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Friday, December 28

Some Frosting on the Snow Cake Tomorrow

Written by John DiPasquale:

A quiet Friday will be followed by another snowfall for Saturday, but nothing like we experienced this past Wednesday night.  The forecast models are getting a bit more aggressive with qpf for tomorrow, especially the NAM, but the NAM usually is a bit over aggressive with qpf.  With that said, a nice little vort max comes through with some moisture and a bit of an inverted trough.  This should squeeze out a solid 1 to 3 or 4" of snow for all, with the highest totals most likely found across the Southern Finger Lakes closer to the storm center.  A limited amount of lake snows will develop Saturday night into Sunday with some additional minor accumulations, especially to the east.  A lot of snow?  No, but definitely a nice refresher for the snow pack that's already in place!  Much colder air will attempt to blow in as we head into the New Year, especially late next week.  This could spell some good lake snows for some!  Stay tuned...

Have a great weekend WNY!       

37 comments:

  1. Most recent NAM has getting about 5 inches of snow tomorrow?

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    1. NAM overdoes QPF. Cut that in half and you've got a more reasonable number.

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  2. I do not think they over did the last storm in fact think they were right on?

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    1. NAM was a bit high on the last storm if I remember correctly. 3+ in is possible though I'm guessing a solid 3, but the more the better my neighborhood looks awesome.

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  3. Winter weather Advisory 3-5inches!

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  4. Winter weather advisory for 3 - 5 inches :)

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  5. Just saw that too. Good deal :)

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  6. Holy *bleep* real winter? Can't remember the last time this happened around here...

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  7. ↑ Those are my thoughts exactly. I am happy to see snow covering the ground...I can not say the same for the salt on my car and truck though....It is snowing nicely down here in the southerntier...enjoy and be safe ;)

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  8. What is the deal with NAO we finaly have winter weather and some colder weather on the way. NAO has, and is forecasted to be positive right through it all.

    I have lost my faith in NAO as a forecasting tool this winter. It will obviously not play a major role in this winters weather.

    Its is also snowing nicely in Hamlin. I am waiting for the phone to ring any minute, more overtime, I will take it. LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW, ENJOY.

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  9. Snowing pretty heavy in Hilton, looks like some solid enhancement off Erie for NW Monroe....

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  10. I am confused as well as i asked scott a while back if the cold weather will stay or if it will warm up again. his response was something about the NAO will go back positive and temps will probably warm briefly as is the case in most winters that it is normal to have temps go up and down. if it is positive right now, and temps are forecasted to get even colder enxt week then i guess there is something else controlling the weather more than it.

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  11. David, Are you still plowing?
    Chris

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  12. Going to get cold late next week. Probably coldest temps we have seen in a while. Then we will warm up mid January and will have to wait and see what Feb/March bring.

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  13. Nope, no more plowing for me......

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  14. With the cold, ya'll should get some good lake snows in the zip code zones further North than I am. I am happy with that we have down here in Livingston County! It is still snowing nicely now :)

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  15. Snowing at a steady rate in Wayland, the roads are very slick. I was surprised to see even more snow! Certainly has been a while for such a winter scene. I do believe my craving has been satisfied.

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  16. Models are suggesting January could be an interesting month, starting with cold air increasing our chance for lake snows, and transitioning to a more active pattern once again. It feels good to be feeling good about the winter this year. I can't wait to get up into the mountains.

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  17. Next week will start cold and end very cold, with at least one day of single digit lows. After that, Pacific-based air should flood the nation once again and last for awhile. HOWEVER, a sudden stratospheric warming event near the North Pole will be wrapping up soon, which will lead to a colder pattern setting up somewhere in the northern hemisphere starting around January 20th. That "somewhere" isn't always North America, in fact the last two such stratospheric warming events put the cold in Europe and Asia, completely avoiding our side of the globe. Given the output of the Euro weekly model showing a much colder pattern here by the 20th, I'm inclined to believe that this time will be different.

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  18. After reading the newest AFD the theme for the next week appears to be: lots of clippers and really friggin cold. They mentioned a burst of snow ahead of an arctic front on Wednesday, which was particularly eye-catching since those can produce some very intense snowfall rates, albeit short-lived.

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  19. thats funny i was just reading that too. looks like a lot of nickel and dime snow which is nice for a change. it was nice to see the light snow fall all day which wasn't crippling but accumulated more than i expected. will be nice to see if any significant lake snow sets up as the arctic front comes through wednesday night

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  20. Yeah haven't read anything but it def looks like some clippers will be comin through

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  21. In the meantime I'm loving this snow and it looks like the lake is about to start helping out a bit

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  22. Anyone know what to expect tomight and tomorrow?

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  23. Snow moves out and gives way to partial sun tomorrow. ....

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  24. Well, we received way more that 1-3 inches from this. Between yesterday and today I picked up at least 8 inches of new snow. They should have put up winter storm warnings saturday instead of winter weather advisories.

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  25. I got around 8 inches as well up in Ontario... it was a surprising little snowfall. Snow is up to some street signs now here in Ontario with more snow this week.

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  26. I assume by more snow this week, you are meaning lake snow?

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  27. It looks to be pretty boring around here for awhile as there are no storms in sight. Just some minor lake effect snows here and there this week. I would think with the coldest air coming across the lakes would produce some good lake effect but the NWS says it will be minor. It is beautiful out there with the mounds of snow. Finally!!! Enjoy.

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  28. the cold air is too cold and too dry to make good lake effect...

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  29. At this point looks very quiet the next 10 days or so.

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  30. NCEP 500 mb mean shows a fairly strong trough developing over the upper Midwest by midmonth. This correlates pretty well with both the NAO and AO dropping around that time. So it's kind of a sandwich pattern, with cold next week followed by a week of moderation then another week of cold.

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  31. What happened to the very cold air later in the week? I thought Thursday it may not even make it to 20. This morning I see the forecast is for mid to upper 20's for Thursday.



    Happy New Year!
    Andy

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    1. Happy New Year to you too sir!

      Seems that the core of the absolute coldest air will remain up in Canada, probably a side effect of the developing +AO regime. This is actually a GOOD thing if you like snow (the lesser degree of cold not the +AO), because Lake Ontario won't lose as much of its latent heat energy to a bitterly cold but quite dry air mass. I have no idea why the models were showing such a frigid air mass in our region in the first place, but the current outlook seems more reasonable given the state of both the AO and NAO.

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