More Wet Snow Late Tonight
After a slushy coating to 3 or 4" of snow last night, today will be mainly quiet with intervals of sun. However, as advertised, we will be picking up some additional wet snow late tonight & very early Friday before it all likely changes to mainly, occasional rain for the majority of tomorrow. Later in the afternoon as the storm winds up as it moves into Northern New York/St. Lawrence Seaway, colder air with gusty winds will move back in & change any rains leftover back to snow showers. So with the change to rain likely to occur sometime between 5 & 8 for most, the morning commute should be a sloppy, slick one, & then with it turning colder & rain going back over to snow during the mid to late afternoon, the evening rush may get a little dicey too. I am not expecting much snow Friday, but there could be a slushy coating to an inch or two later in the afternoon into ride home.
Colder air will continue to rush in Friday night on gusty west-northwest winds, which ultimately will likely lead to lake enhancement of general snow showers & eventually more lake snow than anything else late Friday night into Saturday. At this time, it looks like at least a 1 to 4 or 2 to 5" snowfall will occur Friday night, with a few spots in the most persistent snows getting a little more. On Saturday, another 1 to 4 or 2 to 5" should fall, with higher amounts possible in the most persistent snows. Everything will quiet down later Saturday night into Sunday with some sun returning to end the weekend.
Have a great night bloggers, & stay tuned for Chief Meteorologist Scott Hetsko's update regarding this storm this evening.
Well I do not want to say I told you so but I told you so. The LP will track to our NW as I predicted thus we will get more rain than snow tomorrow. It is called climatology and will continue through the rest of this wonderful winter. Now the blog will be quiet for a good period. Sorry as Hamlin called me "The Expert" was right again. But it is good to be right. Thank you Hanlin for eating crow. "The Expert"
ReplyDeleteEATING CROW, I wonder if that tastes anything chicken or maybe turkey I like both of those birds; Anyway, ITS NOT GOING TO WORK ANONYMOUS, I refuse to negative blog with you anymore. I hope you had a good day and will enjoy the rest of your evening. I have enjoyed today and will continue to enjoy this evening. The sun is shinning and it is very pleasent. Scott, what are your thoughts on tonights weather. The 12z Nam had low almost directly over head, which would lead to more snow with a later change over to a more of a scattered showers than rain event before back over to snow. 18z has storm more west change over quicker more rain than just scattered showers. It is less than 12 hours away and no two model runs have agreed. Both model runs still suggest some lake enhanced and then just plain lake effect. AT this time i am leaning towards the low travelling overhead instead of to the west, which leads to alittle more snow and a more of a showery friday. John gave us his thoughts, but I would also like to know your thoughts. John forecast didnt have 18Z model data handy, Thankyou.
ReplyDeleteExpert, your incorrect! It is not tracking northwest, its tracking over us and its not going to be all rain as you "predicted" before. You were being negative and happened to get lucky that the storm didn't track as far south as advertised! So go eat some humble pie and don't take credit for something you didn't call in the first place!
ReplyDeleteJUST LOOKED AT 18Z GFS RUN. LOOKING LIKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK BOTH MODELS NAM AND GFS.VERY EXCITING WHERE WILL THIS LOW TRACK DOES ANYONE REALLY KNOW.
ReplyDeleteWho cares about the LOW. lake effect snow watch kids. Sorry south of the thruway.
ReplyDelete2-4" overnight then a change to rain. Showers and windy midday Friday to lake snow Friday night and Saturday. Locally significant lake snows around and cold.
ReplyDeleteScott
Again you give "The Expert" no credit. It is not going south and east of us as Hamlin and you weatherguy said it would. You guys claimed it would be a BIG snowfall NOT! Weatherguy at least Hamlin admits when he is wrong maybe you can follow. Would you care to venture where the significant lake snows will be? It will not be north of the thruway or in the city. It will be towards Buffalo and east. Again Wayne county be ready. Weatherguy when is your next wishcasting BIG SNOWSTORM coming?
