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Thursday, January 5

A Little Snow Around Today, but Not Much



Written by John DiPasquale:


A much milder start to this Thursday it was compared to yesterday's bitter beginning!


Other than a little lake snow & a few snow showers from a weak cold front, today will be pretty uneventful. There may be a dusting to an inch in spots this afternoon, especially north & east of Rochester, but that's about it.

Late tonight into Friday morning a warm front will be dragged through the area with a gusty west-southwest moderating wind. There may be a snow/mixed shower late tonight into the start of tomorrow with the warm front's passage, & thereafter the temperatures will jump up into the mid to perhaps upper 40s Friday afternoon with breaks of sun developing!


The weekend will feature a cool down back to more seasonable levels by Sunday after we start in the 40s Saturday with a couple of rain & snow showers possible on Saturday. A few flurries may be flying around Sunday, but the weather should remain quiet to end the weekend & start next week.


Next Tuesday & Wednesday will probably warm back into the 40s with maybe even some more sun, but then come Thursday a storm should move up into the Northeast with some rain ending as snow & possibly transitioning to lake snows late next week. The cold shot late next week may stick around for awhile too, as the NAO may turn neutral to somewhat negative. We'll see...


Have a great night everyone!


55 comments:

  1. WOW!!!! THIS COULD BE A SNOWLESS JANUARY AS WELL. NO SNOW THROUGH MID JANUARY. COULD WE BEAT THE 42 INCH WINTER????

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  2. If it rains much with the storm next week, it better come with good lightning, that way I can stand on my roof with a metal rod held over my head. I can't take this anymore. Absolutely nothing worse than rain in the winter.

    Andy

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  3. TO FUNNY ANDY. I FEEL YOUR PAIN.

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  4. There is still no way to exactly tell what type of precipatation we will get from this storm a week or so from now. I think we also have to keep an eye on possibly an ice event somewhere with this storm. It should be interesting to track over the weekend. Still think we have to keep an eye on it and not assume we will get rain.

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  5. Here's what the NWS is saying about next weekends(14th-15th)cool down....
    IT APPEARS THAT THIS NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL BE ANOTHER TRANSIENT
    ONE...WITH NO FUNDAMENTAL PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE. LONG TERM
    ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TROUGH QUICKLY LIFTING OUT AFTER A
    FEW DAYS AND ALLOWING ZONAL FLOW AND PACIFIC AIR TO FLOOD EAST. THE
    AO/NAO WILL BE TRENDING LOWER OVER THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS...BUT STILL
    NOT NEGATIVE BY ANY MEANS AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY LASTING HIGH
    LATITUDE BLOCKING IS NOTED ON THE GFS OR ECMWF OVER THE NEXT 10
    DAYS. IT DOES APPEAR A PATTERN CHANGE MAY HAPPEN DOWN THE ROAD THAT
    MIGHT FAVOR -NAO/-AO FOLLOWING A SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT
    WHICH IS JUST ENDING...BUT THAT PATTERN CHANGE IS PROBABLY STILL 2-3
    WEEKS AWAY. UNTIL THEN...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WILL
    LIKELY CONTINUE.

    Scott, do you agree?

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  6. Wow. If the above is true, January will be snowless and we could very well end up going into February with less than 12 inches of snow for the year. I have lived here all my life and have never seen it this bad before.

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  7. What's going on with this crazy wx? Seems like the whole US is low on snow. Even the ski resorts out west are hurting for snow.

    Andy

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  8. So the NWS is completely worthless as the discussion above is entirely the opposite of what the map says from the Climate Prediction Center. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that a branch of the NWS? And if so, they are basically saying they have no clue what will happen in the next couple weeks.

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  9. I don't get the NWS and what posted from them. The AO has been trending negative for two weeks straight now. Yet they keep predicting it to go up? The NAO is slowly going towards neutral; doesn't the NAO follow the AO? If these two go negative, I think this pattern change may have some staying power.

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  10. Everyone must remember, this is the same NWS that forecasted 8-16" of snow this past weekend!

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  11. Bored Hamlin Plow PainterJanuary 5, 2012 at 6:22 PM

    I beleive there no forecaster in western newyork that truely beleives there is going to be a patern change at the end of next week. They beleive winter will be half over next week, so it must have to change. This could be the winter with NO consitant cold air and snow. I think forecasters are playing the odds and not forecasting with the tools in front of them. Maybe we should just start to understand this winter might never get here. It might snow abit here or there but it will not stick around. I say bring on May sunshine, we might as well go fishing, or play golf. Both of which are better than sitting around blogging about the BORRING WINTER WEATHER we have this year.

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  12. I almost forgot next Thursday's-Friday's storm ALL RAIN. I HATE THE RAIN unless i am trying to grow grass. I am not, so this weather SUCKS!

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  13. I predict some crazy blizzard late february or early march.

