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Monday, January 9

SHOVEL? WHO NEEDS IT?

Written By: Scott Hetsko

We are now about 30" below that normal amount of snow we would see in an average winter to this date. There are some signs of a change however as both the AO and NAO have been trending toward neutral and forecasts have them both in the negative range in the next 7 days. The NAO has been positive since October and so has our average temperature.

Since November first, we have been 5 degrees above normal in Rochester! That's consistent with a positive NAO and La Nina working together. Colder air will return beginning Thursday night and continue right through the weekend. Long range data at this point suggests colder to much colder than average temperatures from January 15th-21st. We'll see!

45 comments:

  1. Scott do you see LES potential for any places in our viewing area this weekend?

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  2. Scott,
    Thanks for the update! I know it's way out there, but I see there is a chance of LES forming on a SW flow initially on Friday. Do you see that flow veering enough to give Rochester a chance of LES later Friday and / or Saturday? Or, will there be factors working against it, like dry air working in, or shear etc.? Thanks.

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  3. I'd like to wait until Wednesday until I talk about the lake effect potential especially given that last go around. I will update then!

    Scott

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  4. I was just looking at the 14 day forecast for the NAO--it is predicted to stay +. How does that translate to much below ave temps 1/15- 1/21?
    Doesn't seem like it will be as nice as past few days for a while but bitter cold doesn't seem to be out there either (other than a day or two).

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  5. IT LOOKS LIKE ALL THE SNOW IS IN ALASKA. THERE IS ONE TOWN THAT HAS HAD 18FT OF SNOW ALREADY. THE TOWN IS CORDOVA AND THE ARTICLE IS ON CNN.COM. PRETTY NEAT. I AM VERY JEALOUS.

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  6. I didn't say bitter cold, I said a return to more normal cold air around here.

    Scott

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  7. THE NWS STATES THAT THEY DO NOT KNOW THE WIND DIRECTION FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THE GFS AND EURO SHOWS A WNW DIRTECTION WHILE THE GES SHOWS A SW/W. EITHER DIRECTION DOES NOT HIT ROCHESTER HARD EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN SUBURBS OF MONORE INTO WAYNE IF THE WINDS ARE WNW. IS THAT CORRECT SCOTT?

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  8. I READ THE NWS OUT OF BINGHAMPTON WHO STATES THAT THE WINDS WILL BE WSW. THE NWS OUT OF ALBANY STATES THE WINDS WILL BE NW. THEY ALL STATE SOMETHING DIFFERENT. IT IS VERY CONFUSING SINCE THEY ARE ALL LOOKING AT THE SAME MODELS BUT STATING SOMETHING DIFFERENT.

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  9. All I know is I have a 2 1/2 year old and a soon to be 5 year old boys and they are looking forward to sledding and snowmen. When we got the dusting the other morning the 2 year old was all excited saying snowman.
    Ray
    Brockport

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  10. weather Dan - a question -
    I read you frequently - I notice the all CAPS vs non-CAPS style - is the all CAPS to denote that you are screaming ? Because it wouldn't surprise me as you seem to have weather related meltdowns quite frequently.

    S. Freud

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  11. Scott, are you thinking on adjusting your temperatures for this upcoming weekend into next week? I know its a couple days out, but the models are hinting at some decently cold air!

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  12. I like them at this point. The two primary long range data is battling over a chunk of Arctic air which will be diving into the Northeast next week. GFS has us in some bitter cold air late next week while EURO has us warming up.

    Scott

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  13. What are your thoughts at this point? Do you think the Arctic air prevails and keeps its grip in our neck of the woods for awhile? I will also give you the credit you deserve when you said back in December that the pattern should change around mid-January. That was a good call!

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  14. Scott do you think that there is any chance for icing with the storm on Thursday instead of rain. I am concerned it is trending more colder?