ReplyDeleteexpert, you are a rotten person that has no place on this blog, kind of like one of the guys was last year, but then they started to realize they were being a jerk and started to actually be helpful and not negative. How long will it take you to figure this out? I care to venture that you will never figure it out. I don't find your input helpful or insightful, where are you getting your data?
ReplyDeleteThanks Scott.
ReplyDeleteDavid, yes i am very excited about possible lake snows Friday night and Saturday could this be like last lake snow event, MOST areas north got BIG TOTALS not only Wayne county.
Two consecutive night with upto 4" possible in the Rochester area, with a LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH for the area to follow. I would consider this "VERY SNOWY" and "VERY INTERESTING" for the "END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND".
P.S. Turns out I dont care for the taste of "CROW".
David, good to see you back! I have been staying away from posting but I read a lot of the posts. Good comedy to take in!! This winter must be killing the buisness for you!! I will have to pop on tomorrow and post what we get down this way south of 90. It will be a fun drive in tomorrow. I will count the cars off of 390!! That's always fun. Also, I would like to say hello to Andrew. I saw you.mentioned me in a previous post. I am still here, I just observe ;) Happy Blogin' ya'll!!
ReplyDeleteChris
1st of all anon., I never claimed big snowfall, i only pointed out the potential. And second of all, stop calling people out, its no fun here. No one is wishcasting, were simply speculating on snow potentials, which is why this blog is here!
ReplyDeleteTo Anonymous or as you call yorself the "EXPERT". I am going to ask you RESPECTFULLY, please carefully read over past Blogs That I HAMLIN PLOWER typed on the Friday, FEB 17 blog page. I DONT APRECIATE YOUR CONTINUAL SLAMING OF MY FORECASTED OPINION. Past blog pages DO NOT LIE.
ReplyDeleteAfter reading my blogs HONESTLY tell me how wrong have i really been. YES IT WAS NOT ALL CORRECT, but not as bad as YOU MAKE IT SOUND.
JUST ALITTLE COMMON COURTESY BETWEEN BLOGGERS IS ALL WE ARE ASKING FOR.
Thank you Scott for the concise answer and for sticking to the weather. I read this blog every day even though I haven't posted since maybe December since this winter is a bust. Perhaps everyone is grumpy about it and that's what is going on, but it is hardly even fun to read the blog anymore. You guys sound like students I used to teach when they would realize I was waiting for them to stop talking..."shut up", "you shut up", "no you shut up", "shut up!" - all the while contributing to the problem they were trying to solve. Situational irony at its worst. Let's talk about the weather and stop responding to disrespectful comments and this blog will go back to being fun...next winter when we get some weather. Me, I'm ready for some nice thunderstorms and some warmer temps. I'm so fatigued by this winter I only have been to the mountains once all season, they just don't have the same appeal unless it's snowy and cold. On a happier note, last night's snow was very beautiful at times, some of the biggest flakes I've ever seen. Maybe tonight will be similar. :)
ReplyDeleteChris it is good to see you are still around. I learned to be positive on the blog it is more conducive to interesting blogging. Unfortunately it has not led to a big storm in our area. Hopefully it will come in March. I do think as I posted before that the winds will get strong tomorrow afternoon. I still do think we could get real good LES tomorrow night into Saturday in certain areas including the metro. We will have to wait and see. Maybe the storm will at the last minute shift south and stay all snow tomorrow. If I am not correct I am sure it will be pointed out by anon.
ReplyDeleteGuys, just ignore anonymous. He is obviously on here to be nasty to other people. Do not respond to him/her and they will hopefully go away. Hamlin keep posting your thoughts. A blog is for people to post their thoughts without being victimized by nasty and degrading comments.
ReplyDeleteyou are correct weatherdan...i got sucked into his negativety and coudn't help mysef a couple posts ago...i plan to ignore from here on out...
ReplyDeleteHamlin, don't let this toolbox get to you! You are a much bigger asset to this blog. I think "the expert" is just backed up, if you know what I mean. BTW, anybody that forecasted snow for end of this week into the weekend, KUDOS to you. That forecast was the most accurate one! You guys rule, "the expert" AKA "Mr. Hanky" does not.
