Finally the Sun Returns Today!
Written by John DiPasquale:
Ok, I'm certainly not an artist, but I did want to highlight the wedge of dry air & sunshine since we have not seen this kind of sun since last Friday. So yes, I believe many of us will be smiling when we walk out in the sun today. Yes, it will still be brisk & cool, but definitely milder than it has been since Friday, as highs make it into the low to mid 50s.
Unfortunately, while it will get even milder for our Thursday with highs well up into the 50s to around 60 there will be some showers/storm developing for the late morning into the afternoon, which you can see left of the smiley sun & circle drawn in the above pic. The showers we see on our Thursday will be from a developing storm & strengthening cold front swinging through. In the wake of the intensifying storm & cold front it will turn windy & much colder Thursday night into Friday. As a matter a fact, it will turn cold enough late Thursday night into Friday that we should pick up a little lake snow & rain shower activity late Thursday night through early Friday afternoon. Highs on Friday will likely only make the mid 40s, if even that, late in the day! More sun should develop to finish out Friday, but will the sun continue to shine through the weekend?? At this point, it looks like we will stay protected by cold high pressure to the north from a storm passing by to the south across the Mid-Atlantic, but if the storm takes a more northerly track then at least some, if not all, of us will likely pick up some snow &/or rain Saturday & Saturday night. Right now I am forecasting brisk conditions through the weekend regardless of the storm affecting us or not with precip, & keeping at least intervals of sun in the forecast for Saturday, & then more abundant sun for Sunday. Also, if the sky stays clearer Friday & Saturday nights we will likely experience a widespread frost/freeze, & this is quite likely Sunday night into early Monday too. Highs will most likely be in the 40s with lows in the 20s & low 30s, except mid 30s near the big lake. Stay tuned for updates on this potentially changing forecast through the rest of this week.
Have a good one & enjoy the sun everyone!
No storm is going to effect us this weekend with snow. I am not sure why John keeps bringing this potential up. Scott said the weekend is going to be nice because of the HP to our north.
ReplyDeleteAny signs that the warm up coming next week might stay?
ReplyDeleteWritten by John DiPasquale:
ReplyDeleteToday will be the mildest day with highs within a few degrees of 60, which is average for this time of year. A cold front and intensifying storm will produce some showers through this afternoon & evening and bring an abrupt end to the milder air tonight through the weekend. In fact, the air will become cold enough with a gusty west-northwest wind to cause some lake flurries & a few squalls to develop late tonight into Friday. A slushy coating to an inch of slushy snow may accumulate, especially over the hills, but for the most part the snow will be insignificant. What will not be insignificant for everyone will be the blustery winds & unseasonable chill. Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 30s, & highs on our Friday will only manage the mid 40s, despite a good deal of sun. Wind chills on Friday will only be in the 20s & 30s! Bundle up when heading out tomorrow!
The weekend will be brisk & chilly with the likelihood of frost Saturday, Sunday & Monday mornings. Highs from Friday through Sunday will be in the 40s, with lows in the 20s & low 30s. Brrr!! Protect those sensitive plants & crops farmers & gardeners.
A warm up should build in as we end April & kick off May next week, but it also appears there will be some showers accompanying the warm up. I believe the warm up next week will probably be snuffed out by next weekend, but that's way to far away to have a lot of confidence in long range data such as this.
Hi Anonymous,
Reason I have not totally dismissed the chance of snow &/or rain from the forecast this weekend is because I have seen changes in storm tracks drastic enough in a 24 hour period that would cause us to be unsettled Saturday &/or Saturday night. While, it looks dry now, that storm to the south is not too far away. A jog of a couple hundred miles to the north would make a huge difference! High pressure does look to keep us protected, which will probably be the case, but you learn as a meteorologist not to totally ignore/disregard the chances of a change to the forecast when you've seen it happen many times before when a system is close by. Hope this makes more sense to you with regards to the reasoning behind not totally turning your back on a storm. That's when you can, & will get bitten. Be good Anonymous, & thanks for your input.
Have a great day everyone!
Thanks John for the explanation. That high will keep the storm away that is a good thing. One question John if it was winter how much snow would we have received from the storm this past Sun/Mon?
ReplyDeleteANONYMOUS, where do you live. If you are near the BIG LAKE you MAY be safe from the next storm, or atleast you are safe from any accumulating snow. If you live south of I-90 I WOULD NOT be shocked if you got a couple inchs of wet snow Saturday night-Sunday morning.
DeleteDONT TURN YOUR BACK ON THIS TRICKY LITTLE STORM IT WILL BITE YOU AS JOHN HAS WARNED COULD HAPPEN.
Which model should we trust, NAM, GFS, or maybe neither? NAM 18Z run has Precip(SNOW) very close to the ROC area late Saturday, whereas the GFS 18Z run has no precip anywhere near ROC for that time frame. Just 2 nights out and much different model run results. Ealier in the week the GFS runs looked similar the the current NAM run. The GFS also took a long time to pinpoint last Sunday nights event. This weekend might not be as sun filled and dry as it looks right now.
ReplyDeleteHamlin I live in Fairport thus should not get any wet snow. Thanks
ReplyDelete