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Wednesday, December 26

First Big Region Wide Snow in a Couple Winters!





Written by John DiPasquale:
UPDATE:  Scott Hetsko and Stacey Pensgen at 3:30 PM

Above is a forecast estimate of snowfall by the 00z NAM, I believe which is generating snowfall amounts of what we are roughly thinking too from late today through Thursday.  It appears that the heaviest snows will fall between about 10 & 3 or 4 in the morning, give or take an hour.  This will likely entail snowfall rates up to 2"/hr. at times with even a little lightning & thunder embedded within the heaviest snow bands!  Winds sustained between 10 & 25, with gusts over 30 at times will just add to the very bad travel conditions tonight into Thursday morning, & lead to significant blowing & drifting.  Temperatures during the bulk of the event should average out in the mid 20s, with wind chills in the single digits & teens.  Nasty night ahead for sure!  Deformation zone looks to be close to the Rochester area, & whomever is under it will receive more than the 10 to 14" we are forecasting, but for most that should do it.  The best chance of receiving the deformation zone snows looks to be across the Finger Lakes, but again it's going to probably be a close call, so we'll see how this plays out.  Either way, big snows for all!  Enjoy snow lovers!!

    

87 comments:

  1. John, I don't like the talk on the previous blog about the secondary low taking strength away from our storm. Does this present concern?

    Thanks
    Andy

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  2. Hi Andy, There is quite the surge of moisture from the storm to the south right now over Kentucky, so I am feeling pretty confident still with current snowfall forecast, but anytime a transfer in energy from one storm to another occurs, there is going to be a bit of concern of precip intensity being robbed to the west, so certainly something to watch, but radar trends south look good. Stay tuned as we watch the transfer of energy later this afternoon into tonight & radar trends. Enjoy the snow Andy!

    John

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  3. Thanks John! You bet I will be monitoring news 8 weather team and this blog.

    Love snow storms
    Andy

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  4. No problem Andy. Me too! Thanks for tuning in!

    Best,
    John

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  5. About what time do you think the snow will start? I read the heaviest will be after 10pm and end around 3 or 4 am. I was just wondering what time the snow will start...and how much of tomorrow will be snowing. Also, how is next week shaping up?

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  6. This radar watching is stressful. Hope I don't get dry slotted.

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  7. Is there a potential of significant road closures like I90, 104 ect???? tonight

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  8. Just a question? I know we are getting that big swath of snow coming but what about the transfer to a LP on the coast that appears to be coming up the coast with a lot of moisture? Is this the same moisture we are going to get? I guess i do not understand why that is not going to impact us? Or is that just going east away from us?

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  9. I see that Pittsburgh is pretty clear now anyone know how they made out compared to what we expect?

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  10. From obs. from people around Pittsburgh it sounded like they had sleet and a mix earlier..then the dreaded dry slot cutting into totals. I'm hoping that dry slot fills in as the low transfers.

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    1. Coastal redevelopment should keep the dry slot far away from us.

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  11. i didn't realize there was a new blog started on here, i was posting on the old page wondering where everyone was LOL. Pittsburgh is not that far away from us, and it is not snowing there currently?

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    1. I'm just watching as people are posting observations from around there. Just NE of Pittsburgh has 6 inches on the ground and snow has started again. Also a lot of warnings that the roads are terrible. The reports are civilians so I'm not sure of accuracy.

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  13. It is snowing heavy in Bath! It began about 15-20 minutes ago..

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  14. Is that dry slot of Western, Pa coming our way. That would kill the snow totals. It just does not look impressive on radar right now.

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  15. uh oh not what i want to hear :(

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  16. Hey it's me, Scott here with Stacey this evening. We're watching this storm begin to transfer it's energy to a new storm this evening along the coast. Although guidance is forecasting over 1.2 to 1.5" QPF I think it's overdoing it a bit. I've adjusted our snow forecast down a little bit. I know people on here will complain but it's still a significant snow, just a little lower than what we published yesterday. For example, models forecast over 1" in Altoona for this evening but the dry slot has already significantly reduced the amount of QPF there.

    Bring it on! Not a bust but you should know by now that I forecast what I see and won't be married to old thoughts.

    Scott Hetsko

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  17. What are you thinking totals then Scott? Esp. This evening?

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  18. Great. Figured that would happen and not go the other way. Always a dissapointment here in Rochester. No storm this weekend either.

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  19. The NWS has lowered their totals as well. This storm is going to underperform. Same old story. Why do these storms always transfer energy to the coast??????????

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  20. One of these days we will get a BIG one.

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  21. 8-12" is still a lot of snow... And we need it to transfer to avoid that dry slot! Just gotta hope it doesn't move out as fast as it indicates and we could be back up well over a foot! Idk about the rest of you, but 8" area wide is a win in my book!!!

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  22. It is moving way to fast to dump a lot of snow.
    8" will be the norm. So no BIG deal.

