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Monday, February 20

Sunny, but a Chill Out There Today



Written by John DiPasquale:


A stellar looking day with a seasonable chill in the air. After almost 3" of wet snow over the first half of the weekend, we should not see much snow at all through at least Wednesday. A storm system will hook to the west across the Great Lakes later Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will cause the clouds, wind & temperatures to increase Tuesday. Highs will make the low 40s both Tuesday & Wednesday with scattered rain showers possibly mixed with snow, especially in the hills during the period. Little, if any, accumulation is expected during the period.


A couple of storms will head this way & merge Thursday into Friday, but the big question with this set up for the end of the week will be the track? This will dictate what, & how much precipitation we see to end the week. At this point, it looks like we could start with a little wet snow/icy mix Thursday morning that will flip to drizzle/a little rain Thursday afternoon before changing back & ending as a little snow Friday afternoon behind a strong cold front. Either way, we could very well have some measureable lake snows for some come late Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures look to be much colder this weekend. Stay tuned.


Have a great day & enjoy the sun WNY on this President's Day!


66 comments:

  1. Euro still has a great setup for some wrap around snow and as John mentioned, substantial LES, and with models continuing to hint at cold air making at least one more push toward the lower 48, News 8 may finally be able to have some fun forecasting the next 2-3 weeks!

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  2. Very measureable lake snows for some. We know who that will be east and south. Stay tuned for nothing where are the bloggers about keep an eye on the end of the weekend and next week? Come on wishcasters Andrew, weatherdan, weatherguy and Hamlin Plower!

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  3. Come on weatherguy Euro has been horrible this winter please stop it enjoy the sun!

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  4. I have all summer to enjoy the sun. No whining if we have a cold, wet spring!

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  5. VERY CONFIDENT HAMLIN PLOWERFebruary 20, 2012 at 4:05 PM

    Well i guess i will defend myself even if i dont think it is needed. I SAID THE END OF THIS WEEK GOING INTO NEXT WOULD GET VERY INTERESTING AND SNOWY. POINTING AT FRIDAY-SUNDAY AS AN AREA TO WATCH. I still feel we should keep an eye on Friday and the weekend. HOW IS THIS WISH CASTING. MAYBE PEOPLE SHOULDNT HIDE BEHIND THE TITLE ANONYMOUS in order to say what ever they want. How are my thought of the upcoming weather wrong. It is still almost a week away. DO YOU HAVE A CRYSTAL BALL YOU SHOULD TELL US ABOUT. WE COULD ALL LOOK INTO WITH YOU, boy wouldnt that be fun.
    P.S. WATCH FOR SOME INTERESTING WEATHER THIS WEEKEND SORRY FOR GETTING OUT OF LINE AND NOT WAITING FOR THE PROFESSIONALS.

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  6. I will be watching for rain and then LES snow for the usual favored areas east and south. At least Weatherguy gives the Euro as his evidence howevev that is about as reliable in the longterm as a nercous nelli in a clutch situation.

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  7. that is however and nervous sorry

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  8. It will be brief shot of cold air this weekened and then back in the 40's early next week. Let's face it guys true winter weather that lasts never happend this year and will not. We will get brief incursions with only lake effect that leaves South of the Thruway with nothing. It is what it is. A truly forgetful winter for snowlovers.

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  9. Friendly Hamlin PlowerFebruary 20, 2012 at 5:55 PM

    Well Anonymous is this not going to be an interesting week to watch the weather. Was i wrong to say that. Is it not going to be an active end to the week. Was i wrong to say that. Did you read any of my earlier blog before blogging or did you just type before thinking. Did the last GFS model run not shift again. Didnt i suggest that earlier to. I also suggested an active LES possability this weekend, where any of those suggestions incorrect yet. Do i need to tell you all of the different models and tools that i might use to look at the weather. HAVE YOU ever looked at anything BUT a Surface map. I WILL NOT DEFFEND MY OPIONION ANY MORE THAN THAT. I never thought we were going to get a patern change and i still dont. We are however going to still get winter bursts a few days at a time, starting Friday. Sorry i didnt fill you in on all the models and tools I used to come to that conclusion. Just my opionion. I get paid to take care of the roads not forecast.

