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Tuesday, February 14

A Bit of Snow for Valentine's Day



Written by John DiPasquale:


Well, if you are a snow lover at least there's a little snow falling today, but nothing like what we, & much of the Northeast experienced 5 years ago on this day, when we were buried under about a foot & a half of snow just on Valentine's Day with some additional lake snows that followed! All we will see today is a little snow in the air at times, especially this afternoon & tonight that may lay down a coating to an inch or so & that's about it. The culprit for the nuisance snow will be a little weak disturbance & surface trough. After maybe a touch of snizzle/flurries &/or a bit of freezing drizzle late tonight & early Wednesday the sky will try to brighten with maybe even a bit of afternoon sun before it goes down tomorrow. Temperatures today will be in the low to mid 30s, & mid 30s to near 40 on Wednesday.


The map above is displaying what looks to be a mainly rain producing storm system yet again for WNY. There may be a mix/wet snow at the onset of the precipitation late Wednesday night/early Thursday, especially north & east of Rochester & in the hills. The NAM has a slightly colder solution that would provide a little more mix/snow, but still nothing too significant. Beyond this system, it will turn colder Friday & more so over the weekend, especially by Sunday the way it looks now. This should spell at least a little lake snow at times around the area late Friday & maybe again later Saturday into Sunday in the wake of a little clipper. Either way, the snows that are possible this weekend do not look nearly as significant as last weekend's snowfall. The one fly in the ointment come Sunday will be a developing storm near the coast. The GFS has it moving out to sea, but inching a little further north with the latest run. The Euro is stronger & keeping it right near the coast, which would spell trouble for the east coast & POSSIBLY more significant lake snows, probably not storm snow though, for us if this scenario played out. Stay tuned.


Have a great night & Happy Valentine's Day everyone!


13 comments:

  1. Winter is over, back up to 40 next Tuesday. We will NEVER get enough snow to ride the snowmobiles. What a huge disappointing snow season. I'm ready for spring, I can't take any more of this.

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  2. Yes sorry Ginger there does not look like much happening for at least the next ten days and maybe beyond. No big storms in sight it has been a very surprising winter. I do not think we are going to get one big synoptic snowstorm the entire winter. The pattern/elements are just not there and time is running out. We have a better shot heading into March for ice storms than snowstorms. No one wants s devastating ice strom we all remember those.

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  3. Whatever happend to that well advertised PATTERN change that has never taken place???????????????????

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  4. Why are their no storms this winter? It is very strange.

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  5. Weatherdan, no one said there would be a pattern change. But as Chris or Caledonia said (I can't remember who) a couple days ago, the pattern has technically changed, especially terms of the MJO. It looks as though blocking may set up by the end of the month, with some potent cold trying to drop down, but we'll see. If that happens, we could get a humdinger to come up the coast, after all, late Feb. and early March is the blockbuster time frame. Anyone have thoughts on this?

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  6. Did anyone see the latest GFS run. Andrew called it again. It takes a storm on Sunday much closer to the coast and throwing snow back into Western, ny. Hopefully the models keep taking this a little further West. Great call Andrew.

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  7. 00Z GFS shows an east coast storm this Sunday. Amy thoughts?

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  8. This is something to keep an eye on for the weekend. It may be too far east but I think there will for sure be a storm on the coast that will strengthen. I hope for the snow lovers we get in the jackpot zone particularly you Ginger and Weatherdan!

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  9. I'm not an expert on reading these models, but it looks like the 06z GFS takes the storm from the Carolina coast and then northeast out to sea.

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  10. WHAT IS INTERESTING IS THAT EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN STORM WIL MISS US EAST THERE IS ANOTHER LOW THAT HANGS BACK OVER US AND COULD DRAW GOOD MOISTURE IN. I HAVE SEE THIS BEFORE AND WE COULD END UP GETTING A MODERATE SNOWFALL. ANY THOUGHTS? THE GFS SHOWS THIS.

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  11. Hey all you bloggers. Go to this site and vote for Scott as the top Weather Forecaster. He deserves it http://bit.ly/yDVFZ8

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  12. Weatherdan I am not seeing any potential for this weekend. All the local mets have the temps in the 40's Sunday and Monday. I am sorry but do see that other LP you are talking about.

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  13. The 12z GFS now has that low hugging the coast as it heads up from the south on Sunday.

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