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  23. It's coming down pretty good in the hills of Sparta (north of Dansville). It moved in really fast too.
    Chris K

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  24. It'll come down hard and fast for a good chunk of the overnight, so the bulk of it will happen before sunrise tomorrow. A few additional inches Thursday.

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  25. it will still be impressive and i'm happy we are getting it. it just always feels like we fill up our dinner plate, but before we can sit down to eat someone comes along and takes a bunch of the food off of it! thats the first analogy that came to mind not sure why but its how it happens here so many times. hopefully totals don;t get knocked down again! this is why scott said sometimes they can't accurately forecast until the storm is on our doorstep because of all the veariables involved.

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  26. Snowing lightly in northern Livingston..just South of Monroe County line. Ground is frozen so it's sticking immediately. That's a positive.

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  27. Scott, its very cold up here in Hilton. 23 degrees according to my thermometer. Any chance of enhancement on NE wind now?

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    1. Yes you could get a bump of a few inches, David!

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  28. Bust Bust Bust! Same old story.

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  29. why are you calling it a bust when it has not even started to snow???

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  30. anonymous above, its not a bust....sure its a little deflating when they have to back off on the numbers, but its still going to hopefully be more than we got in a single snow in a few years, so be positive. otherwise go apply for a job at news 8 and see if you can do better please.

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  31. Did you look at the radar we are in nowcasting and that dry slot willm set in and we will be lucky to get 3-6 just like Pittsburgh. We have all that modern weather technology and it stillis useless. Seems to me that forecasting was much more reliable in the 80's and 90's?

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    1. The dry slot will be gone by the time that area reaches here. The storm off the east coast will push moisture into that area and will fill it in. You can already see this happening on Radar

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  32. Look do not want to be a downer. But Scott was smart enough to see this and drop it to 8-12 from 10-14. Pretty soon it will be 6-10 or 4-8 just wait you will see. Not enough there and it is moving way to fast to produce any where near 10 inches. Scott is saying the GPF is over done because the dry slot will come into play then why are there other people saying it will fill in? The early transfer SE is not helping us people. Lucky to get 6 inches sorry.

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  33. why don't you post a name so we can hold you to it if we do in fact get only 6 inches?....id like to congratulate you on predicting that if it comes true, since no one in town is predicting only 6 inches even at this point. would be quite a feat if you get it right. "lucky to get 6 inches"...i'm going to hold you to that mr. downer

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  34. I still think my forecast for 8-9 inchs maybe 10 still looks good.

    It will still be a good storm with stong winds. The cold is here to stay for a while. The lake will also start to get excited here and in the next week and a half. December will end cold and snowy with January looking to start cold and snowy. That is how winter should behave.

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  35. Kudos to Hamlin Plower you did have it pegged a few days ago.

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  36. I just want to know if Hilton is going to get the shaft again. I'm looking at the map and I have to laugh because it looks like it is snowing everywhere but the northwest side. I'm ready to break out the snowblower. Let's get movin'!

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  37. Hamlin has been ccalling for less than the mets so we will see if it comes true. kudos to him if he calls it right in the end. i'm just glad to see snow falling in farmington. where is Andrew and all the other guys?

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  38. a band of very heavy snow is located just north of Bath.... heading north... should be in Rochester later this evening with snowfall rates of 2 inches an hour

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  39. Those posts by Anon calling a bust sure look familiar.

    8-12 inch snowfall sounds pretty good to me. Heck, I will take 4-8!

    I do wonder however Anon, what exactly would make you happy?? A crippling storm with trees down and many without power? This storm should be manageable while still providing the winter we've been waiting for. Cheer up!

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  40. Looking at the radar you can realy see the secondary storm starting to take over. The snow is now starting to fill back in, from the southeast in central PA. We will not be in the dry the slot in western ny. The southern edge of the snow will not cross through our area nearly as quick as it did in southern PA. It isnt as bad as people thought looking at the radar earlier. We will all get our fair share of snow from this one NOT A BUST.

    Have to go in and plow soon, the snow is getting very close to Hamlin I expect it to start any minute.

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  41. Reported By: NYS Thruway Authority CAD: accident on I-90 - NYS Thruway westbound at Exit 44 (I-90) - Canandaigua (Rte 332) starting 5:32:00 PM, 12/26/2012 until further notice.

    Reported By: NYS Thruway Authority CAD: accident on I-90 - NYS Thruway westbound between Exit 48 (I-90) - Batavia (Rte 98) and Exit 48A (I-90) - Pembroke (Rte 77) starting 5:00:00 PM, 12/26/2012 until further notice.

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    1. Charles, Where did you get those updates from? A feed?

