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Wednesday, February 22

GOTTA WATCH THOSE SNEAKY LOWS

Written by: Scott Hetsko


Everybody lately has been so focused on Friday and Saturday that we haven't noticed the intense vort that will spin across the area later tonight. Weak cyclogenesis will be occurring here after 9 p.m. which will aid in producing a period of wet snow for most of the area. The timing is great for commuters because most of the wet snow will fall between late tonight and 6 a.m. Thursday.

As you can see on the map, I don't expect a lot of snow but 1-3" possible in most of Monroe County with 2-5" in the higher elevations where the changeover will start sooner tonight. Now on to Friday. As I mentioned before, recent climatology is more reliable than models sometimes and the next one will be primarily a rain maker. There will be colder air and lake effect Friday night and early Saturday. Initially, speed and directional shear will hurt bands developing Friday night but by 5Z Saturday it should be snowing decently North and near Rochester.

25 comments:

  1. Thanks Scott for finally putting this into perspective for all the wishcasters. I get it right yet get harrassed by annoyed in Farmington in a previous post. Again climatology which I mention before tells you rain will happen with the storm. Yet weatherguy, hamlin plower and andrew continue to wishcast and hope. They are all quiet now and sorry annoyed in Farmington thought this was a blog for opinions? Do not get made because I was right when hamlin was continuing to insist it is going to be fun this weekend will be a storm forming. Also calling me an "expert" well at least he is right abouth that! "The Expert".

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  2. holy cow, settle down and put together a coherent sentence, anonymous - you may know soemthing about weather but, the English construction and punctuation blows.

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  3. smoemthing=something - never said I was perfect or even close

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  4. Hi Scott,

    Why would it be all rain when the storm is heading South and East.

    Thanks

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  5. Linsanity your typing blows! Weatherdan why has it rained all winter? Ask weatherguy he thinks the Euro still is on track to give us a good snow.

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  6. True. It is what it is and I do not care anymore. Like I said before bring on Spring. It is sad that we are even talking about 1-3 inches of snow tonight. That is how sad this winter has become. Scott wondered why we are not talking about the snow tonight!!! Come on 1-3 inches is not worthy of talk. Really!!!!

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  7. Friday's storm will track right over us which is why we'll see mainly rain again. As for tonight, 1-3" later tonight, slushy snow fall.

    Scott

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  8. That's it anonymous. Stick to a sentence or two...that is all. your limited mental capacity can handle.

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  9. HUMBLED HAMLIN TOWN PLOWERFebruary 22, 2012 at 6:37 PM

    I havent left the weather blog page YET. Sorry it took so long between blogs anonymous, life is tough it causes us to have to do things like sleep and work, not blog 24-7. Sadly Scots probably right, another near miss. I cant say i am very surprised. The NAM and GFS still cant nail this one and EURO cant make up its mind either. So at this point the best forecast by default would be climatology. What you have seen is probably what you will get. At this point I STILL DONT FEEL SILLY. There is snow in the forecast tonight 3-5 for some. Still time for Fridays forecast to become much snowier , but not likely at this point. THIS WEEKS WEATHER WAS AND STILL IS VERY INTERESTING.
    You can call me a WISHCASTER or what ever you would like. I am still here with no plans of leaving, not perfect, not an "EXPERT" just a weather lover with "SOME" knowledge. Scott Thanks for never "HYPING" it up, it can be very easy to get excited if you truely love the weather.

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  10. I forgot to mension the only thing the NAM and GFS have been consistant with all week was tonight the upper level energy diving south of us. They have both been consistant all week with a 500mbl positive vort max and it track just south , they just failed to show us anything at the surface. Maybe that and the warm forecast temps is why it was overlooked. Even an inch gives me overtime keep it coming mother nature.

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  11. Scott, I just looked out the window and it is currently snowing moderately here in Hamlin. It has change over much earlier than i thought. Is there a possibility that the further north and west, like Northern orleans and Notherthwestern Monroe should be included in that 3-5 forecast. The ground is already snow covered.

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  12. I used to enjoy coming on this blog and reading what everyone had to say about the weather. Now it seems some adults have turned this into a junior high school name calling session. REALLY are we that concerned that someone may have misspelled a word? At this point I am so annoyed with all this childish behavior and I wouldn't blame the weather team for not contributing anymore to the blog. They are professionals and have a passion for what they do...either respect that and their forum or be gone!!!

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  13. fed up with winter and peopleFebruary 22, 2012 at 8:14 PM

    I agree with the above. Everyone is just pissed that we have had no winter and they are getting rude and desperate for some type of snow. I am guity of coming on here also, i aways hope to find some post that states we are going to get nailed. if you don't have something intelligent to say, don't say it at all, its way to easy to put somebody down when you do not have to face them, only having to type. It is starting to sound like a bunch of high schoolers bantering back and forth. keep that in mind "expert". blog about the weather and your opinions, thats fine, but try not to keep acting like your always right and so knowledgeable. others on here think THEY are right, and have their own opinions, that is the whoe point. Just don't be so quick to judge and call everyone wishcasters etc. whats wrong with wishing, its not hurting anyone!

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  14. I Agree 100% Anonymous. Very excited about tonight here in Hamlin I think it could have been under forecasted for areas north of I-90. It looks as if areas north will be in the bullseye. Temperature at 8:00 already 33 deg and slowly falling, with steady to moderate snow already aproaching 1".
    P.S. GO ORANGE WHO KNOWS MAYBE A NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS, but everybody already knows i can tend to get excited a little early LOL.

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  15. Just switched from rain to big flat flakes of beautiful snow in Greece at 8:30 :)

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  16. It is white outside (with monstro flakes) and doesn't show signs of letting up.....Looks white this weekend too! Yahoo!!!!!!!!

    JM

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  17. No snow falling down here in the southern tier! It quit around Avon on my way home! Maybe I will wake up to a little on the ground as I do live in the hills down here. I sold my plow this year to buy a new motor for my truck!! It was a good call :) I hope for everyone here who wants snow, that we do indeed get at least one good storm this year. Some folks rely on snow to make that extra cash!
    Chris

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  18. Biggest snow flakes I have ever seen!!!

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  19. LOVE those BIG flakes outside right now!

    Scott

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  20. I am not sure everyone should give up on this situation. Wait and look at the latest GFS that runs shortly. Scott himself said he feels LES could bring several inches of snow Saturday. He included the city in that possibility. So hang in there Hamlin you never know. I think winds could be strong Saturday.

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  21. Scott good call on the 1-3 for us we had about 2. Just leaving at 3:00 to plow, It has all slushed down to 1 inch or less. Yes Mark, any snow will be very welcome.

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  22. I still think it is funny that the Euro had it right with last weeks storm going way South while the GFS and NAM had a good snowstorm over us. Of course the Euro won out and all the mets chose the euro as the model of choice. This week the euro has us in the sweet spot all week while the GFS/NAM has rain with a track over us. Of course, this time all the mets choose the GFS/NAM as the solution and throw the EUro out. This week the GFS/NAM will win out and give us rain and the Euro loses. What the heck. No matter what, the model that gives us nothing or rain always wins out. We did get a whopping 2 inches last night. Whoo hooo. It will be gone by this afternoon with temps in the 40's. I know I am whining again. Sorry.

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  23. We were forecasted in the 2-5" range last night (Wayland) and only got about 3/4"....we lost AGAIN. Come on spring.

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  24. NO spring for YOU!!! Not yet anyways.

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  25. Good call on the snow--we had about 3" in gates. Very pretty and civilized as it had the decency to melt by noon. Not bad when it is self removing.

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