ReplyDeleteJM
oops, I just participated in the degrading comments. SORRY!
ReplyDeleteJM
Let's all stay friendly here on the blog. We love updating everyone on here but we'd rather have considerate people writing. I like to see some of the friendships that have developed here. Latest 9 p.m. obs show radiational cooling has dropped temperatures below freezing for most at this hour. Isentropic lift has resulted in moderate to heavy rain to break out in central PA. I remain confident in our forecast except to say that the Southern Tier may get a bit more snow overnight before the changeover.
ReplyDeleteIt won't matter by 8 tomorrow morning when all the milder air surges North. Lake effect snow will be significant North on Friday night and Saturday.
Scott
I would be interested to know how much our total snowfall for the season is in the southerntier. We certainly have not cashed in on the lake snow as Rochester has. This season has been pathetic for us.
ReplyDeleteI am looking at that rain heading for the NY border, if that turns over to snow we could get 4+ inch snow rates in that band. I am hoping that it makes it to Rochester
ReplyDeletesc ott, you mentioned possibly more snow for the southiern tier in your post above, but on your broadcast at 10 you had them in the 1-2 inch range. i was just confused...did you mean maybe more than the 1-2 you thought or they would maybe get more than the 2-4 we are supposed to get. does not matter as you mentioned it will melt fast as it did today. thanks for the good work.
ReplyDeleteI didn't change the graphic because I'm still on the fence. Some may get 3-4" down there depending on how far North that heavy band moves.
ReplyDeleteScott
It does not look good for much snow. The NWS already took any accumulation to nothing for Rochester. Erie, Dunkirk is all rain already. I think we will be lucky to see an inch before it changes to rain.
ReplyDelete2-6 is not going to happen. The band is also very narrow and unimpressive.
ReplyDeleteComplete bust!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteThey even took the Lake effect snow watch out for Rochester with hardly any accumulation for tonight and Saturday. The beat goes on.
ReplyDeleteWOW, this winter is Brutal!! I agree with most other now. I am also ready for spring!! I am done with this winter!!
ReplyDeleteHamlin, I would not even call this winter, WINTER. To me it has been a very long fall. Next week looks mild and rainy. Winter never arrived this year.
ReplyDeleteWell again at least you can admit that "The Expert" as a blogger labeled me was right on with his predictions. It looks like a dusting out there this morning. Also forget any significant LES tonight and Saturday. Even Rochester's most accurate missed this one. Lets move to spring asap. Thanks being positive now just give me some kudos on my accuracy. "The Expert"
ReplyDeleteHello where is everyone? Hamlin where are you? "Very snowy" & "Very interesting" this weekend? Weatherguy potential big snows? JM who are you and where is my kudos? Again you have to have at a bit of accountability for your posts on here. Early in the week I said this would be no BIG deal the same with LES. Said upper NY and Maine/Vermont areas would get hit please check that out. I was the one who was sarcastically called "The Expert" by someone on this blog when I was just saying my opinion based on weather and climatology not model to model wishcasting. So when you guys talk respect check your posts and eat that crow you were talking about Hamlin Plower. "The Expert"
ReplyDeleteso called expert.....Maybe you didn't realize that today is a work day for most people..My guess is everyone is making a living today not blogging. I would rather read the blogs by Hamlin Plower, weatherguy and JM anyday, then your constant crap.
ReplyDeleteHopeful Hilton Snowmobiler
Thanks Hopeful Hilton Snow plower. You might as well put the sleds in storage for the year. This winter is a dud.
Deletethat is Hopeful Hilton Snowmobiler
DeleteExpert, why do you look for the continuous pat on the back from everyone? no one cares that you supposedly were right on with your predictions...and to say that scott wasn't right is down right rude. this is their blog but you seem to think it is yours now. the only real experts here are the real meteorologists and i will continue to listen to them and the other guys on here and not you because at east when they are right they don't throw it in everyones face that got it wrong.
ReplyDelete