Get your daily dose of weather news

with Scott Hetsko, Chief Meteorologist

RSS FEED SUBSCRIBE BY EMAIL

Our weather blog brings you expert perspective on the latest weather news. Our weather experts share the inside scoop with blog entries from the studio and from the field. Check out the latest weather news and storm coverage in our most recent blog entries.

Saturday, January 7

Same Stuff, Different Day

Written by: Stacey Pensgen


Sorry, snow lovers. The first half of January looks like it'll be similar to our December - above average for temperatures, and below average for snow. A LOT below average.

Our next storm arrives during the day on Wedneday, and looks like it'll be another rain event for us, at least when the bulk of the moisture will be falling. We will likely see snow showers on Thursday as colder air makes it in, but just like all the rest of our storms, there shouldn't be a whole lot of moisture left to dump snow on us.

After that, we do cool down quite a bit, but as we (and many of you) have pointed out, it won't be a pattern changer. By that time, we'll be heading into our 3rd full week of January. Scott pointed out that the 2006/2007 season started out similar to this year, and we wound up with 107". However, the 1941/1942 winter season started similar for snowfall, and we ended up with 66" of snow.

Unlike many of you, I'm not a snow lover, but man - this weather is BORING! I'm hoping for some snow just to be able to talk about something! We've still got quite a bit of winter left, but I have to admit, I'm getting a little frustrated as the days pass by with no winter weather.

28 comments:

  1. I've been reduced to sitting on my snowmobile making snowmobile noises while it sits in the garage. Very difficult when you wait all year for this and it is such a dud. It would be like summer being cold and rainy from end to end with gardens and golf courses soggy and unusable.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I am with you anonymous. I have one sled pointing at the garage door, ready to go, just need to press the opener button. Another one is sitting in my garage in Oswego County. Luckily there have been two very limited opportunities to ride this year - once after a 15" lake effect event (snow was gone three days later), and after an 8" snowfall a few days after Christmas.

    Sounds like the mets are backing off this upcoming storm being a pattern changer.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Those lake effect events I was referring to above occurred in NE Oswego County. I figured I had better note that before you think I am nuts.

    By the way, that last 8" snowfall (I think it fell on a Tuesday-Wednesday) was gone by Sunday. Bare ground up there now. Some of the seasonal roads on the very highest elevations of Tug Hill have SOME snow, but snowmobile traffic in the Empire State (and the ENTIRE northeast) is silent. Nearest rideable snow can be found about 2-3 hours north of Ottawa and Montreal.

    ReplyDelete
  4. How does a meteorologist in a place like Western New York not like snow? Isn't a fascination with a phenomenon as amazing as snow something that should come naturally to someeone who took the time to go to college to study meteorology and become a meteorologist? It's like an auto mechanic who likes automobiles but doesn't really like to work on engines. Odd. Is their profession truly in their hearts in those cases? Oh well, I guess there's the hard core meteorologists who live for weather, and then there's the "San Diego Meteorologists."

    ReplyDelete
  5. No one has to love a certain type of weather to work here. Stacey is more of a severe weather lover where I like winter weather more. Does that mean that I am less passionate than she is for weather? No way! By the way, the advertised pattern change looks like a dud. NAO forecasts have een very unreliable this Winter. The two week projection has been negative for a month now yet it has not happened. It appears that we may be down to Feb-March for hopes of snow and cold

    Scott

    ReplyDelete
  6. Do we know what the reasons are? Is it the La Nina? What is the cause of such a mild pattern with zero blocking for going on 3 months?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Don't get me wrong, I love a good snowstorm. I just love a good thunderstorm more. What I don't love is boring weather, which is what we've got going on (duh)!

    - Stacey

    ReplyDelete
  8. I heard that the entire middle latitudes of the northern hemisphere has been having a boring winter. This seems to be something bigger than la nina. But, it is the year 2012 after all...

    ReplyDelete
  9. Yea, Stacey dumped Mr.Snowstorm for me, I am better at making noise (if you know what I mean).
    I also have nicer legs.

    Mr.Thunderhead

    ReplyDelete
  10. Come on baby light my fire..

    ReplyDelete
  11. At least it does like like we will get at least a shot of some pretty cold air on Friday after the next storm goes through if the EURO is correct.

    ReplyDelete
  12. At least we've had a few nice days in a row with sun. Thankfully we haven't had much rain this winter.

    So at least for now the proverbial glass is half full. Now I want to fill it to the top with snow :)

    Andy

    ReplyDelete
  13. According to wxrisk.com, there's lots going on in the Arctic. The AO has finally gone negative, too, as it has been trending downward since before Christmas. Something is going to change in the next 10 days...just don't know what.

