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Wednesday, December 12

More Mild Weather Building In

Written by John DiPasquale:

The mild, essentially snow free pattern continues here in the Northeast with some more sun & milder weather developing on the backside of high pressure anchored to the south & southeast Thursday & Friday.  Temperatures will climb solidly into the 40s Thursday & near 50 Friday!  Now, I see all you snow lovers are so frustrated, me being one of them, about the lack of snow last winter & now to begin this one.  It appears there will be shift in the pattern, more favorable for picking up some snow to round out this month in the form of general & lake effect snows, but no major cold seems to be in store.  In all my years of experience forecasting, in the end everything almost always balances out, so with that said, when the pattern breaks it will likely happen in a pretty big way.  The BIGGEST question is when?  So it looks like it starts next week, but will it continue to evolve to colder, more wintry pattern heading into January, or will it revert back to what we've been seeing??  That's the million dollar question.  When the pendulum swings the other way it should be impressive.  Tick-tock...tick-tock...tick-tock....

Have a great day WNY!  

53 comments:

  1. Not sure of my standing on the blog but did want to say that the storm early next week I feel will be a monster! The problem will be the cold air available. However, this storm will be big with a lot of moisture somewhere. I am not counting our region out yet.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Farmington Snow LoverDecember 12, 2012 at 2:36 PM

    I know John said everyone usually always evens out, but it didn't seem to last year. Any thoughts on that trend? I don't look at nor do i know how to intepret models. On a side note, is there a way for me to not have to type in my name every time i want to post, like a way to save my profile? i subscribed to the blog but all that does is send me an email when a new topic is posted by the mets. thanks

    ReplyDelete
  3. Next week will be fun to watch as a Nor'easter develops along the mid atlantic. My main worry is the lack of upper air support for the storm to dig and strengthen along the coast. Baroclinicity not enough, we'll see and watch carefully!

    Scott

    ReplyDelete
  4. The new GFS model shows a pretty good coastal storm even affecting us. Eastern NY would get the most but a NE wind could give us good lake enhancement. I am sure it will change 1000 times before hten but it will be fun to watch.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. At the very least it is something to track besides a 4 month mud season. Like I said few blogs ago..if only we had more solid cold air to draw on.

      Delete
  5. FROM THE NWS: TYPICAL STATEMENT.

    WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ON THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY TRACK
    WELL TO THE EAST...PUTTING WESTERN NEW YORK ON THE INLAND FRINGE OF
    ANY IMPACTS.

    AT LEAST RIGHT NOW. TOO FAR EAST.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Being on the fringe isn't always so bad. See: February 14th 2007. See also: December 25th 2002. We were on the fringe of both of those storms and got over a foot from both. Lake Ontario is our friend in these scenarios. Still very early to be making any assumptions, and besides last time I checked the trend on the Euro was to move the storm a bit further west with each run. Bear in mind also that with the dearth of cold air the storm can still track to our south and/or east east without us getting much snow. So we can't wish for a track too close to us (as if wishing really changes anything).

      Delete
  6. Maybe winter will arrive just in time for the first days of actual winter. I would be surprised if next weeks storm stays inland enough for western NY to enjoy, but who knows. I am hopeful for the end of December and the beginning of January becoming much more winter like. I will refuse to give up yet. We still have lots of cold and snow to look forward to this winter.

    The next few days will be fun to watch new model runs. Lets hope for heavy snow.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Despite the -PNA, the cold air has been slowly inching southward with each front...each warm up has been less than the previous one. Will the NAO be negative enough to support the development of next week's nor'easter?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Let's hope it isn't TOO negative or too west-based, or we'll be watching from the sidelines while areas east get nailed yet again.

      Delete
  8. We are used to being on the sidelines.

    ReplyDelete
  9. The new GFS shows no mid-week storm and the a storm cutting to our West by the end of next week. The beat goes on.

    ReplyDelete
  10. This is not done yet. There will be a strong storm midweek just the details are not exact yet. I am not ready to say that we will not get hit with this one. Things change day to day. Wait until the Sat/Sun. time frame then answers will become clearer.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Channel 10 (yet again) is saying THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW at the end of next week... They always make it sound like it's going to be a blizzard. Any thoughts about this?

    ReplyDelete
  12. who let Andrew back on? What was the vote tally??? I DEMAND A RECOUNT!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete
  15. To understand the "debate" (for lack of a better term) concerning long term/short term TV/Web forecasting one needs to understand certain presuppositions:

    1) Its TV folks! That means that no matter what information comes out of TV Meteorologists and Internet Weather forecasting ratings take priority! This means that the "need" for ratings drives nearly every forecast. No surprise here - thus we get teasers like "pattern change" and "some models show..." or "big changes on the way", "could we get hit with a monster storm? tune in at 11:00 to find out" "Artic BLAST! headed our way" ' Super Storm Sandy"..etc..etc. In short what we get is speculation not accurate honest hype-free forecasting. No doubt some are more adept at this than others (read: Accu-Weather).