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  14. It is just so bleak if you make your living counting on snow. Really really really bad.

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  15. WHY IS THE PATTERN SO INACTIVE FOR STORMS. THE WHOLE COUNTRY HAS A LACK OF SNOW.

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  16. Too bad Mr. DiPasquale slept through geography in high school. The word is arctic (ark-tic, not ar-tic). He said it not once, but three times on Monday, January 11th. This is just one of the reasons I prefer Kevin Williams on Channel 10!

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  17. If you prefer Channel 10 with Josh Pickles then why are you on the most accurate forecast in Rochester's blog??

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  18. Hello Anonymous, I know it's ArCtic, but for some reason it came out with a lazy "C" when I was saying it Monday. We are human, & sometimes make mistakes:-)

    Weatherdan, the polar & subtropical jet streams have not been coming together to create big storms too much lately, with the exception of earlier this week when a big storm formed, but all it did for us is pull down some Arctic air & a little lake snow. Late next week could get interesting...

    Speaking of Arctic, there will be no such air mass of this type around for at least the next several days. Late next week into next weekend we could feel a shot of very cold air with a bit of snow & lake snow, but it still so far away & as we all know a lot could change between now & then. Until late next week the weather will be BORING, which is great for travelers, but not winter enthusiasts & snow lovers:-( Temperatures look to be above average for the majority of the next almost week or so too!

    Have a good Friday & weekend everyone!

    John

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  19. Yes the latest GFS is bad. Get the rain gear out late next week. It really stinks when you get rain in January in Rochester. I think we may set the record for the least snow this winter ever in Rochester.

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  20. I seriously am thinking of taking my snow tires off! feels like such a waste to have them on. when we do get snow its not for more than 1 day. I really hope that we do get a change soon, otherwise it feels like one long boring Fall around here. i like the four seasons.

    P.S. to the anonymous that called John out on mispeaking: really? does it make you feel better to put down other people? Im sure you have never made a mistake before? Stay off the blog if your not here for the right reasons.

    -frustrated in Farmington

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  21. On a positive note the rain will wash the tons of salt they put on the roads for a trace of snow. I think we have to get used to this winter being snowless. I have lived here all my life and have never seen it like this before. This pattern is persistant and is not breaking. I know the Mets are saying it will change at the end of last week but will it last and will there be synoptic snow events????

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  22. whats weird is that its not just us, its the whole country. some have seen record high temperatures lately. seems like only people getting snow are in the very favored lake effect areas and even they are not seeing as much as usual. I wish there was a way to know for sure if something was going to change al this or if it will be up and down. seems no one can predict that far out.

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  23. I know lots of folks are waiting on snow, but look at it this way - if we do end up with the great "winter that wasn't", what a tale we'll all have to tell future generations!

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  24. It is 50 degrees on January 6th in Rochester. No precipitation in the forecast until next Thursday. This is weird.

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  25. Im getting a lot of yardwork done. Little muddy though.

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  26. A few months ago, John DiPasquale said in the winter forecast video, that he was thinking it would be an extreme winter for snow. Either VERY snowy or very LITTLE snow. I'm hoping he is right twice... meaning extremely snowy in the 2nd half.

    I might have to turn my snowmobile into a yard planter.

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  27. Problem is its so muddy because the ground isn't frozen. My lawn is a mess partly due to my dog but if it were frozen with no snow it would be better than warm and no snow.

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  28. This pattern is not going away we will not see any big storms this winter all rain events.

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  29. all we can do is wait and see. sure makes for a boring blog when there is no weather to be excited about. NWS states that even when the cold air returns next week's end, it will not stick around very long, and then it may be another 2-3 weeks before a significant pattern change will take place. 2-3 more weeks of this? very depressing. I really do feel bad for those who count on snow for a living. it is not usually something you expect to not be here. We always get something, even if the big storms miss us.

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  30. Look at it this way guys...with temps this mild, it is keeping all of that heat energy stored in lake Ontario. The lake temperature is warmer than average right now. So, when the other shoe drops....and it WILL....that could make the lake effect snow even more intense because of the increased stability from the warmer lake and thus more energy.

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  31. I think Jesus is coming!

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  32. Unemployed Hamlin plow truck driverJanuary 6, 2012 at 3:52 PM

    I dont even think Jesus can save this winter.

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  33. lovely weather today as a snow hater I say thanks to mother nature for a mild winter. Last year as a beast

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  34. I hope this change doesnt take place so late in the season that it spoils our spring and summer????

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  35. HI SNOWFAN,

    WE KEEP SAYING THE OTHER SHOE WILL DROP,BUT MAYBE IT WILL NOT THIS YEAR. EVERY WEEK I HEAR OF AN IMPENDING PATTERN SHIFT AND THEN THAT WEEK COMES AND STILL NO PATTERN SHIFT. SCOTT STATES BY MID JANUARY. WELL, NEXT WEEK IS MID JANUARY AND IT SEEMS AS IF IT WILL GET COLD BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT WILL BE FLEATING.

