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Friday, December 7

Damp & Mild through Saturday





Written by John DiPasquale:

After some showers & mild weather today, it will be mild & damp again Saturday, before a cold front swings through late in the day/early Saturday night.  This will cool us down to near 30 come Sunday morning, which could lead to some slick spots later Saturday night into early Sunday.  It will be chilly with maybe a little sun Sunday morning, but clouds will quickly increase & thicken with a few showers possible late in the day Sunday that may begin as a wintry mix, especially north & east of Rochester.  High temperatures over the weekend will be well into the 40s to around 50 Saturday, but more seasonable Sunday closer to 40 with a brisk wind developing out of east-southeast to boot.

The storm that will generate a little late day precipitation Sunday will hook west & warm us into the 50s late Sunday night/early Monday, before we drop back into the 30s later Monday in the wake of the storm's cold front.  Rain showers may end as a bit of snow Monday afternoon, but at this time it appears most of the precipitation will be over by the time it becomes cold enough to snow.  A little lake effect snow shower activity should occur Monday night into Tuesday, but it will likely be very limited thanks to high pressure building in quickly with drier air.  Thereafter, high pressure should remain in control for the most part for much of the rest of the week with some sun & temperatures more seasonable though, which is much better news for the ski resorts here in WNY that at least want to make some snow.  Daytime highs in the 30s & low 40s, & lows in the 20s will be better for that snow making.  

Pattern change coming up?  A little colder of a pattern next week, & possibly cold enough for some sloppy snow next weekend, but that's way to far out to have much confidence.  Stay tuned to News 8 for the latest.

Have a great day & weekend WNY!
   

48 comments:

  1. when there has been nothing for a long time - I will take sloppy - kind of reminds me of my days of dating

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  2. The storm next week looks to hook West as well. Sorry.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Which one? There's like 4 of them...

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    2. It could..but unless you have a crystal ball that shows if the NAO block builds like the model shows or not...it's pretty much a guess by anyone right now.

      Delete
  3. Any thoughts out there about Christmas week? Yeah, I know it's way way too early. We normally watch Channel 10 (I'd rather watch 8 but my wife insists on 10 - I sneak in watching your weather when she isn't looking). So before they start their "Oh, there's going to be a pattern shift, and tons of snow, and blah blah blah" like they do EVERY year, and scare the tar out of me because we have to drive on Christmas day to relatives' houses, any signs of storms, etc. BUT OH, we HAVE to have a White Christmas, now don't we.

    You guys are great. I remember all the snows starting with '77. I was in 1st grade in Niagara Falls. Most of the kids walked home for lunch. Only 5 of us stayed at school for lunch. That day, only ONE walked back from lunch. We had the whole afternoon to play, and got to leave school early. Boy have times changed.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Did they give the one kid who walked back a medal?
      Parents must have been super strict about school or mom had a date with the mailman.

      Delete
  4. No. Our reward was having a week off school... and having school until June 30th that year.

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  5. My parents talk about the '66 and '77 blizard. I was born in '79 so I missed out. They say the blizzard hit without much notice during mid afternoon. Many motorist where stranded on the road, making cleanup very difficult, which took many days. I would love a blizzard this year that would certainly be a challenge keeping Hamlin's roads open during a blizzard. Bring it on Old Man Winter.

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  6. Everyone talks about the blizzard of 77,-- I know it was epic for BUF, but I don't see any snow records set for the blizzard of 1977 in ROC. Maybe it was more significant on the west side of ROC, but I don't remember anything special about that storm on the east side of ROC.

    I do vividly remember the blizzard of 93 where we had like 25" of snow in 24 hours. I also remember the 1999 storms from ~March 4-March 7 where we had 2 back to back storms that dumped over 40" on us.

    All we can do is reminisce right now.
    Andy

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    Replies
    1. There were no snow records in Buffalo either, the biggest issue was the constant strong wind blowing the existing snow pack into whiteouts and massive drifts. This page has a summary of the blizzard:

      http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/webclimo/JAN28.htm

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  7. So let's pretend there is a storm in the N. Pac that knocks the snot out of the ridge in the Bering Straight area. Pushing the ridge to the West. The ridge Scott was talking about back in November... What happens then?

