Big Time Winds Tonight
Written by John DiPasquale:
Snows late last night & early this morning did not materialize due to less forcing by developing storm to the southwest. We are always taught in the world of meteorology to never trust a warm front, & this case was no different. Sometimes they can sneak up on you, & sometimes there effects with regards to precipitation can not materialize.
Now the big weather story for tonight into the start of tomorrow will be the howling, possibly damaging wind gusts of 60 mph or greater! As the storm deepens & moves over New England tonight the air will try to catch up to the departing storm & that will mean big time winds & colder air. That colder air will cause any leftover rains to flip to snow showers & limited lake snows later tonight into Saturday. At this point, I believe there will be a general coating to an inch or two of snow for most by daybreak Saturday. On Saturday, an additional 1 to 3 or 4" should fall for many, with possibly a bit more in the most persistent snows over Wayne County. So with that being said, a general 2 to 5" of snow should be on the ground, but blown all around too, between midnight tonight & day's end tomorrow. A few areas of Wayne County, though, may get a bit more.
Late tomorrow into Saturday night lake snows will end & we should get some sun out for the tail end of the weekend. Temperatures will be in the upper 20s & low 30s Saturday, but wind chills will be down in the single digits & teens with wind gusts remaining over 40 through the morning, before relaxing a bit more later in the afternoon. On Sunday, highs will be up around 30 once again, but little wind will exist so it will feel much better.
Have a great afternoon & weekend bloggers!
All together now! BUSTEDDDDDDDDD
ReplyDeleteYesterday Scott was saying significant lake snows for us Friday night and Saturday. What changed so quickly to give us a forecast of a whopping 1-2 inches now??? Not good.
ReplyDeleteThe winds are too strong for significant LES for anyone ( something "The Expert" predicted earlier in the week. Watch the strong winds witht his system as it strengthens through the St. Lawrence valley. Listen this has been a non-winter for snow and that will continue into March. Where is Scott with a post about what happened last night and with the significant possible LES? He was pretty sure about the 2-4 last night while finally the usually wrong and over hyped other channel had it right. He predicted an inch or two for most. Follow "The Expert" he has the accuracy but many want to be angry with him instead of giving him kudos.
ReplyDeleteoh expert, i wish i was as perfect as you are. you always seem to have the right answer and a reason why everyone is wrong...you must be the most perfect person in this world
ReplyDeleteHigh wind warning in effect tonight for all areas.
ReplyDeleteOk thank you above anon. for recognizing my being perfect thought it would never happen. Now like the Hamlin Plower did I am going to go out on a limb in a risk that I may be eating crow next weekend. I "The Expert" believe late next week and weekend will be interesting times around western NY. There will be a big storm with a HP to the north that will feed in cold air and we will get a BIG snowstorm with a foot to foot and a half of snow. This will include wrap around snow from the storm and lake enhancement. Keep an eye on it starting Wednesday. "The Expert"
ReplyDeleteThis blog has become a huge joke. Hopefully Scott and the team will take it down eventually.
ReplyDeletethis is as good as its going to get on this blog, at east the expert is giving us something to talk about because there sure isn't anything else to discuss in terms of winter weather. its pretty sad that we get all excited about some potential lake effect that will probably be around an inch for us in farmington. i had high hopes for this winter back in the fall. i took my snow tires off my truck like a month ago i can't believe it!
ReplyDeleteScott please corrct me if I am wrong. But this high wind potential is not a joke. These winds could exceed 60 mph and could do some real damage? I know you are not an alarmist but this low will deepen and strengthen as it moves towrds NE. It will be really strong? what do you think and is that why the LES will be minimal the sheer is too fast?
ReplyDeleteI WAS WRONG. I DO NOT consider only 2" in Hamlin thursday night VERY SNOWY. SORRY if i got anyones hopes up, I KNOW MINE WHERE.
ReplyDeleteAdrew good job pointing out earlier that the WINDS WILL BE VERY SIGNIFICANT. Like John said, most likely the most significant part of the whole event.
I AM DONE WITH THIS WINTER AND DONE WITH THIS BLOG PAGE, BEEN FUN. ENOUGH IS ENOUGH. HAMLIN PLOWER
Who really cares, its snow and no one here can control rates, amts. etc. Find something else to do than try to make up how you think it might snow. Let Mother Nature due her job!
ReplyDeleteThanks Hamlin! Do not leave the blog because of one persons negativity. Anon. is not happy with life. Wants credit for what? You contribute in a positive way do not leave Hamlin. Anon. will be eating crow next weekend and lets see if he/she is big enough to admit they were wrong when nothing happens next weekend. I am a tad worried about the strong winds what does Scott think?
ReplyDeleteMother Nature she realy "Blows", this winter "sucks".
ReplyDeleteHey Hamlin, Andrew is right, don't take off. We will get a good one at some point!! The wind is blowing like.....well, I better behave ;) Let's just say, I am ready for the power to go out down here in the hills of Livingston county!! Like other snow lovers, I wish there was snow with it!! Time will tell.
ReplyDeleteChris
I guess Scott does not think the winds are a big concern. I asked what he thought and he did not respond. Probably mad at the blog but only one is being negative the rest just want winter weather.
