Written by John DiPasquale:
UPDATE: Scott Hetsko and Stacey Pensgen at 3:30 PM
Above is a forecast estimate of snowfall by the 00z NAM, I believe which is generating snowfall amounts of what we are roughly thinking too from late today through Thursday. It appears that the heaviest snows will fall between about 10 & 3 or 4 in the morning, give or take an hour. This will likely entail snowfall rates up to 2"/hr. at times with even a little lightning & thunder embedded within the heaviest snow bands! Winds sustained between 10 & 25, with gusts over 30 at times will just add to the very bad travel conditions tonight into Thursday morning, & lead to significant blowing & drifting. Temperatures during the bulk of the event should average out in the mid 20s, with wind chills in the single digits & teens. Nasty night ahead for sure! Deformation zone looks to be close to the Rochester area, & whomever is under it will receive more than the 10 to 14" we are forecasting, but for most that should do it. The best chance of receiving the deformation zone snows looks to be across the Finger Lakes, but again it's going to probably be a close call, so we'll see how this plays out. Either way, big snows for all! Enjoy snow lovers!!