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Saturday, October 27

Written By:  Scott Hetsko

The latest indications are that Sandy will make a sharp "left" or turn West on Monday and make landfall somewhere between central New Jersey and Delaware.  This will be a strong storm will wind gusts near 70 mph close to the storm.  I estimate our winds will be between 30-50 mph with some higher gusts Monday evening and early Tuesday morning.  Initially, the wind direction will be North or Northeast which will pound the surf of Lake Ontario.  Lake shore flood watches are up for this reason.

Most in Western New York will should prepare for the possibility of power outages, especially if you're in an area which sees power out often during strong wind events.  Rain will fall heavy at times for a time Monday afternoon and night but at this point I don't expect widespread flooding to be a concern here.  Some minor flooding or flash flooding is possible.

Stacey will have updates all weekend as well as myself and John from time to time.  This will be a MAJOR event for the mid atlantic states, hopefully we'll be spared for the most part.

Scott

39 comments:

  1. Scott do you agree that these winds will be sustained with those strongs gusts and the key is that these winds will be prolonged for well over 24 hours?

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  2. Thanks for keeping us updated Scott.

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  3. I do not get Mayor Bloomberg he is acting like this is a bad thunderstorm for NY. They could get clobbered and he is doing the people a disservice not warning them. Leadership 101 always error on the side of extreme caution in big events. Better to underestimate than over. I do not get it?

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  4. Between 10am Monday and 10am Tuesday the wind here will be in the 20-40 range with higher gusts toward evening and night hours on Monday.

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  5. I'm going with whatever Scott says. He's the best I've ever seen at what he does....and number 2 ain't even close.

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  6. I am suppose to be going out of town to Utica NY on Monday for my daughter's birthday. We are suppose to be coming back to Rochester on Tuesday night. Should I cancel the party and reschedule? When are we expecting the storm to come to a calm?

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  7. I can't determine whether you should cancel anything. Utica will get heavy rain and wind for a time on Monday. Storm will wind down for most of us late Monday night or early Tuesday. Linger effects of rain at times and breezy weather will stay through mid week.

    Scott

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    1. Thanks so much Scott for replying back to me.

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  8. I said this yesterday and will say it again this is going to cause problems for Rochester. We are looking at 3-5 inches of rain and winds 25-40 mph with gusts to 60-65 mph at times. It is a prolonged period of wind. If you watch the weather channel we are in the target area to get ready. I would think school leaders at some point will start looking at this for Monday and Tuesday.

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  9. No one said that this would NOT cause problems for Rochester. We may see power out and trees down due to the strong wind. Not sold on 3-5" inches but 1-3" more likely. I don't care what the weather channel says, go with your LOCAL forecasters and you'll be served better. Also I'm never a big fan of scaring people.

    Scott

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  10. I don't think even our LOCAL forecasters can know what this storm is capable of. It's the setup that was never supposed to happen, this storm is writing its own rules. You didn't believe it could happen earlier this week Scott, I didn't either. The models have been amazing with this storm so far even though it breaks all the rules.

    I think some stations are doing a disservice to it's viewers by not stating more about what could happen and downplaying the possibilities. No one is saying scare people, but there is as much danger by downplaying the storm as hyping it. Channel 8 during the evening news last night made this sound like nothing more than a normal storm. Not even mention of lake shore flooding.

    It could fizzle, it could explode. But there is POTENTIAL for serious affects even in our region and ignoring those is irresponsible.

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  11. No one said that you said this would not cause problems for Rochester. You have to stop taking things so personally. Difficulty with going with LOCAL mets is they are all over the place. One station has the sky falling while the others think not a huge deal. I think you are wrong with rain totals minimum of 3 inches and probably more. This storm is huge and widespread. It is going to hit landfall at under 950mbs of pressure that is a strong strong storm and we will not be that far away from it. Just my opinion looking at the lastest data this morning. I am not an expert no need to feel threatened you are Rochester's most accurate. Thought this was a forum for discussion not to get feelings hurt?

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  12. I don't have to argue with an anonymous poster.

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  13. It IS a big storm, we get that!!!! Just not going to scare people is what I'm saying. Your posts are alarming so tone it down please.