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  36. Many say that cold will not stick what is a long term forecast say for it?

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  37. 2001-02 winter was very similar to this one. No significant snow, brief cool downs followed by above average temperatures and lots of rain. I was never able to ride my snowmobile locally that year. That's the only year...besides this one so far...where that has happened.

    Truly unbelievable.

    Well, if there's going to be no snow, it may as well be 50 degrees. It was pleasant to be outside today with only a light jacket and no hat or gloves.

    We complain about a lack of snow, but think about the businesses on Tug Hill and in Old Forge that depend on thousands of snowmobilers in three short months to make 70-90% of their annual income. They are really, really hurting and have a hard time making (mainly on The Hill) it even during a good winter because they have little summer business.

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  38. What a nice day. Can you believe I couldn't find an open golf course? No open golf courses in Rochester in January?

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  39. RGE has to be hating this. I smell a rate hike coming.

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  40. Could next weekends potential lake snow storm be worse then this last one due to lighter winds and more moisture?

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  41. Do not even look ahead to LES it never pans out for the Rochester metro. It is impossible to predict and not even worth wasting time discussing it.

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  42. How do you spell, i cup?

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  43. Hamlin truck driver/plowdriver?January 6, 2012 at 10:24 PM

    Anonymous,
    Latest GfS model run DOES NOT favor LES for Roc area. West-Southwest flow with GFS current placement of weak low to our northwest. Much deeper coastal low moves out to quickly. Cold air wont stick around long, it will be gone by the following tuesday. It is a long way out, but very consintent with this winter's current trends. I'm saying not much snow next weekend, and cold air wont stick around. Who knows after all, i work for a highway department i am not a news channel Meteorologist.

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  44. These model runs are scary! This really could be the least snowiest winter on record, cause not one model wants to budge on this pattern, even down the road a ways. This really sucks!

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  45. Agreed Weatherguy. There will be no pattern change. This looks to persist through the rest of January at least. It looks like channel 8's winter forecast will be a BUST big time. The last 2 years they have been way way way off. They shold not do winter forecasts. Too difficult tp predict.

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  46. i can't remember a year where its been january 7th and i havent had to use the snow blower or even shovel once yet here in farmington. blows my mind. I don't think anyone could have predicted this. I don't fault news 8 for trying to forecast what they thought winter would do. No sense in pointing fingers. It is what it is.

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  47. can we at least get an updated blog topic to post on? we are still working on thursdays pot from John lol.

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  48. There was a year in the mid to early 90's that was like this. Only significant snow happened in mid March. I think it snowed in April that year too. I'd bet that's what is going to happen this year if this keeps up. Cold, wet spring right through May.

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  49. Anonymous above is correct. If winter doesn't become winter, that cold ArCtic air will show up eventually in the form of a miserable spring. This happened in 2001-02, the last winter that resembled this one. (BTW, above anonymous poster, Jan 2002 had basically no snow...some showed up at the airport measuring station, but it was so warm that it did not last). Dec 2006-Jan 2007 looked a lot like this winter so far...actually warmer and LESS snow, believe it or not...but it turned on a dime and got cold and snowy all the way through March 2007.

    Scott is talking with certainty about a pattern change after next weekend's storm. Other meteorologists are saying the storm come , it will get cold, then will warm up again just like it has done all along. Other meteorologists are saying the true pattern change will occur at the end of the month. It will be interesting to see what happens.

    AO has been trending downward for two weeks but popped back up yesterday all of sudden.

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  50. Another gorgeous day. 50 at noon on 1/7--I am loving this. Think I'll wash the car. There is more inches of salt on my car then there has been snow on the ground all winter.
    Enjoy while it lasts.

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  51. Whoa! Some forgot to give Wheaterdan his meds today. That or he was drinking til 4am this morning. Someone is seriously bi-polar. There is my weather reference for the day.

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  52. I hope scott is right, when did he predict that the pattern change is still coming next week? i will have to watch him tonight. wait, its the weekend, will be stacy probably.

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  53. Weatherdan=weatherdi(k

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  54. Hamlin putting plow away for the seasonJanuary 7, 2012 at 3:35 PM

    Scott has been very consistant since mid Dec with his thinking of a patern change the second week in Jan. As we close in on the second week of Jan it will be interesting to see if he sticks to his forecast, and if that patern change truely comes. I suspect the patern change is not comming, no consistant cold. Maybe two or three days of cold here and there with many more days in the 40's to come. If it isn't going to snow much this winter i hope we break the record for the least snowiest winter. This way we can all remember the winter of 2011-2012, the winter that wasn't, and a winter we will hopefully never touch again.
    PS. Hopefully this is one of my last blogs of the season. This would mean it is snowing, and i will be busy plowing, not blogging. We will see, but i have my doubts.

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