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    Replies
    1. The PNA goes positive, and with our luck so do the NAO and AO. More tears are shed by ROC snowlovers and I take up writing emo songs set to footage of my dusty snowblower.

      Delete
  8. Even if the PNA still stays positive, the NAO crashing negative like it is projected would definitely bring much colder conditions than what we have been experiencing. The problem with that though there would a lesser chance of getting systems taking a favorable track for our viewing area. That is my two cents, but I am no meteorologist...

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  9. In other words we just cannot win. I think I will move to Canada to get some real winter. Each year winters around here are getting wimpier and wimpier.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. How can you say wimpier and wimpier? We had one LOW snowfall winter in the last 10 years, and this one hasn't even started. Even if this year is a bust, 2 wimpy winters still doesn't offset the 109" average of the last 9 years which is 20" above the 70 year history of 89".

      2002-03 135.2
      2003-04 125.6
      2004-05 113.6
      2005-06 73.9
      2006-07 107.2
      2007-08 106
      2008-09 103.7
      2009-10 89.2
      2010-11 127
      2011-12 59

      It seems like mother nature has a way of evening things out. In the 40's we only average 65" for that entire decade.

      I know this bland weather is depressing, but we have to stay positive and think about the big picture.

      Andy

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  10. I guessed 8 inches for the December snowfall contest and I think I will be too high. Warm next weekend as another storm moves to our West. No snow in the foreseeable future. I feel bad for the ski resorts, snowmobilers and people that make a living hoping for a real winter. The pattern does not look to change. I do not care what channel 10 states. They said December 10th the pattern would change. Not going to happen. Now they are saying the week of Christmas. Not gonna happen.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's going to depend on the -NAO..if it doesn't happen get out the hammocks and shorts.

      Delete
  11. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We're glad that you're blocked too. You may go away now.

      Delete
  12. Todays weather is alittle depressing. The GFS model runs are also not looking good. With that said I have no faith in the GFS model beyond four days. The NAO looks to stay Negative for much of the rest of the month. I am still very hopeful that when the patern finaly shifts we will not be disapointed. I beleive we will get a shot of winter that will be worth the wait.

    BE PATIENT MY CRYSTAL BALL TELLS ME WINTER IS COMING SOON. If we are going to use guesses as forecasts we might as well stay positive.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The pattern has already begun trying to shift, it's just going to take a rather long time. None of the medium range models are really latching onto it either, which is causing some pretty serious model mayhem. It'll be more of a slow step-down process rather than a sudden flip, and by the time this process completes we'll have more typical winter conditions. That -PNA is rooted firmly in place for the forseeable future though, and as long as that is the case the best we can hope for is normalcy. Which I will gladly take by the way.

      When we eventually do get normal winter to stick around for more than a few days it's going to feel completely foreign to us.

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    2. Would be neat to get the MJO going..at least it would provide a little more clarity.

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    3. Phases 7,8,1 or 2 would be nice. Those other phases, particularly 5 and 6 doomed us last season. It would really suck to see the PNA finally go positive only for the MJO to crank it up in an unfavorable phase.

      Delete
  13. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  14. I agree with the post Andrew had earlier before it was removed.

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  15. Sorry everyone but I meant what I said. We've heart this from that guy last year and he went right back to his old ways. I'm sick and tired of his posts and it at our sole discretion to decide the spirit of this blog. Thank you for understanding.

    Scott

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  16. Sorry "heard" from is what I meant to say

    ReplyDelete
  17. I can't believe you are censoring the blog like this! Andrew is often right, even if he goes against what you and everyone else is saying. Wasn't he the guy who was correct in saying that the "really big storm" last year wasn't going to be a really big storm and you criticized his opinion until you drastically changed your forecast to match his, just before the 11:00 news? Please man up and allow Andrew back on the blog!

