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Wednesday, January 11

RAIN LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

Written By: Scott Hetsko

After temperatures near 50 degrees this afternoon, it will cloud up with rain arriving before midnight. This will be a rain maker and I honestly don't see where anyone thinks snow will be an issue Thursday. Low pressure will track West along with a SE wind. We never get snow with that type of surface wind. 850mb temperatures won't get below freezing until after5Z Friday.

I saw someone post a forecast discussion from the NWS. I honestly don't know why they put out such nonsense when analyzing just one or two model runs. It's true that the low pressure will strengthen thanks to support from a 500mb low from the Great Lakes. The problem lies in WHERE the low is tracking. We're on the SE quadrant and I can count maybe one time in a HUNDRED that we would get significant snow in that region. It's like the chances of a car crashing into your house. Could it happen? Sure. But the chances are too remote to mention.

Friday will be windy and colder with occasional snow and snow showers. Right now I would categorize snow amounts as a nuisance for the majority of the area. Lake effect will become the primary snow maker Friday evening and early Saturday.

32 comments:

  1. Just what I stated Scott the track is west and that brings rain.

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  2. Another gorgeous day. Golf course was very busy. Gotta love it while it lasts.

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  3. If models panned out what they are showing right now, we get moderate to heavy snow, plain and simple. However, I'll agree with Scott saying that its unlikely, but then again, this has been a strange winter....

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  4. I agree Weatherguy. When we call for snow, we get none. This time we are calling for no snow and we will get it!

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  5. Scott, how do you not see significant snow Friday? Models show us in a deformation zone type swath, and 850 is plenty cold enough to support snow. Just wondering your thoughts?

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  6. If you live in a retirement home, chances of a car crashing through your living room are prettyyyyy good!

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  7. I'll admit that my condifence is LOW about Friday. For that reason, I'll wait until tomorrow evening to publish accumulations.

    Scott

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  8. Fair enough Scott, I was just making sure that it was still a possibility.

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  9. Hope for snow is okay.... we need something to boost morale.

    Does it look like cooler temps will continue well into next week?

    Andy

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  10. I think this has been one of the worst years for the National Weather Service producing inflated snowfall forecasts and having them be a bust. I don't mean to be disrespectful - there are many brilliant minds over there in Buffalo, but sometimes I don't understand where they're getting their forecasts from.

    Scott, do you know Tom Niziol? He retired from the NWS and he is now The Weather Channel's Winter Weather Expert, right up there with Dr. Steve Lyons and Dr. Greg Forbes.

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  11. He is a GREAT choice for the weather channel. Dr. Forbes was my teacher for my severe weather class at Penn State in 1998. I've been a long admirer of Tom Niziol. I spent many a day researching his papers on lake effect. Love the guy!

    Scott

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  12. From NWS update. WE ARE LIKELY
    LOOKING AT A GENERAL ACCUMULATING SNOW SEVERAL INCHES.

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  13. You forgot this MORE IMPORTANT part of their discussion:

    DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE.
    ORIENTATION OF THIS FEATURE DIFFERS FROM MODEL TO MODEL MAKING THE
    PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOWFALL AXIS FRIDAY RATHER DIFFICULT.
    STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY TO HOW THE SYNOPTIC PORTION OF THIS
    SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT PLACING RELATIVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL
    FORECAST FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

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    Replies
    1. The Potential is there though.

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  14. Funny how some people see the word snow and don't read anything else. Good thing some of the people who only believe one run of a model don't do the forecast every day.

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  15. Looking out the window is the time honored tradition......

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  16. Winter Weather Advisory! At least it's something.....

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  17. NWS just upped the snow amount. Why isn't anyone talking about this?