    2) Because TV is driven by ratings and money and the fact that science has become an idol here in the West, we get meteorologists calling themselves "the Weather Authority" with the supernatural ability to "Pin Point" forecasting. Coupled with continual claims to be "rated the most accurate" you and I fall for these "authorities" because we want to believe we have some control over those things like the weather that are out of our control. So, we keep tuning in and surfing blogs hoping to hear something that will fulfill our wishes that the weather just might do exactly what we want it to do.

    There's more but I don't want to bore you.

    Suffice to say we will never see the end of the hype or the end of exaggeration in weather forecasting or news of any kind for that matter. Ratings drive the whole show. And that's what it becomes, a show!

    Nothing I have said is meant to denigrate meteorologists or the science behind it. For the most part Hetsko and crew do a good job maintaining that balance between ratings and simply giving the facts in weather forecasting. I respect all the weather people at Channel 8 as well as the other 2 main news stations. However,for less hype and more science I would recommend The Weather Underground or News Ch. 9 out of Syracuse. Let's give those who value accuracy and good science the ratings they deserve.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You're right about ratings however I've NEVER ONCE thought about ratings when teasing the weather or talking about a particular storm. No news director has ever asked me to do so. If that were to occur, I'd tell him/her where to go. The problem is that everyone has access to the data but few can diagnose it properly. It's like WEB MD. You go there looking for a disease to match your symptoms, but you'd be a fool not to follow up with an actual doctor before taking medication. I'm bloated could mean gas or heart disease, I'll leave up to the guy with the degree to tell me!

      Scott

      Delete
    2. Scott..you're such a tease! ;)

      Delete
    3. TV IS driven by Ratings...period. You got that right.

      Delete
  16. What makes News Ch.9 out of Syracuse different than the rest KBC? Just wondering because I use to live in Syracuse.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. More Professional I say.

      Delete
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  18. Best I ever saw was that guy on WGN in Chicago, Skilling I think. The guy gives a very technical forecast. Too bad it doesn't apply here.

    I think KBC has it correct. Rochester mets have to balance hype and science, they are better than most. We just have to try to ignore the teases and hype.

    Ch 8 any early thoughts at this point on mid week storm. Looks like a mix to me so far, sloppy?? I'm probably wrong.

    ReplyDelete
  19. A sincere thanks, KBC. I never thought of it that way! Now I understand the whole TV thing a bit better.

    I just want to say I appreciate this blog and Hetsko et. al, for their pretty much hype-free weather forecasting.

    ReplyDelete
  20. First of all, something needs to be done about our brand new spammer.

    Second, holy hope-killer Batman the models really altered their ideas on the storm next week. Seems like most are OTS or across the 40/70 benchmark, either way it looks more and more like the big cities will be the target zone yet again. Throw us a bone mother nature ;_;

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. But things are heading in the right direction with colder air and possible lake effect, right?

      Andy

      Delete
    2. Colder, yes. For how long remains to be seen, I've seen some outlets say it might still be cold after Christmas. Lake effect is a different story, we need the right setup for it which is nearly impossible to predict at this point, and wouldn't even occur until after next weeks storm if at all.

      Delete
  21. I think you can forget about an East coast storm affecting us next Wednesday, Thursday. New model runs take that system way out to sea. The next minor storm moves West of us and then there is nothing after that. This December may break a record for the least amount of snow ever. A green Christmas looks like it will happen. I say lets break the record.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You are taking operational models verbatim for events that are a week away and nowhere near carved in stone. That's a big mistake. I saw the models too, they don't look great right now but they haven't been very consistent. For example, the GFS went from showing a coastal hugger yesterday to not even having a storm today. I'll throw in the towel if/when the models come to a consistent consensus on an offshore track.

      Even if the storm is a complete miss there is still a northwesterly flow of cold air to deal with afterward, which COULD result in lake effect snow.

      All this negative (sorry, I mean "realistic") thinking can't possibly be healthy.

      Delete
    2. I say lets break the record.

      I'm with you.

      Delete
  22. Whats the story with this idiot spammer about his blog? why can't they block his IP adress or block his posts at least.

    ReplyDelete
  23. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Wow, golfing on 12/13 and it was comfortable-- as long as you walk. Even relatively dry as a bonus. Wetness conditions in April are far worse than current conditions (temps can be pretty similar too). Anyway it was a great bonus walk today.
    Seems the consensus for that Thurs storm is too far east to have a major impact here?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If by "consensus" you mean "no model consistency whatsoever" then yes.

      Delete
  25. I know have been all over today and do not look good. But I believe they will come in line and we are going to get snow next week the question is how much?