    ReplyDelete
  14. GFS looks promising concerning the long range for once! Hopefully this waiting game ends soon. If we can make it through this winter and still love following winter weather, we can make it through anything!

    ReplyDelete
  15. What is it showing Weatherguy?

    ReplyDelete
  16. What do people think about possible LES snow next weekend. I know it is tough to predict and the last one was not good but looks like conditions are ripe again and there will be WNW wind?

    ReplyDelete
  17. Andrew, your definitely on to something. Looks like there is going to be plenty of moisture for the lakes to work with and where the low cuts off will determine who gets the snow. Plus, it looks as though the polar vortex will be sliding south, giving us plenty of cold to work with next weekend and beyond!

    ReplyDelete
  18. Plower on his way to DSSJanuary 8, 2012 at 9:51 PM

    Maybe we'll get crushed like the last LES event, although, the only thing crushed was my heart.

    ReplyDelete
  19. These guys at channel 8 don't know when to trust the models. The GFS is right this time. We do have one of two pattern changes coming. We are going to start to see some snow. The cold will hang around for more than 1 day. There will be multiple cold episodes. Yes, we may moderate "some what", but It will not be a warm as it has been. What may happen in February is brutal cold air, and big snow! The setup (teleconnection) for February might look like the kind of cold that we had during the Reagan inauguration, which could dump the whole vortex in the northeast. At the very least, we would be very cold anyway. This cold along with an active southern jet would lead to some "big daddy" snow events here. However, channel 8 will not tell people these kind of things because they want to stimulate our local economy. It is obvious that people will spend money on their credit cards when they know that the weather will not be too bad, especially in the long term. If we do get this kind of harsh weather in February, it would seem 1000 times worse because we had nothing yet. This would really put even more of a damper on many peoples already miserable lives. I guess the point here is that channel 8 is not going to prepare you for a possible brutal end of winter. They will sugar coat it in every way imaginable.

    ReplyDelete
  20. I'm guessing whatever you are smoking is definitely laced. I have some leftover meds that weatherdan didn't need, give me your address and I will send you some. You need more than he does. Seriously though, please consult help!

    ReplyDelete
  21. To all the gentlemen on here complaining about the lack of snow in relation to their plowing (directed to self employed vs. town workers). I am guessing if you plow driveways (there isn't money in those anyways), you are the contractors charging per trip with no minimum and/or your contracts are way too cheap (anything less that $300). If you plow commercially, you are once again per trip without a minimum. The bigger contractors may not be making as much from the "salt" runs but their contracts and/or per trip clients with a minimum keep them comfortably afloat. Maybe this will weed out the "scabs". Nothing personal, just food for thought. Have a good morning!

    ReplyDelete
  22. Hey Andrew, A WNW wind would favor Eastern Monroe and into Wayne county though wouldnt it. That wind direction would not be a good set-up for most of Monroe county West.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Your telling people to trust models but they change everyday. You can't go and tell the public a forecast two weeks or farther out when it will most likely change. Give the mets a break they are doing their job in a slow time.

    ReplyDelete
  24. I am not sure at this point weatherdan guess I am just hoping someone anyone close gets slammed maybe it will be a start to a change for all of Rochester. We will have to wait until Friday I guess to see if anything comes about. LES is the most difficult thing to predict as Scott says it is zip code snow.

    ReplyDelete
  25. to the anonymous from above that basically said that news 8 is bad....what are your credentials, whaqt proof do you have of all this? You really think that the news 8 team has an underlying goal to uninform the public so the economy can prosper? You have some serious consiracy issues...you probably think we never landed on moon also right? I'm just curious because you sound very knowledgeable, enlighten us on your expertise.

    ReplyDelete
  26. I don't know if I am more entertained by the humor on this blog or the weather anylysis. Either way, keep it up everyone. Keeps me coming back for more.

    Chili Resident

    ReplyDelete
  27. Leave Stacey alone. You don't have to love snow to love weather. There is all kinds of interesting weather. Even this boring weather is interesting - look at all the discussion it has generated as to WHY it's been so boring.

    Some people make their living from snow and are passionate about our areas getting some - I get that. But can we please respect other people's opinions? To say you can't be a true weather enthusiast and not love snow, is incredibly close-minded.

    I hate snow. You love it. We all love weather. Can't we all just get along?

    Hey Stacey, wouldn't a WINTER thunderstorm be cool?

    ReplyDelete
  28. Ok so seriously, some stations are saying that the pattern change is coming starting this weekend, and some are saying that this is only short lived...what do you guys think is really going to happen?

    ReplyDelete

Blog Archive