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Thursday, October 25

SANDY STRIKES EARLY NEXT WEEK


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

Latest guidance continues to suggest Hurricane Sandy morphing into a big Northeaster and making landfall between the Delmarva and Eastern Long Island sometime on Monday.  This storm will bring the most damage to coastal areas with power outages and strong winds.  Being a tropical system, there will be very heavy rain in parts of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York, and Maryland.  It's still WAY too early to be sure but the one event it reminds me of most is Agnes in 1972.

I'm most concerned about Northeast PA at this point as they are quite prone to excessive rain there along the Susquehanna.  Our area can absorb quite a bit with the Mt. Morris Dam in place but minor flooding cannot be ruled out here.

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18 comments:

  1. I remember Agnes! Not good!!

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  2. Scott, any chance we'll get as close to breaching the Mt. Morris dam as we did with Agnes?

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  3. Aaron, I don't think so at this point. I would expect between 2-4" over 3-4 days which the dam should hold ok.

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  4. I heard one scenario where it turns into a massive snowstorm for New York and PA
    Has that been taken off the board so to speak?

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  5. NEPA does not need anymore flooding. It seems like they are finally getting back on their feet after last fall :(.

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  6. It is going to be way too warm for snow. If this was December or January we would get buried. It would probably be one for the record books. It looks mlike a BIG rainstorm. Watch, after this, when we do have cold air to play with, there will no storms.

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  7. What is the potential affects in the City of Rochester area...Such as flooding or etc.

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  8. Still too early to know on specifics for the Rochester area. We'll have much more confidence over the weekend once we know with certainty where the storm will track.

    Scott

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  9. What about wind? Add 2-4 inches of water to my already soggy yard and I'm going to start worrying about falling trees with any serious wind.

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  10. Still looks like with the latest models that this is just going to be a normal rain event for Rochester. No big deal winds not a problem. Big issues for the coast.

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  11. Not really a weather person so I am asking what may be a stupid question so sorry. Is there any chance that Rochester could get heavy wet snow from this storm? From what I have been hearing the answer is no? Could the knowledgable people on here wiegh in please. Thanks

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  12. I wouldnt rule out snow on a couple of the overnights but its not likely and at most would probably just mix in with the rain

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  13. It's very interesting looking at the 3 local channels for next week's forecast.

    1. Channel 10 - HEAVY RAIN, WINDS, THE END OF THE WORLD (don't cancel any outdoor plans, find a festival, not a weekend washout ;)

    2. Channel 13 - meh, big deal. Don't get your pants in a knot.

    3. Channel 8 - as usual, the most reasonable forecast!!!

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  14. This is much to do hype over nothing big. This thing is not going to make the big turn west as all think. It will have a normal rain impact on us that we have had from many many storms. People need to stop the hysteria and move on with their lives.It will be more out in the Atlantic and not evewn be that strong centainly not "The Perfect Storm".

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  15. Channel 13 is right because they always low key a storm and generally they are always the most accurate.

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  16. Scott, what is you take on this? Do we need to get the canoes out?

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