ReplyDeleteWell guys, I am done with this blog until next winter. This extended fall is done and winter never arrived. The next several storms look to cut to our west and give us rain. The pattern change that all the channels mets stated would happen never did. I think they were all fooled this winter. 47" of snow is the lowest amount I have seen in my lifetime living in Rochester. It has been an historical winter as one of the mildest and snowless ones in Rochesters history. I still think channel 8 is the most accurate but they need to stop doing winter forecasts because they have been completely wrong the last 2 winters, especailly this one. I hope we have a nice DRY spring and HOT summer. I hope next winter actually acts like winter and we get some storms around her. Have a great spring and summer everyone. Be safe.
ReplyDeletePeak gusts tonight between 45-65 mph. Some power outages are now coming in to the newsroom with RG and E reporting 3,000 w/o tonight. Lake effect snow will only be sizable well Southwest and East-Northeast on Saturday. By the time the wind dies down, dry air will be working into the area tomorrow afternoon. I would say about 1-2" for Rochester with a little more in NW to SE bands depending on where they set up. To all those who are upset about missing out on snow last night, I won't apologize for my forecast. It's weather and I won't always get it right. Have a great weekend everyone, I personally can't wait for it myself!
ReplyDeleteScott
No power in gates for about 1.5 hours. RGE estimated we'd be out for 4 hours so good for them. House was getting cold fast.
ReplyDeleteI hate to admit it but ever since that Spanish company took over RGE the service has been MUCH better. Fewer outages, and when one happens MUCH better response. Also notice guys out doing preventative line maintenance--what a concept in modern USA---prevent a disaster rather than respond to one. Unheard of!!
Happy to see snow won't be much this weekend.
Well, look at it this way.....If this is "the least snowiest" some of us have ever seen, that in my opinion is extreme weather. May not be the extreme many of us are looking for, but none the less, impressive. I think this is the least snowiest and warmest I can remember (I'm 39). I need the snow/ice to make a living, like some here. With that said, I would love to see it snow more. But, I will take what I can get and make lemonade out of lemons. Hamlin/Weatherdan, don't go away! Your posts are interesting and an asset here, unlike others.
ReplyDeleteLater all!
JM
Snowing hard on the westside right now! Easily have 3" from this rogue band that set up!
ReplyDeleteSnowing really good here in Farmington for the past hour or so and doesn't seem to be letting up... So nice to see:)
ReplyDelete3+ on west side--so far. No big deal is turning into one. It is not letting up.
ReplyDeleteI'm not wishcasting, but we need to watch the end of next week as two lows look to meet up, hopefully east of us!
ReplyDeletethe expert had pointed that out earlier this week also
ReplyDeleteThats funny, cause the expert also called for no snow this weekend...
ReplyDeletetrue...i dont think any of the mets thought that band would sewt up like it did ovr farmington where i am. we got slammed for a few hours
ReplyDeletei hope everyone is right and we do see a late winter storm next weekend...the nice thing is that it would melt within a few days
ReplyDeleteI am done on this blog because most you hold me to a different standard. I believe my blogs were accurate for this weekend. I do hope all of you snow lovers get a big snowstorm next weekend as I did say yesterday. Just keep an eye on it and maybe it will be too far east for us. But I will watch the blog from a far. "The not self proclaimed Expert"
ReplyDeleteyou don't need to leave, just don't be so cocky about being right etc. I come to this blog to get info on he weather that you can't get on tv. I like to know whats happening before msot other people do. if you have knowledge and somethng to offer that we can benefit from i wish you could do it in a more civilized fair way. stick around. Andrew had a rebirth and it worked out great.
ReplyDeleteIt would be nice to see that big snowstorm us snowlovers keep hoping for, BUT week after week we are disappointed with a possible storm only to be let down. Winter is over in my book, bring on the 60's and 70's...80's would be grand also.
ReplyDeleteDid get the winds a bit correct this past storm but can not get a snow storm right. But, think we do have to keep an eye on late next week and weekend. Looks now like it may be too far east of us but cny looks like they could get decent snows. Still of course way to early but maybe it will work out for wny getting a good 6-10 inch snowfall. Hope the people on the forum continue to communicate and not let anyone get you frustrated including the awful winter.
ReplyDeleteits just so far away to be able to predict, i wish there was more concrete evidence. its exhausting getting your hopes up week after week. at least the storm is trending east and not way west of us
ReplyDeleteanonymous imean EXPERT dont leave yet we have to watch your forecast become a big bust like the last weeks. i want to see if you will eat crow or just make up some a reason for being wrong. dont leave until yet another storm misses the area. you said it best and YOU TO MOST BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE for your one week forecast. will you eat crow idont think so
ReplyDeletecome on folks....woudn't it be great if he/she were right though? i would love a big ole nor easter where it snows all day. just once this winter. saturday mornings snow was nice, but short lived
ReplyDeleteSorry there is nothing there folks. Andrew and expert must be looking at something created in never never land. Every model has a storm way south and east of us. It will be March shortly and no pattern change guarantees us not one big storm this winter. Like many on the blog it is time to look ahead to the spring.
ReplyDeleteAnon. I am not sure about that. I know others are tired of a horrible winter and the negativity but what do any of you think? Particularly weatherguy you posted something earlier about a possible storm? The temperaturs on all the models are coming in colder. I know the 50s were predicted mid week but that may change. I do not think it is all rain Wednesday and worry about possible ice if it does not change over. What do the local mets think?
ReplyDeletethe NWS mentioned something about possible ice in their forecast. was too far out for them to be sure but it was mentioned at least. they also mentioned the next system for friday saturday could be significant and something to watch so whoever said there is nothing there you never know. its too far out. id rather have hope than decide right now that nothing will happen.
ReplyDelete