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  10. I also wouldnt sell out on Friday yet. Getting a big storm is not out of the question. Wouldn't it be something if a secondary storm formed along the front as the primary storm stalled west or just overhead. Seems like i just typed something like that the other day. Maybe not.

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  11. Boy are you going to look silly Hamlin when we get rain Friday and minor LES snow for most this weekend but you have all the tools. What do your tools say next week? Weatherdan is starting to get it and I think Andrew and Weatherguy are also getting it too. They have been quiet as church mouses lately.

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  12. What does Scott think about this weekend? Does he think it is something to keep an eye on as Hamlin keeps saying? I agree with Hamlin that it could get interesting particularly with the winds. However, I think the heavy snow possibilities are for upper northern NY and Vermont. Have not seen anything from Scott in a while.

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  13. Where has Charles Wachel been? What is he thinking about this weekend? Always like to hear from him. Also, David has not been on here in a long time. I am wondering if he is having problems getting on since they created the new site.

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  14. On other positive notes the maps for growing seasons have been redone and the season us now longer in our area based on 30 years of weather data. Very nice.

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  15. Hey anonymous, the plural of mouse is mice. You should stop forecasting and pick up a 5th grade level grammar book.

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  16. Reading this blog is like episodes of Icarly!! Sounds like a bunch of hens bickering!! So much for folks giving their opinions without being slammed by someone else. I checked the blog in Novemeber and it still seems the same. Have a drink and lighten up people :)
    Chris

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  17. Reading this blog is like episodes of Icarly!! Sounds like a bunch of hens bickering!! So much for folks giving their opinions without being slammed by someone else. I checked the blog in Novemeber and it still seems the same. Have a drink and lighten up people :)
    Chris

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  18. Yes anonymous are you smarter than a 5th grader?

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  19. VERY SILLY HAMLIN PLOWERFebruary 20, 2012 at 9:16 PM

    Look silly for tring to make an allmost imposible long range forecast on a season where nothing is typical of a winter season, I doubt that is silly. Maybe instead i should just sit back and let the weather come to me. The computer models should all have it figured out one or two days ahead of the event. Maybe i should wait until thursday before even suggesting something. Then i could blog in about what everyone already knows. Or better yet i could wait until after its over then i will know exactly what it was going to do. There wont be any chance of being wrong AND FEELING SO SILLY. Will i feel silly if my forecast is way off. I dont think so. In a winter where all storms miss and it typicaly rains it is easier to take the road you have. I prefer to take the road less traveled. Time will tell. STILL HIDING BEHIND THE TITLE ANONYMOUS THAT IS ALITTLE SILLY FOR SOMEONE WITH SO MUCH WISDOM AND SO MUCH TO SAY.

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  20. For anyone who has an opinion and wants to share it, feel free. There isn't anyone out there who is taking a chance of looking more SILLY than i might come next monday. Dont be afraid after all they are just opinions.

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  21. Well Said Hamlin Plower. I hope you are right about the snow coming this weekend. From a very hopeful snowmobiler from Hilton.

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  22. Oh ok opinions are the way to go on the blog. I beleive we will get an all out blizzard that will match up to the 93 superstorm. This will happen by the end of next week. Do not need any or at least a little evidence. It is my opinion and based on this winter we are due for as big one that is my opinion. Sounds a little ridiculous Hamlin Plower.

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  23. Everyone that is being negative, enjoy it while you can. After this week, we won't be hearing much from you as the pattern finally turns our way! Yes, there will be days above freezing and probably above 40, but thats expected this time of year. It's going to turn stormy fast around here and I'm sure we will see snow through April! I would back this up with evidence, but it's going to get shot down by these negative anons regardless so why bother.

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  24. SIGNING OFF HAMLIN PLOWERFebruary 20, 2012 at 10:10 PM

    I BELIEVE I SAID THE WEATHER WAS GOING TO GET VERY INTRERESTING AND SNOWY WITH SOME COLD, DOES THAT MEAN A BLIZZARD NO, DOES THAT MEAN EVEN A BIG SNOW STORM NO, DOES THAT MEAN A BIG STORM IS NOT POSSIBLE NO. DOES THAT MEAN ANYONE HAS TO LISEN TO WHAT I HAVE TO SAY,NO. With that said i think i am finished blogging. I was blogging for something fun to do during the winter because of my love for the weather. I think i can find better things to do with my time than blog to you ANONYMOUS. AT THIS POINT I COULD CARE LESS IF MY THOUGHTS ABOUT THIS WEEKEND ARE CORRECT OR NOT. REMEMBER I GET PAID TO TAKE CARE OF THE ROADS, NOT FORECAST. BUT YOU ANONYMOUS, YOU ARE SO VERY SMART. IF WE COULD ALL BE AS PERFECT AS YOURSELF, I AM SURE WE COULD NAIL EVERY FORECAST, IT WOULD BE SO EASY.