    ReplyDelete
  18. You can have him, I'm done. Thanks for all the posts everyone. Enjoy Andrew

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I will not enjoy Andrew, because he is a j#%ka%s. Keep fighting the good fight, don't let a single prick with no real authority win. I've encountered this before, he's posting as different people pretending to be supportive of himself, he has zero support from anyone other than himself. His only contributions involve tooting his own horn, his own cocky immature horn. I'll admit that there's really no way to win that fight, but you can't let yourself lose like that either. Besides I know how his "forecasts" end up being right, he just predicts most of the storm activity to miss Rochester which it always does due to U.S. geography, and when it comes to medium or short range activity he goes along with what other experts and models are saying. Not too impressive if you ask me.

      Delete
    2. Andrew can claim he is right ... but he can't tell you WHY he is right.

      Delete
    3. The board is better without obnoxious and rude behavior.

      The admins can do what they want because this blog is their property. If you can automatically block access by ip adresss, that would be great.

      Delete
  19. News 8 is right.. News 8, please keep posting on here, and keep deleting Andrew. Another thing that helps; don't give the option of Anonymous, or typing in our own name. That just leaves to cowards and idiots idiots hiding behind a computer screen, or 35 year old men who live with their parents. Make them log in using their Google, or AIM id, which uses their real name automatically, that will clean up this blog instantly as it has done to others.... My 2 cents

    ReplyDelete
  20. Maybe the weather will become more interesting giving us something to blog about. Personally I would not be to concerned with Andrew he is harmless. It is easy to see he has no clue about forecasting the weather and his followers are just as goofy. The more he attacks channel 8 team the more his 4 year old attitude shines. When the snow finally falls it will be interesting to here how he forecasted it for us all.

    ReplyDelete
  21. What we really need is some snow or even interesting local weather to track. This board picks up in winter and when winter doesn't happen people get antsy. Even something inside 7 days on a model would give people something to discuss.

    My snowmobile misses me.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Beautiful picture out of Minneapolis, MN with heavy snow falling. They are supposed to get 6-12 by tomorrow. Oh well. Very jealous. No snow here for the foreseeable future it looks with storms moving to our west.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Michele in PenfieldDecember 9, 2012 at 5:14 PM

    Scott & Crew, please don't leave us on this blog. YOU ALL ARE THE REASON WHY WE COME TO THIS BLOG. News 8 Weather are the experts, they have the meterology degrees. I truly enjoy this blog as do others, and there still are great people on this blog that are highly appreciative of the time you spend on this blog, as well as highly RESPECTFUL of you and your team and others. Thanks again to Scott and crew for keeping us informed (and hopefully keeping this blog going!)

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  24. PNA is the main culprit.. not counting on the NAO ever again. Just going to wait for the PNA to change. It's been negative for 34 days... it was once negative for 81 days. So unless we break a record it should change no later than near the end of January.

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  25. Does anyone know where I can get historical snowfall data for ROC prior to 1940? The BUF NWS site only has it back to '40.

    Thanks
    Andy

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  26. Does this year's setup resemble any previous years - with a persistenly negative PNA, and a negative NAO and AO - can't be too common.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Does this help?
      http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Levi32/show.html

      Andy

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    2. Andy - thanks so much for that link - I just watched it. VERY informative.

      Delete
  27. What are people talking about on this blog with Scott and his team ending the blog? I have been out of town this weekend and just checked the blog. Do not get why people are saying please do not leave us on the blog?

    ReplyDelete
  28. This rain is really getting depressing especially when you see the beautiful snow pictures out of Minnesota and Colorado. I wish I was there to enjoy the snow. Keep hoping things change around here.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Brett Anderson posted the output from the monthly Euro for the JFM period to his blog on AccuWeather. It's...so beautiful ;_; I really hope it verifies. That long range model has the best track record out of all the long range models so we'll see.

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    Replies
    1. I just saw that blog. If I was going to place money on a long range model, it would be that one. Of course it isn't always right so we shall see.

      Delete
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