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Sunday, February 12

We Finally Found Winter!



Written by: Stacey Pensgen


Mother Nature has been hiding Old Man Winter from us, and we finally found him...in Lake Ontario!


As expected, snowfall amounts varied greatly from north to south with the lakeshore communities getting the most, and the Southern Tier getting the least.


An intense, west to east orientaed single band of snow developed off of Lake Ontario Sunday morning, and dropped south, also as expected. This band produced snowfall rates of 1.5-2" per hour as is slowly sagged through the northern counties before falling apart as the wind shifted out of the north.


While snowfall amounts are still coming in, as of this post (4:30PM), the official number at the airport was 15.1" of very fluffy snow since Friday night.


Looking ahead, we're watching a few weak disturbances, with a stronger area of low pressure heading our way on Thursday. Right now, it doesn't look like an all-snow event, with the track over us, or just to the west, but things can certainly change in the next few days. It's something to keep an eye on, followed by another quick burst of cold air possible by next weekend.

22 comments:

  1. We had 14" in Sodus Point.

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  2. Pretty jealous here in the southerntier, reading all your snow posts ;-( We missed out, just a couple inches here. Not enough for our winter activities. When will it be our turn to cash in????

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  3. Boy John was on this one he said couild be significant snow north of the thruway including the metro. Scott was not on his game with this one I do not think he was confident about the totals that happened. Well that is why they are the News 8 weather team. John saved that most accurate forecast label this time.

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  4. I'm guessing Scott was trying to be a bit cautious, because if he had predicted 10 inches, and only 3 fell, everybody on here would be on him for that! This blog cracks me up. I want snow as much as the next person, but some people on here actually get angry with the mets and with each other (and with who knows who else) when it doesn't happen. Relax. It's mother nature. One of these winters, we will have a doozy. It's just probably not going to be this one!

    BTW, we had close to a foot in Hilton too. My boys went sledding for the first time all winter!!

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  5. Well, I hope all you Snow Lovers are happy!

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  6. I love this weather for two reasons. Number one is that it just looks awesome and two, it keeps all of the annoying people on this blog from saying anything!

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  7. Great post Weatherguy. Those two points echo my feelings.
    Andy

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  8. Friday night, I was forecasting 6"+ for the areas that got the most snow today. I am not going to forecast detailed lake snow amounts 48 hours out. We got burned just last month on a very similar lake setup. Lake effect is fickle and yes I was cautious on this one. Most south of the city got 4-8" just two miles north over 12" fell. Lake effect is humbling and I never feel bad when it beats me. We do our best and that's all I can try to do!

    Let just enjoy a little Rochester winter for awhile!!!

    Scott

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  9. Scott you guys are the best you do not have apologize for anything. Do you see any potential for storms in the near future?

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  10. Stacey has it right on for the upcoming week. Minor flakes on Tuesday then mix or rain on Thursday

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  11. Clear and windy in Lyons as of this writing (Mon. 5am). Total weekend snows in Lyons...about 12 inches.

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  12. It looks like a rain event for Thursday-Friday. Am I correct? Enjoy the snow while we have it guys. It was beautiful. How can people not like snow??

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  13. Nope will go to our east and we get heavy snow according to Andrew ast night but he is a moron. Not sure where he is getting his weather information.

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  14. I agree with weatherdan. That snow is going to melt this week. It was really pretty yesterday, but not fun to drive in!!!!

    Hey, what is going on with Channel 10? Everyone else local and national is predicting temps in the 40s, but Kevin and company don't agree... I guess they can't stand the idea of another thaw!

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  15. oh, and thanks for the great HYPE-FREE forecasting!

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  16. Sorry guess I was wrong and misread things. It will be quiet and I apologize for the mistake about a potential big storm.

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  17. First of all Andrew is not a moron, it's only monday, and there is a good chance of the storm pulling down some cold air, and we all know what that can lead to after this past weekend!

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  18. Hello All,

    Well, finally we got a wintry weekend around here & while a lot of it will slowly melt this week, at least it will not melt away as quick as the last couple of times we had measureable snow. It looks like it will be quiet through tonight, & then a few wet snow showers & flurries should develop for Valentine's Day tomorrow into tomorrow night. Little, if any, accumulation will occur with this little surface trough & upper air disturbance tomorrow & tomorrow night. Temperatures will go above freezing tomorrow & slip back close to freezing tomorrow night.

    Wednesday should be pretty gray & mainly quiet, but come Thursday it appears that a storm will head right at us or just to the north & west, which would provide a mainly rain event for us on Thursday into Thursday night. Precipitation may begin as an icy mix/wet snow, especially north & east the way it looks now, but there still is a chance this could change depending of course on the storm's ultimate track. It's still a few days out. Stay tuned. Either way, it will turn brisk & colder thereafter with a bit of lake snow possible late Friday into the weekend. Might be a little system Saturday night into Sunday. We'll see. Still way too far out to tell with any confidence.

    Have a great night WNY!

    John

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  19. I second that, I find Andrew's weather analysis very informative and logical (remember, he doesn't do it for a living). Keep it up Andrew, don't let any nudnick get to you! BTW, this weekend was awesome. Hopefully mother nature will surprise us again soon! My apologies to Weatherdan for questioning his logic on the possibility of significant LES. I will gladly eat crow for dinner.

    JM

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  20. be careful mentiuoning channel 10...i got chewed out by scott the other day for even mentioning them. i was simply confused as to why they were predicting so differently than others. I didn't mean to challenge any ones thinking, just an open blog.

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  21. I personally thought it was funny!

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  22. Looking at Lake Ontario on satellite images.. there isn't as much as an ice cube on it. Being completely ice free might help in getting a couple more events like this past weekend before we wrap this up. My kid was in Greece and was amazed by the snow as it was coming down. And he hates snow!

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