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  15. I do think a shot of Arctic air will arrive next week. Temperatures from Jan 13-20 should be at to below average. There could be 2-3 days with temperatures in the teens and lake snows next week. Too far out to know at this point. As for the threat of ice of Thursday, chances are low. Rain showers to snow showers is best bet.

    Scott

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  16. Thanks for the quick response Scott look forward to Wednesday and your take on the potential LES this weekend.

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  17. In the spirit of a possible negative NAO on the horizon, I thought I'd post this:
    http://www.cep.rutgers.edu/~oman/NAO.htm

    I found it very informative, and it was especially cool to look at the daily NAO index vs. snowfall/temps. I'll be back when there is something to talk about :)

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  18. Quiet & unseasonably mild through Wednesday, but later tomorrow evening there could very well be a brief period of snow/mix at the onset of the precipitation with the storm coming up from the South. The hills south could pick up a slushy minor accumulation, while most of us will see little, if any, as the precipitation type should flip to rain pretty quickly. Rains will slowly taper Thursday with temperatures in the 40s again. Late Thursday night into Friday a strong cold front with a strengthening storm to the northwest will blow through with some snow showers & lake snows developing for Friday east-northeast of Erie, which could impact at least parts of the viewing area. Later Friday night into early Saturday a reinforcing cold front will dive through with some snow showers & limited lake snows should follow that for Saturday. A bit of lingering lake snow could still be around Saturday night into Sunday with light northeast flow. Either way, it will turn wintry (like January) at the end of the week into the weekend. As Scott, said GFS still advertising Arctic air later next week. Could get interesting...

    Have a great night everyone!

    John

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  19. SO IT SOUNDS LIKE THE LAKE EFFECT WILL NOT BE A BIG DEAL AT ALL FROM JOHNS STATEMENT ABOVE IF I AM INTERPRETATING IT CORRECTLY? I SEE NO STORMS NEXT WEEK EITHER EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE COLD AIR. WHAT DO YOU GUYS THINK?

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  20. I think you wouldn't be able to see what common intelligence looks like even if it was staring you in the face. BTW, your caps are annoying.

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  21. Nothing weatherdan nothing so you can continue to wait for nothing. Winter is done!

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  22. Anonymous who continues to throw out nasty comments, could you please get off this blog. Grow up!!!!!

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  23. weatherdan - you have been promoted to weather douche - I vote for you to leave the blog. you are always annoying and whiny. Move to the town in Alaska where they got the 18 feet of snow and build an igloo

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  24. It is going to get warm at the end of January. We will set the record for the least amount of snow this winter. Even if we get events in February 30 inches for the month is a lot not going to happen. A horrible winter for snow lovers all along the east coast.

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  25. Weatherdan - I think you have several fans, Not just one. Maybe we should change the name of the blog to "the ch.8 weather(dan)blog".

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  26. Well anonymous, you are very rude and obnoxious. I vote that you leave the blog since you are a moron. No-one listens to your idiotic comments. Get a life. You know nothing about weather that is obvious. All you can do is throw out nasty comments since you are obviously unhappy in life. I will pray for you.

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  27. Did any of you see the NWS talking about a significant synoptic storm Thursday night into Friday. Where did that come from? Do any of you see that?

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  28. I didnt see that? where?

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  29. Michele in PenfieldJanuary 11, 2012 at 8:45 AM

    From the NWS this morning.........keep your fingers crossed!!!

    COLD AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM
    FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY
    NIGHT AS THIS LOW INTENSIFIES....POTENTIALLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
    SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL EVENT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW
    PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ARE
    CONFIRMED WITH ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWING BROAD MID-LEVEL ASCENT
    OVER THE REGION NOT SURPRISINGLY BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A STRONG AREA
    OF OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AS THIS COLD FRONTAL BAND LIFTS
    ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. FACTOR IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
    WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR GALES ALONG
    WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...AS FLOW BELOW
    THE INVERSION REMAINS REASONABLY WELL ALIGNED. WE COULD SEE
    SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLS ACROSS THE REGION AS A WHOLE WITH THE
    SYNOPTICALLY GENERATED SNOW WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF THE
    LAKES COURTESY OF MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT.