    ReplyDelete
  26. 12Z Euro is a textbook set-up for a major snowstorm. The 50/50 and amplified shortwave to name a few. The question is who is going to be in the sweet spot.

    ReplyDelete
  27. I agree Andrew. I think it will be a little to north and east for us initially, but if the blocking sets up in Quebec/Nova Scotia, that storm may retrograde and pull down some real cold air and trigger prolonged lake effect. Definitely something to watch...

    ReplyDelete
  28. The EPO/NPO is trending neutral and as I said before the 12Z Euro is a good sign for someone to get a major storm. A big 50/50 and also the HP and BP are good ingrediants for a snow storm. We will know a lot more this weekend. I will keep trying to predict it because it is the first real hope and as I said before I tell it like it is. I do not hate snow.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Sorry meant HP HB in the last post!

    ReplyDelete
  30. I am not sure what models you are looking at. The GFS has been consistent over the last several runs showing no nor'easter at all and mild weather next week, especially by the end of the week we will back near 50 again. Green Christmas and very little snow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I was looking at the GFS, whose ensemble members still don't agree fully. The operational keeps changing as well, and is quite different from the Euro. We are talking about a storm that is 6 days away, throwing in the towel at this point is inadvisable. And cut the crap about "guaranteed green Christmas," that's nearly 2 weeks away, far too early to tell for sure. And I'm at a total loss as to where you're getting 50 degrees for the end of next week, as both the GFS and Euro operationals show a fairly cold airmass for our region at that time.

      Delete
  31. FROM THE NWS:

    WHILE THE PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE...THE MAJORITY OF
    12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING CHANCE THAT WESTERN NEW YORK
    WILL BE IMPACTED BY ANY COASTAL LOW. THE 12Z GGEM SHOWS NO
    SIGNIFICANT LOW...WITH THE GFS/EUROPEAN BOTH DEVELOPING A COUPLE
    LOWS...BOTH OF WHICH EITHER STAY OUT TO SEA...OR JUST CLIP EASTERN
    PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. 00Z RUNS LAST NIGHT ALSO TRENDED IN THIS
    DIRECTION.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Also from the NWS:

      ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SNOW APPEAR TO HAVE DIMINISHED EARLY NEXT
      WEEK...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 12Z RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN/GFS ARE
      SHOWING PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
      NEXT WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...THIS
      PATTERN COULD PROVIDE OPPORTUNITIES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS
      SAID...IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE...OR IF LATER
      MODEL GUIDANCE WILL SHIFT BACK TO WARMER AND LESS ACTIVE SOLUTIONS.

      Keep the faith, and if you don't have any then gain some. No one likes a sourpuss.

      Delete
  32. Hi Scott,

    Thanks for replying to my post. I still have my signed copy of CH 8's Weather Calender from I think 2003?

    I did not mean to imply that you would ever entertain any request to tease or hype any forecast for ratings. I guess my point is that its inherent in the system itself. That's not necessarily a bad thing. Its how TV Stations and Advertiser make $$. As your viewers, I think we just need to consider that when we hear/see a TV Forecast. It might result in less bloguments (I think I just made that up)on your Blog.

    I read/view/watch several different Weather Channels etc. Having been into weather since a very young age due to my Father's influence (He - served as a Weatherman in the South Pacific - WW2)I learned to listen seriously to as many different weather stations and meteorologists as possible. There's wisdom in numbers! Anyway, I like The WeatherUnderground for their WUNDERMAP and their Scientific Discussion Forecast. While I love News 8's meteorologists (as well as 10 and 13)it just seems that News Channel 9 Syracuse is a bit more professional, at least in certain ways. I don't know for sure but I think SU has a Weather Program so maybe its the Academic side of me? I will say this, I would rather watch Scott than these other guys bcos He's entertaining and professional - Unique!. (I'm not trying to suck up here) But, DUH. I wouldn't post here if I didn't watch News 8.

    I know its easy to sit on the sidelines and rip on our Weather Forecasters etc. Its like Football. How many times do we complain when the Running Back continually runs up the middle? Or, say to ourselves "my Grandma can catch that!" Its perspective.

    I think the kid in me still wants the hype. Maybe you all can hype it only when the flakes begin to fall?

    -KBC

    ReplyDelete
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  37. Still nothing even remotely close to model consistency regarding next week's storm. "King Euro" went from a low well offshore to a low moving from West Virginia to Cape Cod. 540 line up near Canada at the onset. Other models show anything from a southern slider to a low along the coast to an eastern great lakes cutter. Anyone who threw in the towel might want to consider retrieving it for now...

    ReplyDelete
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  39. The GFS has been pretty consistent over several runs showing no storm at all. It looks like it will be colder Christmas week so we can hope for some lake fluff to give us a white christmas. We will not get anything synoptic.

    ReplyDelete

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