    Scott

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  14. No one is trying to alarm people just trying to get them to pay attention. There is no uncertainty that this is hitting the coast and will have a strong impact on our region just want people to be ready in case they do lose power for several days. Again I think it is much smarter to be more cautious than less when you have a potebtially dangerous situation.

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  15. It's storms like this when I miss my beloved Mortimer. We used to enjoy a warm cup of coffee and gaze out the window and watch the weather roll in. I LOVE you Scott! Will be leaving for my winter retreat in West Palm Beach in a few weeks, but will keep checking you online. May Sandy spare ALL of us from her wrath! Blessings from Brighton! Adelaide

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  16. Is there any possibility for the need of school closings due to Sandy? I would just like to be prepared in finding care for my daughter if she is not able to go to school. Thank you for all of your updates and honest forecasts.

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  17. Schools may be forced to close due to strong winds Monday. I'd be concerned about high profile vehicles getting kicked around tomorrow after 2-3 p.m. through the night.

    Scott

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  18. I think a lot of people tend to confuse "Possibility" with "Probability" ... In my opinion, Scott gives Probabilities to keep us informed and the National news dreams up Possibilities to get us to tune-in.
    Thank You, Scott.

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  19. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  20. I removed K. Devine-Brink's comment as it was wrong and sends the wrong message about what I've been saying. I have never told anyone on air or online that this isn't a storm to be taken seriously. Please stop defaming my reputation on this blog. I'm trying my best to leverage calm on this blog.

    Scott

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  21. You want to get scared? Head over to accuweather. Talk about gloom and doom. They're just short of saying it's the end of the world!
    And for me, i always come back to this blog. i still believe Scott, Stacey, and John do the best job and are most accurate. Let them do their jobs and gather up all the latest data as it comes in. In the end, they will call it right or as close to right as you can get with a storm of historical significance.

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  22. Scott... I'm not trying to defame your reputation. I've spent the last three days trying to get my grandparents to understand that this could be dangerous. Whatever you did say, they keep referring to your broadcast as the reason they don't have to be concerned. You have judged me "wrong", and I'd like to say I care, but all I really care about is that my grandparents realize they could lose power for a week.
    -Kim

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  23. Give me their number and I'll talk to them personally. I've been mentioning for 3 days the potential for power to be out. If you need me to call them I'd be happy to.

    Scott

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  24. I have FB messaged you their number, and I truly appreciate that. It is truly above and beyond.

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  25. I would be excited if this were snow but it is just going to be a big rain and wind event. No BIG deal.

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  26. Everyone needs to take it easy on Scott! This is hands down the best weather blog around and at the rate you guys are going, we may lose this privilege. We all know Scott and the News 8 weather team are without a doubt the most accurate in the Rochester area and to disrespect them is totally unacceptable! It's going to be a big storm, but its surely nothing we cant handle. And for the record, Scott said countless times that power outages are a possibility.

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  27. Scott,
    You have an incredibly difficult job and my wife and I appreciate all you do. This channels weather forecast and blog are the first place I go for local weather. You do an excellent job relaying the weather and threat information without making people freak out.
    Thanks
    Ray from Brcokport

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  28. Rain and wind, no big deal

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  29. Too bad this storm didn't happen 4 to 6 weeks later and maybe we'd be looking at an epic snow fall.

    Scott and his team are truly first rate. They go above and beyond for communication.

    Andy

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  30. I'll have fresh forecast and update here before 6 p.m. news. Very busy the next few hours. More to come...

    Scott

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  31. I hope the updated forecast says it won't be as bad as was first thought. I hate that the wind is coming from a different direction (north/northeast) because the trees are more likely to come down. Scott does have a calming effect on my nerves. He always has. Thanks Scott :)

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  32. lol, Scott you're freakin awesome. 'I'll personally call them' thats great.
    Nice job, enjoy the next couple days!

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  33. I've got mud.. lots and lots of mud.

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  34. Scott is right on with less rain, 1-3 will be the norm. With the storm track the winds are more of a concern here.

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  35. Rainstorms, Windstorms, Ice-storms, Snowstorms, Blizzards!!!!..Just be safe people. When is the last time you could not get to a store the next day after an event!! Even Wegmans stayed open during the 1991 Ice-storm event. I remember because I worked there!! What bothers me is TWC had a footnote on their forecast page for a possible blizzard on Wednesday. I trust my local weather guy for that forecast!!! No panic here!!

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