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  30. Mark in FarmingtonJanuary 11, 2012 at 9:00 AM

    where did that all come from all of a sudden? thought everyone was convinced it was too warm and would be all rain? sounds too good to be true. are you messing with us Michelle?

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  31. This is a surprise the NWS has not been good. Interested in what our experts at News 8 think?

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  32. I do not want to put a damper on things but it is going to be mostly rain Thurday and Thursday night. Not sure what NWS is seeing but temps. will be in the 40's. I hope I am wrong but see nothing in the models to change it for us. Northern NY may be a different story.

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  33. Yes, there is some hope for snow fans, as we should get at least some minor accumulations for all Friday through the weekend, with maybe even more than that late Thursday night into Friday with intensifying storm moving up strong cold front. Significant snowfall late Thursday night into Friday will depend on track of the intensifying storm & arrival of colder air. The timing will be HUGE!! Don't get too excited just yet, but it's something worth watching for sure! A lot has to go right for us to get nailed here, but there's POTENTIAL. Boy are we due! Stay tuned.

    Come the weekend we will contend with much colder air, some limited lake snows & at least minor accumulations Saturday & Sunday. Highs over the weekend will be in the mid to upper 20s Saturday & struggling to hit the 20s on Sunday!

    Have a great day all!

    John

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  34. Michele in PenfieldJanuary 11, 2012 at 9:32 AM

    Just saw this in the Forecast Discussion on the www.wbuf.noaa.gov. I am thinking they were talking about Thursday night into Friday.

    There are also Winter Weather Advisory's posted for northeast of us...........not sure if what that means. The Forecast Discussion for this morning also includes talk of Lake Effect but they aren't committing to anything yet.

    I hope we can get some snow out of this, but if we don't, oh well!

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  35. What does David think of this potential?

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  36. NWS definitely sounds convinced that after the initial rain and mix tonight through thursday afternoon, the low will strenghten and as it moves over us could potentially drop some significant snow....at this point even 3-6 inches would be significant for us since we have not seen much all winter long. I hope they are right. No met in town has discussed on camera this event happening, so i guess they are cautious since this setup might not happen. Hope it does! NWS out of Bing says maybe an inch thursday night because of same sytems Buffalo is dicussing.

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  37. I do not see the cold air in place for tomorrow night into Friday. Waiting to hear what scott thinks about the NWS statement.

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  38. I feel like this came out of no where...

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  39. I agree....John mentioned earlier in blog that there is the "potential" for some decent synoptic snow, but he was cautious to say that all the ingredients have to be there. our luck is that they won't be. I hope something does happen and we can see a few or more inches out of this, maybe perhaps to cover the grass for the first time this year in farmington!

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  40. Can't really blame the mets for being cautious!! They get pretty beat up on here and elsewhere when things don't go the way they thought!!

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  41. Could be something brewing here. Looks like a low is coming from the gulf and merges with a disturbance from Cananda and moves east to the coast a bit. There could be some good lake enhancement with this system. I think John said it earlier timing will be the key. Something to keep an eye on today.

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  42. This LP is going to be a great lakes cutter how are we not going to be all rain here for the majority of precipitation? Scott please chime in on what you think?

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  43. Andrew, another low pressure is gonna ride up along the front that cutter brings through, which then stalls out a bit. At least thats what I think. Plus, its not really a cutter storm. It looks like a LP originating from the north joining forces with the LP from the south almost as a double barrel low, except the one from the north wins out on all the precip. Again, I'm no meteorologist, but thats what it looks like from what I'm seeing.

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  44. With the type of winter that was forecasted by nearly everyone, to the lake effect bust last week, no wonder the mets are being very cautious. Its not even wise to throw the word "potential" out there anymore. Don't blame them.

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