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  25. What do the experts think? Is Scott around or is he on vacation this week? he has not posted in a long time.

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  26. Just saw Scott's forecast and said possibly a few inches Friday night into Saturday. Nothing big and not one mention about an active pattern next week. So again stop wishcasting guys without evidence it gets those crazy snowlovers excited. Then when it does not happen weatherdan whines and whines.

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  27. Also Scott did not even mention LES possibilities this weekend. Also the evidence shows that all the weather factors that are needed to lead to big storms in the east in March will not be there. Please check the predicted NAO and other factors they are not favorable for the east to develop winter storms in the east.

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  28. EPO, WPO, PNA, and NAO not good looking into March. The numbers for these are not favorable for east coast storms. This is evidence weatherguy not just opinions thrown out there to wishcast. So weatherdan you can relax and enjoy the spring and not complain about the winter anymore it is done!

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  29. Cool, bring on baseball and spring and let's hope for a more active 2012-2013 winter.

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  30. ANOTHER cloudy day in Rochester! Will this winter ever end?
    ROCwhine

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  31. Another day of no storms or snow on the horizon. Models look like nothing this weekend unless you are in upper north.

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  32. Im here, nothing going on. Boring Winter... Looking forward to spring...

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  33. Hi All,

    After a little snow & rain over the next 24 to 48 hours from 2 or 3 disturbances, a more important storm will begin taking shape somewhere between near or just west of Buffalo to Souteastern Pennsylvania. That's the BIG question, where exactly will this storm ultimately set up? At this juncture, the GFS has the storm setting up just west & moving overhead later Thursday night into Friday morning with mainly rain Thursday night - early Friday transitioning to snow showers & eventually squalls later Friday & especially Friday night into Saturday. Some accumulations are likely, especially in the most persistent lake snows later Friday through Saturday. However, if you believe the EURO, the storm will be developing near Philly or just west of there, which could very well lead to a mainly snow event, & a significant one at that later Thursday night into Friday. Some significant lake snows would then follow late Friday through Saturday with lots of wind & cold to boot. So either way, we most likely will be seeing some accumulating snows via the lake later Friday into Saturday, but will we pick up some accumulating synoptic snows from the storm? By the way, EURO usually does a great job with these events 3 or 4 days out, & GFS has been trending colder over the last couple of runs...Stay tuned.

    Have a great one Bloggers!

    John

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  34. John - thanks for the update! But, we really don't need a trained meterologist's take on the weather as weather genius "anonymous" has everything covered. So, take an extra coffee break and leave the meterology to the "expert".

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  35. Yes the "expert" is back! The one who does not wishcast but looks at the actual data. The Euro is in fantasy land and the latest GFS shows snow for upper northern NY and into the Maine area. Western NY will get very little synoptic snow and most will get very little LES snow this weekend. Not sure where our wishcasters are today? Come on weatherguy, andrew and hamlin plower where are you guys? Also Scott seems to be absent lately without any posts because he is a realist and knows this is NBD and our winter is done. Thanks

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  36. ANYNONYMOUS YOU ARE BASING YOUR FORECAST ON GFS MODEL RUNS ALONE. THE GFS HASNT FIGURED OUT A SINGLE STORM YET THIS YEAR UNTIL ITS ALMOST OVER. WATCH THE 18Z FORECAST IT WILL BE DIFFERENT THAN THE LAST. I WASNT GOING TO BLOG ANY MORE AND FEED YOUR STUPIDITY, BUT I JUST CANT HELP MYSELF. IT SURE IS AN INTERESTING WEEK IN THE WEATHER OFFICE, WONT YOU AGREE.

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  37. Scott and all other bloggers I am sorry I keep engaging with this anonymous. I am sure by now our going back and forth this way is getting old, but I just cant help myself.

