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Thursday, November 15

Ho-Hum for Awhile...

Written by John DiPasquale:

Well WNY...status quo with the quiet wx pattern right into next week, which is good news for all you travelers headed to families next week.  Things may start to get interesting around here with a pattern change possibly occurring Thanksgiving weekend & beyond...Stay tuned.  As you all know, when you go beyond 4 or 5 days out, the forecasts are highly variable, especially this time of year.  Hang in there snow lovers, your time will most likely come this winter, unlike last. 

Have a great day WNY!



26 comments:

  1. I think things will get real intersting around here in about 10-12 days. It looks like the NAO and AO will go negative and this will allow a much greater opportunity for bigger storms to develop with the artic jet getting going. Maybe I am wrong but this is what I see looking ahead. Snow lovers get ready. Wonder what Scott thinks am I maybe on target or just grasping at straws? You are the best so we would all love your thougths. Als,o when is your winter prediction show going to be aired?

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  2. I am not Scott, but the winter outlook will be on Saturday, 7:30. A winter like last year is very rare, though more frequent than the past (about once every 8-10 years).

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  3. Unbelievable forecast through next week. Sunny and warm. Wow!!!

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  4. Where's Andrew? Any winter forecast yet?

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  5. This winter: Mild and snowless.

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  6. Hopefull Hamlin WorkerNovember 17, 2012 at 1:52 PM

    Anonymous, I dont understand your thinking mild and snowless for all winter. The way it looks to me November is going to go in the books as colder than normal, much different than last november. We dont usually see much snow in November. Its kind of early to base the whole winter on 3/4 of Novembers weather. It also looking as if December might start out much colder than normal and I would suspect alittle more snowy than normal. I would not bet on a winter like last years. We are over due for some big time snow makers this winter, time will tell.

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  7. Andrew is here! Andrew thinks this winter will be very similar to last year. Above average temperatures and below average snow fall. I think we will get a little more snow overall but no really big storms again this year. The real cold air will be locked way up in northern Canada. Take this to the bank no need to watch the News 8 predictions tonight.

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  8. What's your reasoning for that, Andrew?

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  9. The NAO/PNA indices will not be where they should be for favorable stroms to develop. If anything does develop it be east of us most of the time. Also the 540 nb reading is far north which means the real cold will stay way north in Cananda. Just my feeling I am not an expert.

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  10. Sorry Caledonia that is 540 dm reading which leads me to believe real cold will stay far north. Not nb sorry for typo.

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  11. Andrew, NAO is going to be negative most of this winter or at least neutral. Plus, were below normal for the month of november... Your rationale does not make sense right now...

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  12. Time will tell Weatherguy. Not sure how you can predict that the NAO is going to be negative or neutral most of the month? Thus you have not even giving any rationale at this time?

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  13. I totally agree with Andrew. This winter will be very similar to last year with no BIG storms. Any storms will miss us to the South and East. Although Nobember has been colder than normal there has been no snow at all. I think we average about 6-8" this month? I hate to say this nut channel 8 is guessing as well. They really did not say anything we do not already know. They talked about a positive and negative NOA and what type of weather we would have with each, but did not say which it would be or what they think it would be. They said 80-100 inches. Well, that is a normal winter and anyone could say that. I just felt that the showm last night did not tell us anything. Sorry guys.

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  14. In the winter of 98/99 we had 0.1" snow in November and still had 111" for the season. In 06/07 we had 0.5" snow in November and still made it to 107" for the season. In 09/10 we had 0" in November and still had 89" for the season. In 10/11 we had 0.4" in November and still hit 127" for the season.

    Since 1940 our average snowfall for November is around 6"-7" and annual avg is 89-90". Since 1940 we've had 17 winters with less than 2" in November and the annual avg for those 17 winters was 83" for the season. So the annual average was only reduced by the November deficit. I guess what that tells me is that November is not a good predictor for the entire winter.

