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Tuesday, December 25

ALL SNOW BUT HOW MUCH????

Written By:  Scott Hetsko

Merry Christmas!  The next storm system is taking a great track for all snow in Western New York.  Expect snow to develop from South to North tomorrow evening and continue into Thursday afternoon.  There has been a lot of chatter about lake enhancement from this storm but that's not likely given the speed at which the storm moves away.  It's most likely a 6-12" general snow fall with possible 12-16" amounts where the deformation zone sets up the best.  This may occur in the Finger Lakes region tomorrow night where snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour will fall for several hours.

Rochester and Monroe county will also see several hours of moderate to heavy snow fall tomorrow night and early Thursday.  Remember please that the 12-16" totals won't be for everyone but for a select few where snow falls heaviest overnight into Thursday morning.  Travel will be worst on Thursday morning with snow covered roads widespread across the area.  Stay here for updates on the storm from me, John and Stacey!

30 comments:

  1. Thanks for update Scott and Merry Christmas. One question please. I have seen in the past with this storm track where it slows and retrogrades back NW? Is that possible where it does slow and the NE lake enhancement winds kick in? Thanks

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  2. Merry Christmas everyone!

    I think the problem with a few of you is that you were anticipating a giant snowstorm before there was even any consistent model agreement. Now that it has become apparent that we will not see that happen I'm seeing a bit of bittercasting (mild in most cases). The reality is that we're still in line for a major snow event, even if it isn't that monster a lot of us have been dreaming of.

    Another thing: the time for model hugging is over (ESPECIALLY regarding QPF), current observations (aka "nowcasting") is the way to go from here on out, as our storm has already developed and is centered over northwest Texas. Someone with a better eye can correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems as though the primary low is on pace to track a touch farther north than currently modeled.

    And if you REALLY insist on sticking to the models, note that a number of them still peg our region with well over a foot of accumulation. Others have us barely reaching warning criteria. That discrepancy alone shows why you shouldn't depend strictly on model output for the final snowfall tally.

    Keep the faith brethren (and sistren), and have a safe and very Merry Christmas.

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  3. I am happy with 8-12. I have seen before where the mets say 6-12 and we get much more. You have to be conservative because if you say 2ft and get 10 it does not look good. I cannot remember what year it was but it was before SCott that the mets were calling for 6-12 and we ended up getting 21" becuase the deformation zone set up right over us. Storms are finicky and will do what they will. I am hoping for at least a 12" storm. We will see.

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  4. Agreed...... Were getting a storm. If its 6inches, awesome, if its 12inches, awesome, if its more, awesome. Last year we got nothing.... I would of been crazy happy for a 6" snowfall last year. This storm is going to bring a min. of 6" so be happy!

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  5. Catskills and HV will be in the sweet spot for this storm. I think we will get 8-10 inches for most of us including the city.

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  6. Looking at latest 12z GFS I am back to my original thinking we are looking at 12-15 inches of snow. The sweet spot will be between Buff. and Syracuse. When I look at the map low and behold that is Rochester ha ha. That is what I see and now officially believe. I wanted to see this GFS which I believe is the most reliable run. I also think the winds are going to be an issue.

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  7. We are now in a winter storm warning

    \...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST
    THURSDAY...

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
    WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY
    TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
    EFFECT.

    * LOCATIONS...NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER...GENESEE VALLEY AND THE
    WESTERN FINGER LAKES.

    * TIMING...LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
    AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY THROUGH
    THE NIGHT HOURS AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

    * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

    * ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 8 TO 16 INCHES.

    * WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH.

    * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. LOCALIZED
    WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

    * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
    PRODUCE VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2
    INCHES PER HOUR OVERNIGHT WILL MAINTAIN SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
    VERY POOR VISIBILITY.

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  8. Its going to snow...we will have amounts when it is done and everyone measures it...film at 11!

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  9. I agree on the amounts anon. We are in a good spot so far and I'm excited to see this one play out regardless of numbers.

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  10. Ok. They say 8-16. That is quite a range. Who gets the 8 and who gets the 16??????

    Andrew, no offense, but you are all over the place.

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  11. Sorry Macedon not all over the place! Been pretty consisten in fact check blogs way back had the stormed pegged early. Just thought it was moving too fast and going SE. Also saw that dry zone that scared me. However said I wanted to see the 12z GFS to be sure what was happening. I am on record for 12-15 how about you Macedon? I also would not be surprised if we ended up with 18 inches.

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  12. Point taken Andrew and I understand. The models drive me nuts as well. I would say bthe same Andrew. 12-15 seems correct based on model outputs. It is too bad that we will not get any lake enhancement because more would have been a good bet. Also, the models are trending further West on this weekends storm but weakening it.

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  13. I agree with the post above about being happy we will get 6+ inches. It will be nice for sure. to bad we can't cash in on a snow day from school LOL. 12-15 would look nice....why does scot say 6-12 in general if you guys are so confident of seeing 12+.

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  14. I see they issued Blizzard warnings on the south shore of Lake Erie all the way up to the PA border.....

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  15. hm.... I wonder if we could see blizzard conditions along the lake

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  16. hm...wonder when News 8 team will release their official totals for the storm?

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  17. By the looks of it, 8-12" is going to be the norm, maybe some getting a little more, especially in the bristol hills; seems like all the moisture gets squeezed out up at that elevation. Definitely going to be a snowy couple of days!

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  18. You guys see anything on the horizon after this one. LOL

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  19. If the one that is on the Euro will come west this weekend WOW that is a monster! Still early and you never know.

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  20. I think 12-16" is what our area and south and east will get. I also think that with those blizzard warnings extended through ohio, and western pa now that we might get included in the blizzard warnings a little later today or tomorrow.

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  21. Why do you say that what evidence?

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  22. im no expert. But I think winds over 20mph sustained and gusts over 30 they might put them up by the lake. as to 12-16 models have lots of moisture and I don't see how we get less than 9 or 10 inches of snow from this storm as of right now.

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  23. Sustained winds have to be over 35 for it to be a blizzard

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    Replies
    1. 35 OR OVER FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS

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    2. yeah but we are not even going to be over 35 for any hours

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    3. I think they issue blizzard warnings whenever gusts are expected to exceed 35 MPH for an extended period. Obviously not "true blizzard" criteria, but a lot of the areas currently under blizzard warnings aren't expected to receive sustained winds of 35+ MPH at any point. However, gusts are expected to be that high for those areas, and our region is forecasted to be just shy of that.

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  24. yes, but where the blizzard warnings are right now I do not think their winds will be sustained over 35.

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  25. well I know that I have never seen Buffalo issue blizzard warnings as long as I have lived here in NY

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    Replies
    1. 1993 they issued blizzard warning days in advance.

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  26. well by any means were getting snow and will have blizzard conditions and snowfall rates of 2" per hour wednesday night.

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