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Wednesday, December 26

LATEST STORM UPDATE


Written By:  Scott Hetsko
UPDATE:  8:45 P.M.

Those of you who pay close attention to my snow maps will see a few little differences on this storm total map.  It appears that slightly colder air at 850mb (-6 to -9C) will enhance the snow a bit during the day Thursday up by the lake.  As of this time, moderate to heavy snow is falling with rates between 1 to 1.5" per hours in many locations.  Heaviest snow will be winding down between midnight and 3 a.m. in Rochester but moderate snow will continue at times overnight.

I decided to nudge the higher end back to my original forecast but still some regions may only get 8" especially in Genesee County.  Along Route 104 it might be quite snowy tomorrow morning as winds wrap around to the NNW.  Good to see a storm at last live up to it's billing!

72 comments:

  1. Where do you see the sweet spot setting up Scott?

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  2. We have another band of very heavy snow forming to the south of Rochester moving in

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  3. What radar you using charles...

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  4. Two spots on the snow map David. Everyone's getting a good snowfall which is nice! Just be careful on the roads.

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  5. When measuring snow.. do you wipe the snow off after every measurement?

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  6. 6 inches in West Henrietta as of 9pm. More than I expected this early.

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  7. so is the snow really way more heavy over near buffalo right now or is it because the radar is out there

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  8. Was wondering the same thing....

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  9. We have just over seven inches in Livonia and people are snowmobiling up and down the street. It looks like fun!

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  10. I really wish there was a radar in Syracuse it would allow us to see the east half of the viewing area without a problem

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  11. Thunder snow being reported on my FB page!

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  12. I think my 12-16 looks like a good bet still. Snow is really coming down.

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  13. I think we have 10 1\2 inches in penfield

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  14. 8 inches here in Northern Livingston.. still snowing at a good clip. This is awesome!

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  15. Do you expect to the snow to rebuild or is that it at the P.A. border. I not complaining just wondering. Already have 9-10 inches in southeast part of Fairport.

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  16. Thunder snow being reporter in Bergen. If these flakes were bigger, we'd have significantly more snow. The flakes have been getting a touch bigger as the temperatures have risen since 6PM.

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  17. Just noticed the larger sized flakes starting in Hilton...

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  18. Will the snow build back in at PA border? Or is that the last of it?

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  19. Correct me if I'm wrong..but did the NAM nail this? Excusing the crazy QPF a little..but it had the dry slot up through Binghamton just as it it is doing now. Am I out to lunch here?

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  20. as some of you were saying earlier today saying how it will be a bust, its been anything but that. many places I think will have a foot+ by tomorrow.

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    1. Not a bust at all..got a little scary there for a little bit as the low transferred. But certainly not a bust in the end.

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  21. This is crazy the amount of snow we have got so far.... it started snowing 4 hours ago and I have more then 10 inches of snow on the ground already

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  22. I just got home to take a quick nap before i go back in at 3:00 AM. It is snowing very hard in Hamlin. I cant take any measurements the winds are whipping the snow around too much. I would guess about 5 inchs.

    The totals I thought are going to be way off. It does appear Hamlin is going to go well over 1 foot during this one.

    I will leave the forecasting totals to the experts next time. It is great to Finally have a storm happening again, and it is a good one at that.

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  23. All channels are uping the snow totals. Channel 10 states the system has actuall slowed down.

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  24. Well the storm still has to move to our NE and start to pull away which will pull the deformation band back over Rochester again I am beginning to think that some people will get 16-24 inches of snow because it just wont stop coming down.... Snow rates of 2+ inch an hour have been common across Rochester this evening

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    1. It was a pretty storm Charles. Can't wait for the clean up tomorrow. The sound of scraping shovels and snow blowers in the crisp, silent air. God I love winter. Neighbor better be up by 9AM because I'll be clearing his driveway by then if he isn't.