    Andy

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  15. Weather special was disappointing last night - up and down? average snowfall? depends on what the NAO and PNA does? no kidding !!

    and before some of you get upset - there are several people on here that just jump on to irritate the snow lovers - very obvious.

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  16. It was very dissapointing, I agree. I love channel 8, but last nights program was terrible. They basically said it could snow or not. It could be cold or not. That is why no-one can make predications. What happens happens.

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  17. I think it is pretty well accepted in the world of meteorology that weather in Nov. does not necessarily indicate what the winter will bring. I think October patterns are more indicative of winter weather. Someone correct me if I am wrong.

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  18. Everyone has winter prediction specials every year and if you pay attention to the weather you should know that there is no possible way to forecast what is going to happend in the coming months. People need to just calm down and wait the weather will do whatever it wants you cannot predict what will come

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  19. no kidding - but, they hype the show as the winter forecast - tell the mets not the blog

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  20. Ok Andrew, now your just being silly... But bottom line, for us to have 2 winters in a row that produce less than 70", let alone 60" of snow would be unprecedented! And just to save us from hearing Andrew complain about not being rational, I'll provide the stats... In the last 72 years, we have had only 2 back to back winters that have produced less than 70" of snow, which were the winters of 1947-1948/1948-1949 and 1986-1987/1987-1988. I will agree that time will tell, but history is on our side for once!

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  21. Wait Weatherguy I said I believe the NAO/PNA indices will not be favorable for a big snow winter. Meaning the NAO will be in the positive range. Then you say the NAO will be in the negative to at least nuetral state most of the winter? How do you know that is that not being silly? I am telling you we will be lucky to get 75 inches of snow this year. Also I stated why we not get big time cold weather either. So get ready for unprecedented Weatherguy. Perhaps I should have my own winter weather prediction show. At least I am taking a stand and saying the 2 big indices will not be favorable not explaining what will happen if they are or are not. Also I validate that extreme cold staying way up north with that 540 dm reading yesterday. So time will tell and do not get mad when I am right like I have been the last few winters.

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  22. Ok Andrew... Truce! I'm not going to argue anymore but I have opinion and you have an opinion, we'll just have to see which one pans out! But, it looks as though there will be cold air trying to sneak it's way down to our area by this upcoming weekend, with the NAO showing a downward trend toward negative. Definitely something to watch for as it may be our first LES event of the season...

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  23. Fair enough Weatherguy and I am sure you know more than I do about weather or I would have been Weatherguy II on this blog ha ha. We will have to wait and see and if that NAO gets negative and stays there then that cetainly would help for storm development. The fun thing is we can work together and I would be fine with a couple big storms for all those winter weather lovers.

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  24. The cold coming this weekend will be a quick hit and then it will be outta here. There will be no staying power.

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  25. I'm sad I missed the long-range forecast this weekend, I was out climbing in the adks for the first "winter" trip of the season...to the people who are disappointed about the whole "it could snow, or not" conclusion - relax. If you know enough about long-range forecasting for the winter you know that it's already difficult, but add on top of that all the conflicting factors going into this season - some of which can lead to more snow/cold, others average, and others warm and below average snow. Between the ENSO, NAO, AO, sea ice, and others, there really is no clear winner as far as I can see that will be the big determining factor one way or the other just yet. It really is a wait and see type of situation and for News 8 to be honest about that I feel is a testament to their accuracy. On a side note, Stacey I saw you at Wegmans on my way out on Friday but didn't want to interrupt while you were working, but know that I was silently yelling 'NEWS 8 WEATHER!!!' at you. Keep up the good work guys.

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  26. Thanks Andrew I am heartened by your prediction. Certainly hope you are right--again.
    I'm not saying Andrew's crystal ball is clearer than anyone else's BUT last year he was the ONLY one to nail the winter forecast in early Dec 2011. He said storms would miss and they did. He said relatively mild, it was. ALL the professional mets 8, 10 and 13 got it wrong. All said above average snow in their forecasts.
    I don't know if he can do it again but I am sure hoping Andrew has it right-- again.

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