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Sunday, April 22

TOUGHEST STORM SINCE LAST FEBRUARY!

EXPECTED SNOW TOTALS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
HIGH RISK OF WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES S.W.

Written By:  Scott Hetsko

I'm SO sorry about the delay in writing as this sometimes has to be the LAST thing I do before I prepare to broadcast.  The low's forecast track takes it up I-81 and then filling as it slows just North of Lake Ontario.  This forecast would be SUPER easy if it were only one month ago.

My area of LOWEST confidence in my forecast unfortunately is the area with the HIGHEST population.  Rochester and the metro should escape with nuisance snow but I wouldn't be completely shocked if we got twice as much as I'm forecasting.

Either way, widespread power outages will be likely in the region shaded in orange.  Lakeshore flooding will be the main issue along the shore in Monroe County.  Very complex set of forecast parameters, 850 mb temps remain subzero Celsius which concerns me.

UGGGGGHHHHH.  Good luck with this one!

12 comments:

  1. Scott what are the chances that you give the storm of following a more easterly path and giving Rochester more snow then forecasted?

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  2. It looks like most of Wayne county is Rain so I am safe. Thank you.

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  3. this storm is about 100 miles east of its forecasted track. of the coast of NJ right now. why hasn't the forecast changed to reflect this? buffalo was supposed to get the brunt and now the storm is east of that zone by our distance (or more) what am i missing?? L. Onario gonna keep us warm. Scott/ kevin/ please reply. i'm dying from lack of chatter about this. rochester DAVE

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  4. I think this is a bust for snow anywhere. It is after 3 am and Jamestown is just cloudy, Buffalo and Rochester is all rain.

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  5. Snowing in Western Wayen county at 3:45 AM- 34 degrees.

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  6. They need to expand the advisories and warnings east. It is 33 degrees in Western wayne county and snowing.

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  7. Heavy snow falling In Western Wayne county. Ground is covered as well as the roads.

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  8. All snow at my house in Lyons as or 5 am. Ground, sidewalks, roads all covered as well. I would think the snow will have a hard time accumulating once that strong late April sun starts to rise.

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  9. Trees are already starting to sag in Wayne county yet they have not expanded the Winter Storm Warning into Wayne county. Temp is 32. The storm moved further east. Buffal has been all light rain. Bust for them.

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  10. Michele in PenfieldApril 23, 2012 at 7:13 AM

    NOAA issued a winter storm warning for Rochester at 430am this morning. I think Scott may be right about having to double the totals in the snow forecast. My poor lilacs that just bloomed..............

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  11. There was a local forecaster (not Scott or team), that said at 11pm last night that the rochester metro would get nothing.

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  12. Just raining in Hilton. It's miserable either way!

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