63. Hamlin Plow driver - Yes it is true out here. North Rose often gets more snow than we do in Sodus Pt. North Rose is one mile south of 104 and 6 miles south of the Lake. I grew up on the lakeshore in Greece and the Ridge Rd area almost always had more snow than we did. I believe the reason is due to how fast the moisture is coming ashore causes the snow to blow right over lakeshore communities and drop it inland. Another reason is because the upslope of the land as you head inland increases the rate of snowfall. Even taller buildings can increase the upslope effect.

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  64. Hamlin Plow DriverJanuary 2, 2012 at 8:47 PM

    Thanks Chris, luckly i get to plow all over the town of hamlin otherwise i wouldn't see much snow. Gergein Bay connection might not stop in orleans county. It might set up shop over Genese county. I dont like when they get ontario LES, they get enough off of erie.

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  65. Wheres Scott with some updates?

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  66. im getting little nervous about the snow

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  67. Get ready for multiple band lake effect upper bay conection passed way to fast. I believe snowfall totals will reflect this. 2 inch totals for most some lucky locations maybe 4 overnight. I cant see many in our area with 8. Just an opionion of a local highway worker.Scott have your thoughts changed.

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  68. My thoughts have changed for sure...

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  69. THE WHOLE THING IS A BUST NOT EVEN AN INCH ON THE EAST SIDE AREAS PITTSFORD,BRIGHTON,FAIRPORT AND PENFIELD. THOUGHT THESE TOWNS AND THE CITY WOULD GET HIT. LES A JOKE TO EVEN WATCH.

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  70. It is not even cold and windy out. This is called an arctic front that came through?

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  71. I am not sure what is happening but starting a bit now. I thougt this would be a great set-up for areas north of the thruway to get good LES. The ratios are high and the elements are there. Have to wait and see wondering what Scott is thinking he does a great job calling and seeing other the factors that bring LES.

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  72. Hamlin Plow DriverJanuary 2, 2012 at 9:34 PM

    I would NEVER call a lake effect snowfall forecast a bust. It is IMPOSIBLE to be able to forecast snow totals for lake events. To many parameters. The temps are falling and the winds were suppose to lessen as the low pulls further away.Scott does an excellent job.

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  73. Hamlin Plow DriverJanuary 2, 2012 at 9:42 PM

    Scott, Is the NW flow over ontario to strong. The air wont have much time to collect moisture without an upper connection. If it were a weaker flow would we see better developement of multiband LES. PS,Please dont leave us hanging.

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  74. Yes I think suspicions here on the blog are correct. I'm lowering my snowfall amounts by about half in most persistent areas. 4-8 MAX, 2-4 near I-90 if that. Too much dry air and I don't like the fact that we don't have much cyclonic curvature in the neighborhood. This snow will be HIGHLY localized.

    Scott

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  75. LES is always localized and rarely gives the city much. The awesome winter continues lets just get to spring asap.

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  76. Plow Driver Of HamlinJanuary 2, 2012 at 9:54 PM

    Scott cyclonic curvature would hold the upper bay connection in our area longer,is that correct. Is the retreating low to far to keep the curvature, which was in effect earlier with the west wind over lake ontario.

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  77. You can't call LES a bust too many things to factor into a forecast

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  78. Where is WeatherDan? Hes my new hero!

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  79. Not surprised its a bust. Too bad.

    At least we got most of winter to go so we have lots of time for snow.
    Andy

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  80. I wouldn't be surprised if we get no snow.. Setup looks terrible. Look for warnings to be canceled.

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  81. The only winner tonight will be retired Kodak worker. Hopefully all of us snowlovers will win one soon. WE NEED SOME SNOW.

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  82. Does it really surprise anyone that this is a bust? It seems that a high percentage of LES predictions are wrong. Then BAM when its not predicted we get dumped on. It just seems to go that way. :(

    At least the good news is we got cold weather and struggling ski resorts can make snow.

    Andy

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  83. Just started snowing in Geneva, ground has a coating in less than 5 minutes, I hope this keeps up and its done by 3am. Then another 3-4" later on in the day. That would be bi-winning

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  84. The Forecast is not a bust, just lower totals more localized. I am still holding onto earlier thought of heaviest snowfall in central Orleans,Southwest monroe and eastern wayne county. WATCH THE RADAR

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  85. scott, you are sooo right w/ residence time. the north communities hardly ever get substantial LES when the winds are heavy. I also noticed what you did re: n. orleans. it looks as if the NW flow is starting to create some NW to SE les streamers. time will tell. I keep telling people that monroe county probably has the most difficult wx to forecast in the entire country. Buf is way easier. not to mention we don't even have good radar coverage w/ the lite snow.