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  42. thanks for the reassurance Hamlin, i start to get discouraged when hear all these negative posts. its nice to have the "veterans" on this blog chime in and calm everyone down :-)

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  43. Hamlin, I was also noticing that the recent radar scans are definitely filling in with more snow on the southern edge. Very happy to see.
    Andy

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  44. Just started snowing in Northern Hamlin and the Temperature is 30 deg thanks to the lake. OH BOY!

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  45. Just letting you all know but NWS increased snow total forecasts from 8-16 inches to 10-16 inches


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  46. so we went down earlier, but now we are going up slightly? must be the cold temps making snow more fluffy?

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  47. well Scott is still sticking with his lower totals but NWS is going up so its confusing

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  48. I'll be updating later this evening but I gotta tell you, I may have been premature dropping the numbers a little. It's tough with the temperatures to forecast amounts. Remember that my high end is 16" in the Finger Lakes region right now. No matter what it's gonna be a snowy and fun night!

    Scott

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  49. Aren't you all happy you're FINALLY getting a nice snowstorm???

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    1. Scott! Don't listen to them. We are so excited! Whoohoo! This Southern girl loves snow and my 5 year old wants you to be the highlight of his 6 year old birthday party next year. See! You have fans.:) Again, in lieu of the sad week, this is a wonderful Christmas blessing.

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  50. I am but I would like the snow to get here already up in Ontario.... we are just getting light snow not like all of the reports I am seeing of heavy snow

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  51. I am super happy! Snow!! Already 5" at 6:30 here in Wayland

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  52. Thanks for the update Scott! So happy about the storm.

    FYI- moderate snow and 23 degrees in NE Fairport at 630pm.

    Andy

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  53. Lets party like its 1999....

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  54. Is there any chance of thundersnow tonight?

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  55. Scott I think your original forecast looks good 10-14. I think now 10 inchs north of 104, 12 inchs from 104 to I90 and 14-18 south of I90. Gotta go plow be back later to check in.

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  56. um....um....um.... some very strong radar returns showing up between cohocton and rushville..... and getting bigger fast as it comes north

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  57. I think northwestern Monroe county might be in for a very nice surprise......

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  58. now scott is going back up possibly, and you also hamlin? LOL Scott, i am happy about storm. although from readong some of our posts it sounds like the weather can't please us no matter what :-)

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    1. Some people will never be happy. Don't let them get to you :P

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  59. is it just me or is the wind not really doing much right now? i haven;t noticed any wind gusts and snow seems to be coming straight down..when does wind pick up?

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  60. Just did a Rambo walk in the yard. It's a winter wonderland out there! Snowing heavily with 2 inches on the ground already. Let's not fuss over a few inches and go out and look at this stuff! I haven't seen this in a LONG TIME! A snow plow just went past the house...YES!

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  61. Anything on the horizon with the EURO, shes been on the money last 2 storms!

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  62. NWS makes it sound like minor accumulations sat night if any. maybe they are downplaying it who knows

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  63. Sorry been busy but I still go with my original thougths pretty much. I think the metro will get 12-14 inches by noon tomorrow. Not seeing anything for this weekend. Maybe late next week is something to keep an eye on. Catching up on posts does Scott think that we will get less than was originally thougth? I think the cold temps and wind direction will help.

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  64. solid 5 inches in Bath, been snowing since 3, still snowing, wind blowing, visibility poor, roads slick
    The snow came on very fast, started with flurries at 3 and by 310 had heavy snow and covered roads
    Stuck in Bath

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  65. I wonder when they will issue travel advisories

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  66. You said possible thunder snow David what timeframe might that happen?

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  67. no one should be out there right now unless they have to go to or come home from work...it would make it easier for the plows to do their job.

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  68. is the heaviest snow going to fall once the bands start orienting NE/SW instead of e to w

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  69. What is the radar saying thought is was going to snow really heavy for about 4 hours?

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  70. I haven't looked at the radar all night, just looking out the window every 5 minutes!!! Enjoy everyone!!!

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  71. I think the heavy stuff will be here the next 4 hours and snow rates will be 1 and a half to 2 and a half inches per hour including thunder snow.

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  72. Regarding the thunder snow, I'm not seeing lighting any closer than new jersey right now. That is according to my Mycast lightning app. Do we expect it to develop in our region?

    Andy

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  73. One of the things that David mentioned before and I also felt was the lower the air temp. the better this storm will perform. I say perform in that I always felt if air temps right with that NE wind pretty strong that it would have to I think enhance the snow from the storm. I think that is going to happen that is why I felt some areas including the metro could approach 20 inches. Just what I think. I wonder what Scott feels about that?

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  74. A little over 4 inches just SE of Scottsville. Snowing heavily still.

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  75. Question: in the summer when there is a thunderstorm on radar, you will see red and yellow radar returns. Would that be the case in a snow storm as well?

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  76. The Deformation band is looking like it is setting up across Rochester :) hopefully it sets up more on the east side of Rochester but it looks like it is going to set up west of the city

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