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  18. Hello Everyone,

    Alright, the 12z data just came in over the last hour or so, & it still looks like a storm will be intensifying right over us late tonight into tomorrow morning. This should serve to deliver the biggest snow of the season, which is not saying much, but what will likely make it worse will be the timing of temperatures dropping below freezing, & some moderate to heavy snow falling making the morning commute a real mess! There may even be a little thunder snow! Very strong vort max (upper low) pushing in, with significant rising motions should spell a burst of snow tomorrow morning for many. At this time, I believe a good 2 to 6", if not a bit more over the high terrain, will fall throughout WNY on our Friday. Synoptic snows will slowly transition to some lake snows tomorrow afternoon, as the colder air deepens across the region. Temperatures will be falling into the 20s during the day, & winds will blow between 20 & 30 mph with some higher gusts, which will add some blowing & drifting to the mix & wind chills will plummet into the single digits & teens. Ouch! Travel will likely be difficult through much of tomorrow with the worst commute being the morning one. Plan accordingly if you have to venture out between 5 & 10am, especially. Bitterly cold air will be with us later Friday night through the weekend with highs struggling to hit 20 Saturday & most likely not getting out of the teens Sunday. Limited lake snows will fly Friday night into Saturday, but tend to dry up as Saturday progresses thanks to a strong ridge building in from the northwest.

    We will thaw out Monday & much of Tuesday, before some more Arctic air tries to blow in for the middle & end of next week with more chances of lake snow & general snows. Old Man Winter is back!

    Have a great day & be careful out there tomorrow!

    John

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  19. Brandon in FarmingtonJanuary 12, 2012 at 12:23 PM

    Where has the NWS upped anything? I just looked through the hole discussion over there and they have us at 2"-3" through all of tomorrow and we all know they are repeatedly high with there forecasts. I would prefer no snowfall over this as it will serve no purpose but to encourage the road crews to dump 10 times more salt on the road than is necessary. I guess we just have to sit back and wait some more for a real storm.

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  20. Early this morning they had posted 1-3 and then changed it to 3-5 around 10 this morning

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  21. Michele in penfieldJanuary 12, 2012 at 12:32 PM

    I'm wondering if there are relatively few comments about the storm b/c of the newly designed webpage. I have been having a difficult time seeing the blogs on my pc (just see a blank page). Luckily I discovered things work fine on an iPad, so I can still get my weatherblog fix! Lol! It could be just my pc.........anyone else notice anything different? Looking forward to some snow tomorrow, although I must admit enjoying a round of golf yesterday was a nice "treat" in January!

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  22. This is a hard webpage to load... And the .net doesnt help.

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  23. Brandon in FarmingtonJanuary 12, 2012 at 1:00 PM

    I too am having all sorts of problems getting on this page as well. And again, where specifically on the NWS page does it say 3"-5" OTHER THAN IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE LAKES? Rochester and surrounding communities do not fall in this criteria.

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  24. You have to add a hyphen: weather-blog to make it work. Took me a while to figure out why my bookmark wasn't working anymore. I'm assuming that's why the blog has been so quiet considering we are actually going to get some snow! Where's Charles? Hamlin Snow Plow Guy? I'm even starting to miss the snarky remarks from people, at least it's an entertaining read!!

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  25. Michele in penfieldJanuary 12, 2012 at 2:04 PM

    @ anonymous. Once I click on the comments under the day blog, I see that the address has the weather-blog (hyphen) but still don't see anything.......won't be able to check at work if I don't figure it out. I think forecasters will be patient to give exact amounts cause this system is so complex. I am guessing 3 inches.....from a non expert opinion. Hope to see more though.

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  26. Weather Channel says 6-10...

    http://www.weather.com/weather/today/Rochester+NY+USNY1232

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  27. I see 1-3" on NWS

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  28. Who knows. The Low looks pretty cool on Radar though..

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  29. From NWS website,...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM
    EST FRIDAY...

    * LOCATIONS...ALL OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN
    TIER.

    * TIMING...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

    * HAZARDS...SNOW.

    * ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH OR LESS OVERNIGHT...3 TO 5 INCHES
    FRIDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS FRIDAY EVENING...LEADING TO STORM
    TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.

    * WINDS...WEST 25 TO 35 MPH.



    That's where I got it.....When I got up it said 1 - 3 and they have since raised it.

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  30. Finally some snow! yay

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  31. I think I like this chance. My gut says we double our year to date snowfall by tomorrow afternoon. Not real happy with the potential timing... going to be accidents all over the place during the morning commute.

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