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  25. yes! channel 10 has us in 14-18 range with 18-22 southeast of rochester. big totals look likely now with 12-18 very likely wide spread. maybe a little more now, looks like were gonna be in the sweet spot for several more hours. snowing coming down very heavy, as Charles Wachal said 2+/hour

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    1. Love the enthusiasm! Can't imagine the channel 8 blog being excited about you broadcasting the channel 10 forecast on it. Unless you are like me and watch the 3 major channels back to back! I do it too.

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  26. Yes I do it too rambo. ands i just wanted to put it out there, wonder what scott thinkks now. as i think everyone region wide is over 6 and many in the 8-14 inch range now or approaching it. I think 8 is a little low and that many will have more than a foot of snow by the time this storm is over.

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    1. Doesn't matter Snow.. I've got 9 inches on the ground and it's still snowing. Any further guesses on how much we get would be a guess. It's been a fun night.

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    2. Meant to say any forecast on how much more we get would over the next 24 hours would be a guess by me

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    3. Also, I'm not drunk. My goodness.

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  27. News 8 has the best blog by far..BY FAR!

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  28. absolutely!!!

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  29. With all the talk of bust and model inaccuracy look at this storm now. It's VERY close to what models, especially the GFS if I remember correctly, were hinting at over 8 days ago! I think people started to lose faith after last year's winter. On the previous storm people were calling bust before lake enhancement set up, and on this one people were lowering their snowfall predictions before the coastal low began pumping moisture into the system. I stayed away from numbers because nothing really changed from a few days ago when I saw at least 10 in - 18+, a big range but a complicated storm. Once again it seems like Andrew and News 8 were the closest on this one, but everyone has been a little up and down. Hopefully this storm will instill some faith back into our potential to get good winter storms in our area - I don't think it will be the last for this winter. I'm snowed in out in Fairport and won't be getting home to Rochester tonight and it looks like there's already a foot on the ground and rates are at about 1 inch per hour. We finally got one! Everyone be happy and once again great job Scott and News 8 team, your are the best and everyone here knows it.

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  30. The storm still underperformed. Everyone increased their totals and we did not get anywhere near 14". More like 8 or 9. There is nothing on radar now.

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  31. We were close to 14 or 15 here in Newark.

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  32. 8 or 9? where the heck do you live? we are buried here in farmington this morning! 12+ no doubt

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  33. 12+ in Macedon with 2ft drifts

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  34. I would say a good foot and a half in Lyons.

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  35. Two questions - one, how on earth does one measure snow when it has drifted so much? I have bare lawn in places, and knee-high drifts in others. Two, I thought (could be wrong) that the forecast was for a lot of wind today as well - at least here (near Bergen), the wind is very light. What caused the wind to cease so quickly?

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  36. yeah def not a bust. i'm pretty sure if i tried leaving my driveway right now even in my 4x4 truck that the snow at the bottom from plow would be up to my bumper and id get stuck! thats a lot of snow.

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  37. Sure is pretty out there!!! A good foot in Greece :) No bare spots here! So much fun watching this storm coming for days and then have it actually happen :) I love this blog!!

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  38. Alrighty, on to the next one! HAHA Actually not much on horizon anytime soon....

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    1. thats ok, my brain could use a break from stressing over whether a storm will happen or not. im going to enjoy using the snow blower i got last year and used once last year and once so far this year! even though no storms on the horizon, will there be an decent lake effect setting up any time soon with the cold air we have in place? looks even colder next week some time?

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  39. Whomever said this storm underperformed has clearly never used a ruler before. The way the radar signatures were last night, there is no way anyone North of the Bristol hills got less than 8". At least a solid foot in Chili and its still snowing due to the lingering low level moisture. The amazing part is we received around a foot area wide in a 6-8 hour span! That's incredible!!!!!

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  40. By the way, we set a new daily snowfall record yesterday with 8.5" by midnight, which beat the old record of 7.7".

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  41. I wonder if the "anonymous" from last night predicting "lucky to get 6 inches" is having fun shoveling their driveway from the foot+ they probably got :-) all joking aside how did you figure only 6 inches?