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  38. With last weeks storm the GFS had us in the sweet spot and the Euro and other models had the storm going way South which is what happend. The GFS came in line with the Euro. Will the GFS some in line with the Euro this time and give us a snowstorm or will the GFS win out. My guess is the GFS will win out because, for snow lovers, it always works out negative for us. I know, I will hear I am a whiner. Oh well.
    Hamlin, do not listen to Anonymous. Do not let him/her upset you. Keep posting your thoughts because that is what this blog is for.

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  39. Scott how about an update on what you think?

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  40. Well Sal I'd like to wait until tomorrow where I'll post my thoughts in detail. A track just South of the area crossing Northern PA would be great for late week snow. I'd like a couple more runs of data before pulling the trigger on this one. Considering the winter we've had, I have my doubts.

    Scott

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  41. Do not worry Scott it will not happen unless you listen to Hamlin Plower, Andrew and weatherguy. This is going west of us and the upper north areas and way NNE will get the snow. Take it to the bank! "The Expert"

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  42. Thanks weatherdan I am tring to ignore negative blogging. I am still sticking with the thought of a very wintery weekend. Friday and saturday should be fun. I am leaning towards a more snow than rain event at this point. Models are pushing Low futher east and south. They are bringing in more cold air and quicker. GFS is still ever changing, however it almost has it now. The Eruo is in line. If we could just get the storm futher south with a more south to north track we could be in line for a big storm. I say keep the snow shovels handy we might be in for some fun.
    P>S> I think local Mets might be more excited than they let us in on. This storm is going to run a fine line between BIG SNOWS AND MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. Still a long way out but i have a GUT FEELING about this one; However, ITS PROBABLY JUST GAS.

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  43. Not sure what anon. is so angry about. I do look at models and evidence. I agree with Hamlin that we could get some decent snow this weekend. In fact the 18z GFS shows about 8 inches for our area. It is coming towards the Euro as Hamlin has said and the Euro has had it all along. I think it will be a favorable track. In fact I said it yesterday winds will be strong and there will be wrap around snow and LES.

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  44. I agree with Hamlin that this is something to watch. Lets try to stay positive and maybe we can get something for the snow lovers. I agree keep posting that is what this blog is for and wondering what the usual people think about this potential. The usual I am asking weatherguy,David, Chris and Charles to name a few.

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  45. Hamlin-keep it up... your posts are great!

    JM

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  46. The 18z is better than the other runs when favoring snow, however, the Euro has a more south to north track, which would give us much more lake enhancement, and most likely more synoptic snow as well. Given this winter, I'm not buying into this one until Thursday morning or until Scott is sold on it. I know it was a long time ago, but back in early January, a similar scenario played out if y'all remember. The models didn't verify until late and it caught everyone off guard, giving us a solid 4-6" if I remember correctly. I'm not saying that will happen again, but with the event only 3-4 days out, time is on our side. Cross your fingers everyone!

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  47. What am I missing. I just looked at the latest GFS and it does not show a storm at all, but a weak low taveling North of us Firday into Saturday. I must be missing something.

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  48. Is the 18z the latest GFS model?

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  49. Can somone tell me what 12utc, 18utc, 0utc and 6UTC stand for.

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  50. Thanks JM I enjoy blogging and love the weather, I hope we can get something out of mother nature this weekend, She can be very fickle though. I think the forecast is looking better by the day although we will see.
    Weatherdan, Yes the 18Z run is the latest run. You should be able to get the 00Z run by 11:30 tonight. I think what you are seeing is the GfS is hinting the low heading over head or just south transfering its energy to the coast. The EURO has a much earlier developing and better organized storm than the GFS has, i was just happy to see the GFS LP trending south and east. Hopefully next GFS run will show Stronger LP further south and east. I dont think LP is going to go west maybe directly over head. I have also watched many storms transfer energy to the coast early and blow up too far east leaving us behind. Either way it is going to be fun to watch everything unwind. I also would not put much faith in the GFS yet. It will be tomorrow before it stops jumping all over the place. Atleast there is finaly something in the weather worth blogging about.

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  51. UTC is the same as GMT also just Z, which is Greenich Mean Time. It is a standard time kept in greenich England that gets everyone on the same page. It does not change and cant be effected by things like day light savings. It allows the whole world the use the same time to do things like run forecast models. I believe we are currently 5 hours behind GMT or UTC and then 4 after DST. I hope that was some help.