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  86. Well plow man, I hope I'm wrong, but even if more localized as you say, it leaves a lot of folks missing out on what was originally predicted.

    Please note that my call on this being a bust is purely gut, what I see on radar and what I see out my window. We got a dusting on the far NE side of Fairport about an hour ago and now it's doing nothing.

    I've just lived here long enough to know that LES amounts frequently never materialize. I hope to wake up tomorrow and find that my gut has proven me wrong.

    Andy

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  87. This does not surprise me in the least. We always get dissappointed in Rocheseter. It never works the other way. Just once I would like to see the mets forecast snow and we get more than what they say. It always works the opposite. Oh well, nothng we can do. I am going to bed. We have had a whopping half inch in North Western Wayne County. We have scattered flurries right now.

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  88. Hamlin plow driverJanuary 2, 2012 at 11:00 PM

    I might need help with this one but it looks to me like there is still a small connection upstream dropping into orleans county. THEY WILL BE THE BIG SNOWFALL WINNER. I would say they get 4-6.

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  89. Hey it looks like News 8 jumped to quick on the fact that we were going to get a lot more snow than we did. Scott said he was 100% on that it was going to be very snowy Monday night and Tuesday morning.John had good snows yesterday in his post. The other local mets were more accurate on this one so we see about the rest of the winter. When you advertise Rochester's most accurate forecast you have to held accountable.

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  90. So far in Newark all we have is maybe an inch. Not snowing right now...but hoping for it to pick up. I would love to see 5 or more inches today...

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  91. About 2 inches in Lyons as of this writing. Looks lime we may have dodged another bullet.

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  92. Yep, sorry...100% snow, 8-14 inches where I live, okay only half of that....ummm, we got nothing. Not 8-14, not half of that, not even an eighth of that. We got zero snow. I know LES is hard to predict, but nothing? I'm disappointed.

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  93. BUST BUST BUST. I WOKE UP TO 1 INCH IN NORTH WESTERN WAYNE COUNTY. THIS IS WHEN I REALLY FEEL FOR THE METS BECAUSE IT JUST SHOWS HOW DIFFICULT IT IS TO FORECAST AROUND HERE. THE WEATHER DOES WHAT IT WANTS. JUST ONCE THOUGH I WOULD LOVE TO SEE IT WORK THE OPPOSITE WHERE WE FORECAST LOW AND ACTUALLY GET SOMETHING MUCH BIGGER. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL NT BE MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK AND A HALF. PITIFUL WINTER SO FAR.

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  94. Some are talking about an east coast storm around NEXT weekend, but who knows.

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  95. weatherdan you are correct this has been a bad winter and there is nothing coming for the next two weeks at least. We should just hope for an early spring. The pattern for storms and snow is just not there.

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  96. A complete bust. Only a dusting in Fairport. Unfortunately my gut was right. At least its cold and looks more like winter. Lots and lots of winter left.

    Andy

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  97. To be fair, Scott was the first to lower his snow totals and lowered them more - he had 4-8 inches at 11 pm and was saying "no big deal" when the other channels still had 6-10 and were touting a difficult commute this morning. So channel 8 is still the most accurate forecast, even in this event, which was obviously difficult to predict. Well done Scott.

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  98. We got some moderate snow here in Newark now. If we can keep this band going, we will have a nice amount of accumulation.

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  99. As Sheldon would say BAZINGA!
    Expected a disaster based on all the forecasts and got <1".
    Whoever said bring on spring---I agree.

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  100. Hi all,

    Well, the combination of low level shear, some dry air & gusty northwest winds over the shorter fetch of the lake capped our lake snow event, or lack thereof. Snow lovers, winter enthusiasts I hate to say, but the rest of this week does not look too promising with just a little snow possible tomorrow with a warm front & then maybe a bit of snow Thursday with a cold front & disturbance. Come Friday a warm front will slowly push through & may trigger a little wet snow &/or icy mix to drizzle with a late day high near 40. After a mild, tranquil Saturday, Sunday & Monday will turn a bit colder with a few snow showers possible. A weak coastal wave of low pressure doesn't look too threatening right now, but if something changes of course we will keep you posted.