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  42. I also think it's way too hard to measure here in Hilton. We have bare spots as well and some drifts that are a foot or more, especially where the plow went by. I'm guessing we have 8 or 9 inches at best, but before I get yelled at by other bloggers, that's really not unusual here! I'm thinking it has something to do with how close to the lake and how far west we are....not sure. Actually Scott did explain it to me last year, but my memory is not so great! Either way, my boys are thrilled that they finally get to go out and play in the snow, so we are happy here either way, so I would call that a success!

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  43. its so nice that we finally have a decent snow pack for all the skiers/snowboarders/ and snow mobilers. we didnt have this much on the ground at one time last year aside from a few spots that got lake effect maybe. I'm looking forward to burning some christmas calories out clearing driveway and playing with my daughter in the snow.

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  44. The storm is over and there are many happy winter weather lovers. Not being arrogant but thought I pegged this one early if you look at past blogs. Thought something was coming a week out but said could not know exact track then. Happy that my numbers were close to what I was thinking. Just trying to help the snow lovers. I say it how I see it. Right now not seeing much in the very near future. Let the bloggers know if any potential pops up. Enjoy the clean up.

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  45. NE Fairport estimating about 10" on driveway with 2 ft drifts. I didn't walk around the yard to take measurements. Snow was heavier than I expected.

    So happy with this storm. Good job news 8. Now it's time to go skiing!
    Thanks
    Andy

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  46. Measured the snow in multiple spots in my yard and areas not affected by wind and got 15 inches. Also some of you are talking about blowing snow there are no drifts were I am located in SE Fairport.

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  47. I live on some higher terrain in NE Fairport and I almost always have wind and eddy currents due to trees, houses and up sloping terrain. That's why I can't get reliable snow measurements.

    Andy

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  48. Does anyone else see the band of snow setting up over the lake. I believe the winds are currently out of the NW but the band appears to be moving in a NE direction.

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    1. There is a little bit of wrap-around happening, possibly helped by the lake a tad. Light/moderate snow in Fairport. Wouldn't be surprised to see another inch or two today before it moves out.

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  49. I haven't taken measurements but there are no drifts around where I'm at and it looks like a solid 14in or so

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  50. Who is ready for the next one?...

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  51. The way the models are projecting now, it looks like a deep winter pattern is going to try and set up, with below average temperatures and a chance of at least some lake snows everyday. Although this will most likely keep any big storms from hitting us, our snow pack will continue to slowly, but consistently pile up. And I would not be surprised if we get a significant LES event sometime mid to late next week!

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  52. What was the official snowfall amount at the airport?

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  53. So far so good :)

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  54. I thought that we had a shot at a little snow tomorrow from the other system that is passing to the south? Any chance of getting in on some of that?

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  55. This snow lover is satisfied, the amount of snow is perfect, I had a blast sledding with my kids. Have not been able to do this in 2 years! I am not looking for any more snow now, what we have is perfect as long as it stays around for a bit.

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  56. There's never enough snow!!

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    1. Still think snow is fun? Read this:
      http://news.yahoo.com/storm-rakes-half-nation-arkansas-130008974.html

      17 people are dead. And please don't use the ridiculous oft-used argument that it's their own fault because they were driving too fast. Wednesday night's conditions were dangerous at any speed.

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  57. So a bit quieter around these parts for about a week or so. At least it will look like winter during that time, and we just experienced a very gratifying storm so we won't be itching quite as much as we were before.

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  58. The official number at the airport was 10.6". Set a daily snowfall record for yesterday with 8.5" falling before midnight. Could get another little coating or so on Saturday. Not our next "big one" though, sorry!

    Stacey

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  59. Am I missing something or does it look more likely for a good 3-5 inches of Lake Snow between late Saturday afternoon through Sunday?

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  60. What I would like to see, somewhere on this website, is the total cumulative snowfall, to date. On the TV weather broadcast Scott usually announces this number but it is almost impossible to find on the Internet. Maybe it is on the website somewhere but, as I said, it's impossible to find.

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