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Monday, December 31

A Little Snow to Kick Off 2013, Especially North






Written by John DiPasquale:

The last day of 2012 will be quiet, but it does appear we will see a bit of snow move through tonight with cold front followed by limited lake snows, mainly Thruway northbound.  I believe we all will receive a coating to an inch or so tonight, which could make it a little slick in spots late tonight when the snow moves through.  In the wake of the front very late tonight into New Year's Day we will see some limited lake snows that may be aided by Lake Huron &/Georgian Bay.  Either way, I don't anticipate this being a real big lake snow event, but ridge from the south & west will build in & should the lake snow off during the afternoon.  About 1 to 4" of lake fluff could pile up in the most persistent snows mainly north of the Thruway, possibly including the Greater Rochester area on Tuesday.

The next front will then approach late Tuesday night into Wednesday and attempt to push some more lake snow in later Wednesday into early Wednesday night.  At this point, not so sure that lake snow will make it into Rochester, but across parts of Wayne County to near Syracuse looks to be a good bet for at least a bit of accumulating lake snow during this time frame.  Stay tuned for more updates as new data streams in.

Also, the shot of Arctic cold appears to be a brushing & short lived for week's end.  A more seasonable air mass appears to be slated to work in for the weekend as it stands now.  No big general snows in the near future either.  We'll see about next week...

Have a great day & Happy New Year's everyone!!  Be safe & enjoy!

       

20 comments:

  1. Weather going back to last year. Warm-up coming and think that will be the pattern rest of winter. We had our one storm for the winter. It will be like last winter from here on.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. STRONGLY disagree. Big time. SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) event ongoing near the North Pole, which will lead to cold moving into some part of the northern hemisphere. To my knowledge the Euro weekly still shows arctic air moving into our region a few weeks from now, and the NCEP 500 mb mean shows a strong trough developing in the upper Midwest around the same time. Not to mention both the AO and NAO ensembles taking a nosedive towards that time as well. So there is plenty of evidence that our January Thaw will be fleeting and that the current SSW will lead to a colder pattern in North America instead of Eurasia, unlike the last two such events.

      Of course there is always time for this outlook to change, but one thing is certain: there are absolutely, positively, utterly, zero valid reasons to believe that the rest of winter after this week will be mild.

      Delete
    2. I think anonymous posting at 1:05PM is just one of the usual anti-snow trolls, just posting baseless rubbish to try and inflame the blog.

      Delete
  2. Ok Mr.Anon we will see what the rest of the winter brings. The other anon is wrong that cold air will not get down to NA. It will do just what it did all last winter. Our temps will be above average and our snow below avg. the rest of the winter. I am sorry to say that because I like snow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "I am sorry to say that"

      No you aren't.

      "I like snow."

      No you don't.

      Now go away troll, your baseless and inflammatory claims have no place in our neighborhood.

      Delete
  3. Let's go Georgian Bay I'm ready for a few more inches :)

    ReplyDelete
  4. Any forecast from day 7-10 is mostly an educated guess.. how anyone can think they are predicting the next two and a half months is insane.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Big warm up coming for the rest of June.

    ReplyDelete
  6. meant January hope it is warm in June

    ReplyDelete
  7. That wet sliding sound you hear is the bitter EK putz slithering out from under his manhole cover.

    No one cares what you "hope" january brings.

    ReplyDelete
  8. I hope June is nothing but clouds and rain and temperatures in the 40's.

    Just kidding.

    Time to be serious: next week's warmup will be a temporary one, as we look to have a period of seasonably cold/average temperatures the following week. However, the MJO appears to be strengthening and propagating eastward in the Pacific. CPC believes that it is heading into Phase 4 or 5, which correlates to above normal temperatures in eastern North America. This is certainly not set in stone, but if it verifies then the cooldown won't last very long. I still believe that the ongoing SSW will have a thing or two to say about our pattern later in January.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Time to spin the wheel of weather fortune, and wherever it lands will be the weather we get. Let's face it, it's a guessing game at this point in regards to the rest of the winter. For us snow lovers, there's only hope, and the daily up's and downs of the forecast models.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Can you say warm spell? Just as I predicted the winter is over and we had our one storm!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Can you say troll? Give it a rest dude you're wasting your time.

      Delete
  11. We had 2 storms.. you lose.

    ReplyDelete
  12. One storm all winter get use to it people!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. See above...we've already had 2 storms. If you're going to fail at trolling at least get your facts straight...

      Delete
  13. One thing seems pretty clear. If you want to do something that requires the snow we have now... you might want to do it in the next 4 days. End of next week is looking pretty toasty. Early January thaw or end of winter? I wouldn't listen to anyone that tells you they know but I'd bet my money on it not being the end.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I agree with you nobody knows what the rest of winter will bring. I remember it wasnt very long ago many thought Dec would be snowless, that didnt happen.

      I would have to guess Jan WILL NOT be a snowless month either. So it apears there is going to be a little warmer period next week, BIG DEAL. Some are ready to bailout on winter again, WOW, VERY FICKLE GROUP. This broken record is getting old.

      WE WILL NEVER GET ONE STORM A WEEK ALL WINTER LONG. UP AND DOWN WEATHER IS TYPICAL FOR WESTERN NY.

      I will enjoy the snow we have and if it all melts next week, BIG DEAL WE WILL GET MORE SOON.

      WINTER IS NOT OVER BY A LONG SHOT GIVE IT A CHANCE FOR ONCE.

      Delete
    2. To be completely fair, only one person is putting the kibosh on winter and he's probably just trying to provoke. Not only is it extremely unlikely that winter is dead after this week just going by simple probability, there is actually hard evidence supporting a return to wintry weather after next week. Unless someone changed the definition of "wintry" to include high temps in the teens/low 20's and at least one big storm per week, in which case we're going to have to wait awhile...

      Delete

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