    Have a great night & stay warm everyone!

    John

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  101. Not trying to be a jerk but, what is the record for Rochester, least snowiest winter? Im just curious and I cant seem to look it up online.

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  102. David:

    Using the link below on the National Weather Service Website, you can look up Rochester snowfall monthly and annually back to 1940. It shows that since 1940, the lowest amount of snow for an entire season was 41.7 inches in 1952-53. Hope this helps.

    http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/climate/roc_snow00s.php

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  103. This is where it gets frustrating... last night it really appeared that we would get a ton of snow and this is why its so hard to forecast lake snow because it can appear one way and then wind up the other way

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  104. We are definately on track for the least snowiest winter ever. I know things can change but with nothing coming up in the next 2 weeks we are already to mid-january by then.

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  105. Only 1" or less in SP from whole event. Clyde area got hit hard this morning and ended up with 8 inches! I drove to work this morning in basically a whiteout at 7:00am. They were the big winners as no one else got even close to 8". Snow totals petered out quickly to the north in Rose, with basically nothing north of 104.

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  106. bummed hamlin plow driverJanuary 3, 2012 at 6:18 PM

    NO snow in all of Hamlin. The cold was nice for a change. Need snow for overtime though. There is always February or march if January does fail us. Would be nice to see a march of 1993(supper storm) rip up the coast this winter. That would be worth the wait, we can only hope.

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  107. Its freaking cold outside. It was 0 degrees last time i checked down here in Chili! And pattern change next week!

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  108. Right on plow driver, that March 93 blizzard was an amazing event. The forecasters nailed that blizzard like 5-7 days before it ever developed.

    I would gladly trade a 100" winter like last year for a 60 inch winter with 1 or 2 good storms.

    Andy

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  109. Where and when do u see a pattern change? Looks mild next week again.

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  110. Mid to late next week, models have been hinting for at least of couple days now at some sort of low tracking up the east coast, pulling cold air down, and then a clipper like system diving down the mid section a day after, reinforcing the cold.

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  111. Where is Scott has had no comment in a while. What does he think about a pattern change. He said a bit ago about a pattern change mid January does he still think that?

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  112. I wish they would update this blog.

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  113. Nothing to update weatherdan very quiet weather the next few weeks. Just wish an early spring would come because sick of waiting for snow stroms that are not coming. It is hurting financially this horrible winter and those who rely on this for their living.

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  114. Sucks for snowplowers, unless you have contracts. But big accounts, like wegmans, walmart, shopping plaza's ect usually pay by the hour. Most business rent loaders at around 1,000 month. so right there your bleeding money. Unless you own the loaders that cost between 20-100k Winter is big business, big money, and this no snow sucks. And I mean NO snow.

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  115. I hear you David but we can not give up hope yet. In fact a week from now we could be talkng about a big storm that could hit the great lakes. The question will be again will the track lead us to all white or wet? I think it is something to monitor. Check out the recent Euro and GFS.

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  116. I hear it is supposed to be near 50 by next Tuesday and Wednesday. What the heck is going on?????

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  117. Just keep an eye on it weatherdan you never know 8 days out. The track will be the key.

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  118. That storm looks sick. But yea, 8 days out and models love to throw out fantasy runs. If that starts to show up on each run consistently, and we get closer I will start to get excited

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  119. I do not see it. What am I missing?

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  120. And if it does happen, will it even be snow?

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  121. David, the models have bringing that storm up the coast since New Year's eve in a couple of the runs. The models seem to be in better agreement that something is indeed brewing for next week. But I do agree that it is a long way out and many things can change. However, if that were today, it would probably begin as rain but then rapidly change to snow due to it pulling down cold air as it rapidly strengthens. It would easily give us 6"+, but again, still a ways away.

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  122. Yeah. If it was today it would definately be rain then a mix and then snow. This will change 1000 times before then, but it will be fun to watch either way.

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  123. David said...

    Not trying to be a jerk but, what is the record for Rochester, least snowiest winter? Im just curious and I cant seem to look it up online.

    It's about 29", and I think it was around 1932-Scott has mentioned this and I hope he can confirm.
    I'd sure like to beat that record. I still believe (but certainly am not hoping for) that we will get 80" with Feb and early March really bad. No science here just a bad feeling.

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