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Wednesday, January 4

Moderating Temperatures Today; Mild by Weeks End



Written by John DiPasquale:


COOOLLLDDDDDD start today!!! However, brisk southwest winds will help us warm up to more tolerable readings this afternoon, but wind chills will remain in the upper single digits to mid teens throughout the rest of today! Bundle up! This morning we got down to 3 here in Rochester, but other more rural spots certainly were down around or just below zero! Brrr!! Tonight will not be nearly that cold as temperatures will hold steady if not rise a bit overnight into the 25 to 30 degree range. There will likely be a few snow showers in the air tonight too, as a cold front/trough moves in.


The latest data is suggesting that there could be a bit of lake snow moving in late morning into the afternoon, which I buy considering it will be just cold enough & there will be some low level moisture, plus the trough/cold front will essentially stall out nearby, which should act as a bit of a forcing mechanism. I don't expect much from this lake snow band tomorrow, but there could be anywhere from a coating to as much as 2 or 3" by day's end across the Greater Rochester area to around the Thruway corridor/Northern Finger Lakes. Temperatures on our Thursday will range from 30 to 35.


Any lake snows will quickly dissipate & swing north tomorrow evening in advance of a warm front that MAY trigger a little snow &/or icy mix late tomorrow night into early Friday, before we warm into the 40s later Friday with a few rain showers possible to end the day.


The weekend right now looks quite benign & mild to start. The next chance to see something possibly interesting evolve may not be until next Thursday/Friday time frame. We'll see.


Have a great night everyone!

22 comments:

  1. That potential storm looks good even being this far out. The latest Euro and GFS are almost identical in placement of the two pieces of energy that will eventually come together, with the Euro being a little bit slower with it ejecting from the Southeast. This should be interesting for someone, hopefully its us!

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  2. We'll be watching late next week. I can say with certainty that after that low departs, we will be cold for awhile afterward. Mid January could be the switch toward colder weather for a few weeks at least.

    Scott

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  3. I know its far out but I would like to hear the news 8 team chime in a little bit on it, and what they think of it. I know its just models, 8 days out, ect. ect. ect. But its still fun!

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  4. HAHA thanks Scott. You posted that the same second I posted my comment.

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  5. Worried about the warm air and track of that low. Looks to me like and rain to start then over to snow and windy at the end.

    Scott

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  6. Would it be better to see the Low move a little east? Or it just needs to deepen to pull cold air down?

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  7. Yes to both would be the best scenario. If it gets too strong too early it can throw mild air in off the Atlantic as well. Obviously only speculation until about 6 days from now.

    Scott

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  8. What's the best track for western NY to get substantial snowfall from one storm? More southwest to northeast or just plain south to north up the coast? If I recall correctly the valentine's day storm took more of a west to east track and absolutely clobbered us! To this day, I have never seen it snow so steadily for almost the entire day.

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  9. I see the AO has been trending downward towards neutral...and may become negative...is this one of the factors contributing to local meteorologists speaking with more certainty about the upcoming pattern change?

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  10. I said earlier this possible strom does bear watching for mid to late next week. It would be awesome if every thing lined up right for us once but it is way out. It is also hard to have confidence it will the way things have gone the last two winters. But the new Andrew who mentioned this storm potential earlier, when the negative weatherdan was being negative, will remain positive. ( kidding weatherdan) ps what does Charles Wachel think about this storm potential?

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  11. Ya never know... Ill check it out each day and Maybe Monday if its still looking promising ill get excited... :-)

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  12. It us about 8 days away alot can change you need to wait as Scott said before till it gets alot closer

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  13. So the NWS shouldnt issue a Heavy Snow Warning tonight? haha

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  14. Hamlin Parked Plow Truck WasherJanuary 4, 2012 at 8:57 PM

    Weatherguy,
    I would say the bigger snowfalls come from storms developing in the gulf tracking south to north up the coast just inland. However cold air must be in place. Southwest to Northeast tracking storms will most of the time transfer their eneregy to the coast. Heaviest snowfall from Chicago to cleveland, and then from Northern New york to maine. Or west to east tracking storms will track west giving us rain. Next weeks possible storm will likely be like last weeks, when cold air was not in place. The cold air will not make it into the area until after the storm passes north. It is going to be a mostly rain event with limited LES potential do to the storm's speed. I cant stand when a storm takes a nice tracks for our area without cold air in place. It feels like a missed opportunity. Only time will tell. Remember, these are only the opionions of a local highway. worker.

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  15. To be honest, there is no cold air in place, it will be 80% rain. Not excited at all right now.

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  16. I am not going to say anything about the storm... I really am only good (and I missed this last one anyways) at short term forecasting

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  17. THE LATEST GFS TAKES THE STORM TOO FAR EAST TO EVEN AFFECT US ANYWAY. IT WILL BRING COLD AIR DOWN AND HOPEFULLY CHANGE THIS RIDICULOUS SNOWLESS PATTERN.

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  18. It will change but yes again it will either be too far east or it will be rain but we are used to this by now. Hopefully it will change the pattern the next several weeks but we will have to wait and see.

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  19. Weatherdan still way to early to have exact track so stay postive something you do so well. The biggest problem may be the lack of cold air and track. We may end up on the ugly rain side but stay tuned still 7 days out.

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  20. Can we get 2 inches today so I can atleast take my daughter sledding?

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  21. DAVID, 2 INCHES??? NOW YOUR PUSHING IT. WE WILL BE LUCKY TO GET A DUSTING.

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