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  52. So 18z is 6pm, 0z is midnight, 6z is 6am and the 12z is noon?

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  53. You have to use the 24 hour clock.(0Z-7PM) (6Z- 1AM) (12Z-7AM) (18Z-1PM) when we change the clocks (0Z-8PM) (6Z-2AM) (12Z 8PM) (18Z 2PM)

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  54. Lots to keep your weather brain alert the next 72 hours. A developing area of weak low pressure will zip across Pennsylvania tomorrow evening. This might put down a 2-4" snow in the hills South of I-90 tomorrow night. Too many unknowns with Friday's low. NAM may just have it right bringing low directly over us with a period of mix to snow at the end. Forget 18z and 6z runs of GFS, you can throw them out. Rely on 0 and 12z runs which have MUCH better global data at initialization.

    Scott

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  55. Thursday, Is this an elavation snowfall south of I90, or can i get alittle excited on the lakeshore too. Is it too warm for areas north of I-90, Latest NAM Pushed precipitation further north and west and has slightly stronger low. Very exciting and interestion weather so much more fun than warm sunny weather. What parameters do you use in these type events where precip type is close. I thought that 1000-500mb Thickness was key, looking for that key 540 and also 850mb Temp very important.
    Friday very intesting might be busy plowing soon cant wait.

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  56. 0z looks very similar to the Euro now, but still a couple days out! And Hamlin, I hope you can make some ca-ching Friday into saturday! Your chances are a little better than 50/50 right now, which is sadly the best chances we have had in quite some time. Hopefully the 0z Euro shows the same storm track it has been advertising for a few days now, but we will see...

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  57. As the "Expert" predicted the new data runs including the Euro show no big deal for western NY this weekend. As I said the other day upper NY and Maine/Vermont will be the winners. Go back to hoping this one is done again as Scott felt last night in his forecast. It is going NW of us not SE. Sorry!

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  58. The 0z GFS shows it stayin South of us not West. It is not going to BIG by any means. A few inches at most, but it is NOT going West as anonymous above states. Not sure what model you are looking at.

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  59. As the "Expert" predicted the new data runs including the Euro show no big deal for western NY this weekend.
    This is your quote from above anon-How about attaching a name to your predictions. Also, you are doing a splendid job being the court jester! Hamlin-your analysis up to this point is looking more and more likely.
    Bring on the snow!!

    JM

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  60. What is JM talking about? Hamlin-your analysis up to this point is looking more and more likely? Hamlin said BIG snows if it goes south of us? Big snows are you talking 2 inches as big snows? All of you are such wishcasters rather than intelligent weather people. Please stop the only realistic one is weatherdan. Go enjoy the spring and do not pretend you are excited about 2 inches of snow. Not even the plowers make money for that. "The Expert"

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  61. Check out the 12z GFS please.

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  62. North North North as predicted by the "Expert". NNE is in for a big snowstorm just as I have been saying for 3 days now. It is about climatology not models people. When i say people I mean weatherguy, andrew, hamlin plower, and weatherdan. Now you can move on to your wishcasting for next week. That too will be a waste of time. "The Expert"

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  63. The 00utc Nam and GFS show the storm riding through Northern Pa to Eastern, NY. To me it looks to be a rain to snow with a few inches of snow. No BIG deal. THe GFS keeps flip flopping like it always does. The NAM has been steady as she goes with moving it SOUTH and EAST. I would throw out the GFS in my humble opinion.

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  64. Wondering what the John/Scott is thinking now of the weekend with the latest models?

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  65. annoyed in farmingtonFebruary 22, 2012 at 3:15 PM

    hey "expert", your such a big tough guy...if you know so much about weather why are you on this blog? maybe you should apply for a job at one of the local stations. I am so annoyed with your know it al attitude. I would much rather listen to the rest of these guys and get my hopes up and then dissapointed than listen to you. Go away and let us talk about the weather.

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  66. Euro is still sold on a favorable track for us to get some measurable snow, but the GFS is more of a rain to snow type of deal. Its strange for the models to be this separate only 48 hours out! And weatherdan, the NAM never verifies more than 24 hours out...

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